Leno moves nightly to primetime (2 Viewers)

[Jason Seaver]

He'll basically be getting Leno's leftovers. Look at it this way: Everybody moves ahead an hour. The folks who would previously have done The Tonight Show will now do The Jay Leno Show, Conan gets the people who previously would have appeared on Jimmy Kimmel Live, Jimmy gets the folks from The Late Late Show, and Craig Ferguson gets people who wouldn't have been booked at all.

 

[mattCR]

Jason-

You're leaving Letterman out of the picture, he will now be the only game in NYC.

 

[Jason Seaver]

No, I think Conan's replacement Jimmy Fallon will be working out of NYC.

 

[mattCR]

Boston's NBC affiliate says they won't carry Leno.. and NBC strikes back by threatening to take away their affiliate status.. I'm wondering if there wouldn't be serious debate on their part whether or not that's a real loss..

NBC affiliate in Boston nixes new Leno show - Television- msnbc.com

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Stripping their affiliate status would be a suicide act for NBC. It'd be one thing if they were number one like the '90s. As it stands now, I doubt any of the other stations in the nation's #7 media market are going to want to dump their affiliation for NBC. If NBC's not careful, it could end up on WZMY in Derry, NH with no newscasts and cult hero Al Kaprielian as their sole local on-air talent.

 

[Scott-S]

I am pretty sure there is an independent station in that market that would love to be an NBC affiliate.

I don't really get how a local news show would make them more money that Leno's new show. But then again, I have always hated local news anyway (mainly due to the local news in my area being really bad).

 

[pitchman]

I bet several other affiliates will announce a similar plan, especially if they have a strong or competitive local news product. The affiliate potentially stands to make far more money from 10:00-11:00 pm when they have full control over that hour's commercial inventory. Even if they have to include the network commercials that air in Leno's program during the same hour (to satisfy their network commitment) the affiliate can still make more money with a local newscast where they control the inventory.

 

[Chris Lockwood]

NBC already owns a station there that they might convert to an affiliate, so they don't need to convince anyone.

 

[TravisR]

I don't know the specifics of the Boston's TV stations but I would think the same thing.

Why does anyone think that Leno isn't going to do, at least, OK at 10 PM? Whether you love him or hate him, he's number 1 in late night so I can't imagine that he isn't going to be able to take some of that audience to another time slot. I doubt he'll be able to beat real shows on ABC or CBS but I think he'll be able to hold his own against the CW or Fox affiliate's local news. If Leno's new show is on and it tanks or is getting beaten by other stations' local news, I'd understand saying the Boston affiliate trying to pull this move but as it stands, they're jumping the gun.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Yes, a Spanish-language station. I would bet most viewers don't even have it programmed into their sets; I didn't when I lived in Boston.

 

[NeilO]

I guess that Boston station wants to compete against FOX's 10 PM news? I presume it had been showing NBC's previous programming at 10 PM. It seems a bit quick to suddenly push your own local news from 11 PM to 10 PM in favor of the network choice without giving it a try.

 

[mattCR]

Telemundo. And, just so that it can be said, it at times beats NBC in the marketplace, and has it's own advertisers who would be displaced.

Miami - Riptide 2.0 - Telemundo Breaks Records, Univision Beats NBC in Key Demo

So, uh, yes, NBC could do exactly that and flip a station. But, they would face some hurdles in doing it because of the content that network airs and license changes.

Could be interesting.

 

[MishaLauenstein]

Maybe they can air Leno at 11:00, just like some of those stations that show Saturday Night Live at 11:35 instead of 11:30.

 

[mattCR]

They had asked NBC to do just that and were shut down cold.

 

[xfile94]

What is NBC thinking? I only watch Heroes, so I don't really have a complaint, but what about people who do watch shows at 10:00? Those shows are just gone, and NBC will become the lowest rated network (they aren't far from that now). I predict NBC will have a new president very soon, because the one they have now has destroyed it.

 

[Chris Lockwood]

NBC is thinking Leno will do better in prime time than some of the other shows they could be airing.

 

[Francois Caron]

To me, Leno at 10:00 is a huge question mark. There's simply no precedent for this.

Also, let's not forget why late night talk shows exist in the first place: they create a revenue stream for local television stations. With Leno moving to 10:00, that transfers a huge chunk of the revenue stream from the local stations to the national broadcaster.

Pitchman, you saw this as a potential benefit for both the national broadcaster and the local affiliates alike, but I tend to disagree with this assumption. One potential backlash is that national advertisers may not want to take such a huge risk on an untested show format, and the local advertisers may not want to swallow the extra cost of advertising at an earlier time.

This reminds me of an experiment the Canadian CBC network tried many years ago: Prime Time News. Back in 1992, the CBC moved their 10 PM national news broadcast to 9 PM. It was a complete disaster.

Could moving Leno from 11:35 to 10:00 result in the same fall-out? Only time will tell.

 

[pitchman]

Perhaps I didn't explain it well or you misunderstood. I never meant to imply that there was a benefit for the national broadcaster. NBC has nothing to gain by letting a local affiliate NOT air Leno at 10:00 pm. What I was saying is that depending on the terms of their affiliate agreement, NBC may not have a choice in the matter. One potential concession the affiliate has to make is that they still have to air the national ads scheduled to run in Leno's program in that same 10:00 pm hour (or elsewhere during prime time by covering their local avails with the national commercials.)

IMO, the local affiliate stands to gain way more financially from a 10 o'clock local newscast. It doesn't need need to get gangbuster ratings to be financially lucrative, either. It's all about positioning and perception. Historically, local news is the place where lots of different kinds of advertisers want to be. I know from personal experience that when I did a media buy for one of the companies I worked for, I paid $300-$400 a spot for the late local newscast that leads into Leno's Tonight Show, while only $75-$100 a spot for a commercial in the Tonight Show. It's simple math really. If an affiliate has an hour of prime time they can control with their own local programming, they are only limited by what the market will bear as far as what they can make on it.

IMO, the networks have no one to blame for this situation but themselves. Sure, competition is at an all time high and the viewing audience is more fragmented than ever, but it seems like nearly every year, the networks find new ways to chip away at and minimize the valuable prime time real estate that was once their province and domain.

 

[Regulus]

Like replacing decent shows with lame "Reality", Game and News Shows, and allocating more and more time for additional Commercials.

 

[Francois Caron]

Drat! Beat me to it!