2007 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[TerryRL]

Adam, "Juno" expanded to 694 more theaters, bringing its total count to 998 locations. Its the only film in the top ten not playing in at least 1,000 theaters.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" $35.6 million ($124.0 million) -20%
#2 "Alvin & the Chipmunks" $30.0 million ($142.4 million) +7%
#3 "I Am Legend" $27.5 million ($194.6 million) -18%
#4 "Charlie Wilson's War" $11.8 million ($34.5 million) +22%
#5 "Juno" $10.3 million ($25.7 million) +201%
#6 "Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem" $10.0 million ($26.9 million)
#7 "The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep" $9.2 million ($16.8 million)
#8 "P.S. I Love You" $9.1 million ($23.4 million) +39%
#9 "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" $8.0 million ($26.7 million) -14%
#10 "Enchanted" $6.5 million ($110.7 million) +54%

The industry enjoyed a great weekend of movie-going as business was up 18% compared to last year and a whopping 41% compared to '05. The top twelve films earned the best final December (3-day) weekend mark in history, pulling in $168.7 million (compared to the former record haul of $165.8 million tally from '03). This week caps what has been the biggest December run in theaters the studios have ever had (pulling in more than $950 million, up from the $936.5 million spent last year).

2007's year-to-date domestic tally now stands at a record-setting $9.603 billion, passing the $9.418 billion mark of 2004 to achieve a new high-water mark for the industry. '07 didn't sell as many tickets as '04 (1.4 billion compared to 1.5 billion), but the studios are extremely satisfied with the numbers.

The industry now pins its hopes on a $10 billion year at the box office on 2008. If not for a major fall slump at the box office in September and October, '07 probably would've done the trick. Ticket prices are expected to rise from the average of $6.85 to more than $7.00 for '08. If the year can pull in ticket sales of about 1.43 billion, than the industry will have its first $10 billion year at the box office.

Disney's "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" easily held on to the top spot at the box office as it was hit with only a 20% dip in business. This one is headed for a final tally north of the $200 million mark, which would be the first for star Nicolas Cage. Don't be surprised if Disney brings everybody back for a third 'Treasure' hunt.

Fox's "Alvin & the Chipmunks" ascended to the #2 slot this weekend as it enjoyed about a 7% increase in business. With more than $142 million pulled in thus far, look for those chipmunks to also have a final domestic tally north of the double-century mark. Yes, Fox is going to do a sequel.

WB's "I Am Legend" took a slight 18% dip in business and will pass the $200 million plateau (the third for star Will Smith) sometime during the next two days.

Universal's "Charlie Wilson's War" had a very strong showing this weekend as it enjoyed a 22% increase in business. Word-of-mouth has been very strong for this one so expect a very leggy run during the next few months.

Fox Searchlight's "Juno" has become this year's "little movie that could" as it saw a massive 201% increase in business as it entered 694 more locations, bringing its total count to 998 theaters. The film's stellar average of $10,320 was the best of the top ten.

Fox's AVP sequel is dying fast as it pulled in just over $10 million this weekend. The film earned $9.5 million on its opening day (Tuesday) and has been declining ever since. The movie's per-theater average of $3,849 from its 2,611 locations indicates a fast fade from theaters.

Sony/Revolution's 'The Water Horse' didn't fare much better as it tallied $9.2 million this weekend, giving it a very mediocre average of $3,318 from its 2,772 theaters.

WB's "P.S. I Love You" was up 40%, indicating very strong word-of-mouth. DreamWorks'/Paramount's 'Sweeney Todd' had a solid showing as it lost only 14% of its business from last weekend. The musical's $6,405 average from its modest 1,249 locations was the fifth best of the top ten, trailing "Juno", 'National Treasure' ($9,298/3,832 theaters), 'Alvin' ($8,610/3,484 theaters), and "I Am Legend" ($7,563/3,636 theaters).

Disney's "Enchanted" rounds out the top ten as it was up an impressive 54% from last weekend. The movie has earned close to $111 million.

Next week will mark the first weekend of business for 2008. WB's horror flick "One Missed Call" will get things going, but 'National Treasure' will attempt to become only the second '07 release to top the box office for three weeks (joining "Disturbia").

 

[Patrick Sun]

It tooks them 3 weekends, but finally the chipmunks overtake Will Smith.

 

[Chris]

I thought it was much better the second time. The first time, it was really the story that got me, the cute jibes and asides.

But seeing it the second time, I really got into the music as well, and something really changed. The first time I saw it, I thought the performance by Garner was kind of annoying cloy-ey kind of stuff. But the second time, knowing how it ends between things, and remembering the note, her desperation early in the film seemed so much more palatable; knowing how it ends for her made her early film agitation far more justified, and so much more emotionally involving.

I don't know if I'd pay to see it a third time, normally, but I found knowing how things end, at least in that aspect, so strengthened the story that it's one of the VERY FEW movies that I would ever say that seeing it again was significantly more satisfying. I think the last film I really felt that way about was "Shawshank Redemption" where the first time I saw it I thought "wow" but the second time "WOW". This had about that same kind of effect; because watching it knowing the second time you pay more attention..

I can't speak more strongly for any film I've seen this year, if you've got coins in your pocket and you're debating films to see, and you haven't seen "Juno" you should 100% make the effort.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates
(5-day)

#1 "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" $55.4 million ($143.8 million)
#2 "Alvin & the Chipmunks" $42.2 million ($154.6 million)
#3 "I Am Legend" $38.0 million ($205.1 million)
#4 "Charlie Wilson's War" $20.5 million ($23.3 million)
#5 "Juno" $15.7 million ($31.1 million)
#6 "Alien vs. Predator: Requiem" $13.8 million ($30.7 million)
#7 "P.S. I Love You" $13.1 million ($27.4 million)
#8 "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" $11.8 million ($30.5 million)
#9 "Enchanted" $9.7 million ($113.8 million)
#10 "The Great Debaters" $9.4 million ($16.7 million)

NS2 is now only days away from passing the $173 million haul of the first NS flick to become the biggest hit in the career of star Nicolas Cage. The chipmunks continue to obliterate industry expectations, while "I Am Legend" passed the double-century mark as it seems on track for a final domestic haul north of the $250 million plateau.

'Legend' also gave 2007 a record-setting ninth $200 million-plus performer for '07 (NS2 and the chipmunks could make it 11 for the year). A total of 27 films passed the century mark domestically during the year, giving '07 the second highest total in history, trailing only the 29 such earners that 2003 enjoyed.

For the first time ever, a year produced four $300 million-plus domestic hits. Also for the first time, a year saw five films earn more than $700 million worldwide (a record-setting two of them passing the $900 million plateau).

Sony's "Spider-Man 3" won the domestic crown with its $336.5 million haul, but it was "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" that dominated internationally as it pulled in a whopping $961 million worldwide ($309.4 million domestically), giving the franchise back-to-back #1 finishes at the top of the global box office. This is something only the 'The Lord of the Rings' series has accomplished.

2007 earned an estimated $9.7 billion, easily making it the biggest year ever at the box office, selling about 1.422 billion theater admissions. That represents the eighth best year of ticket sales since the 1950s.

ticket sales plus respective year's top three grossers
#1 2002 1.607 billion (Spidey 1, 'Two Towers', 'Attack of the Clones')
#2 2003 1.542 billion ('Return of the King', "Finding Nemo", Pirates 1)
#3 2004 1.522 billion ("Shrek 2", Spidey 2, 'The Passion')
#4 1998 1.482 billion ('Private Ryan', "Armageddon", 'Something About Mary')
#5 2001 1.481 billion (Harry Potter 1, 'Fellowship of the Ring', "Shrek")
#6 1999 1.476 billion ('Phantom Menace', "The Sixth Sense", "Toy Story 2")
#7 2000 1.435 billion ('The Grinch', "Cast Away", M:I-2)
#8 2007 1.422 billion (Spidey 3, Shrek 3, "Transformers")
#9 2006 1.420 billion (Pirates 2, "Night at the Museum", "Cars")
#10 2005 1.398 billion ('Revenge of the Sith', 'Narnia', Harry Potter 4)
(figures from the Media By Numbers site)

While the studios are very pleased with 2007's performance, they definitely want to see overall ticket sales increase more significantly in '08. As stated in an earlier post, admission sales of more than 1.430 billion will undoubtedly make next year the first to have total sales of more than $10 billion.

Again, the studios will be extremely happy with this, but they also want ticket sales to come closer to the marks achieved during 2002, 2003, and 2004. Sales of more than 1.5 billion would give '08 a remarkable haul of more than $10.5 billion.

Regardless of how '08 turns out, the studios are expecting a very solid year of business.

 

[JediFonger]

indy4&iron man will smash box office. the rest... i dunno =P. audiences are much more fickle than they were in the past

 

[Pete-D]

I think at some point quality has to figure into the equation too.

There are lots of tent pole pictures for 2008 that potentially could make lots and lots of money, but the question is will they be crowd pleasers?

2007 was a good year, but it could have been far, far better if Spidey 3, Pirates 3, Shrek 3, The Golden Compass, etc. were actually better films, especailly for repeat viewing.

While Transformers was no Oscar contender either it did have the novelty of transforming robots (something the mass audience hasn't seen on the big screen in a real way) going for it, but Spidey 3/Pirates 3/Shrek 3 were going to be compared to their predecessors and when the verdict came out that by and large these were weaker installments, that had to have had some impact IMO.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

It seems kind of weird to put Golden Compass in with those others. While the 3 "3" films were viewed as box office disappointments to a degree, don't forget each one DID earn more than $300 million! Spidey was the year's box office champ, so I don't think you can blame it for some financial underachieving.

Compass, on the other hand, made about 57 cents at the box office. I don't think it makes sense to put it in the same category as three $300 million earners...

 

[Adam_Duncan]

Hi there. Long time lurker making his first post here.

Looking at the Studio grosses this year, I noticed all six major studios grossed over $1 billion in 2007. I believe this has never happened before! Up until the last few weeks of the year, 20th Century Fox were the only major studio under the $1 billion mark. That Alvin And The Chipmunks film really helped them out. No doubt those studios will want to replicate that next year.

I also noticed that Lionsgate had its highest grossing year to date with $368.1 million and a 3.8% share. What's the chances of them getting a 4% market share or higher this year? This company seems like it will be around for a while yet.

 

[TerryRL]

I think this is going to be LGF's biggest year. There's a list of their upcoming releases in the '08 thread.

 

[Tarkin The Ewok]

Terry,

What are the top 10 box office hits of 2007, and how do they compare to each other?

 

[TerryRL]

Domestic
#1 "Spider-Man 3" (Sony) $336.5 million
#2 "Shrek the Third" (DreamWorks/Paramount) $321.0 million
#3 "Transformers" (DreamWorks/Paramount) $319.2 million
#4 "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Disney) $309.4 million
#5 "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" (WB) $292.0 million
#6 "I Am Legend" (WB) $229.1 million ($260-$270 million projected finish)
#7 "The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal) $227.5 million
#8 "300" (WB) $210.6 million
#9 "Ratatouille" (Disney/Pixar) $206.4 million
#10 "The Simpsons Movie" (Fox) $183.1 million
NOTE: Both "Alvin & the Chipmunks" (Fox) and "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" (Disney) will top out in the neighborhood of $220 million.

Worldwide
#1 "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Disney) $961.0 million
#2 "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" (WB) $938.5 million
#3 "Spider-Man 3" (Sony) $890.9 million
#4 "Shrek the Third" (DreamWorks/Paramount) $797.7 million
#5 "Transformers" (DreamWorks/Paramount) $706.5 million
#6 "Ratatouille" (Disney/Pixar) $618.7 million
#7 "The Simpsons Movie" (Fox) $526.2 million
#8 "300" (WB) $456.1 million
#9 "The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal) $441.8 million
#10 "I Am Legend" (WB) $399.5 million
NOTE: Both "I Am Legend" and 'National Treasure' are expected to top the $500 million mark.

 

[DavidJ]

Wow, I had no idea that "The Lives of Others" did that well in the worldwide market. I have been trying (unsuccessfully) to convince one of my friends to see it. I am glad that it did well and I wish more people here would watch subtitled films.

 

[TerryRL]

Total typo with "The Lives of Others". Sorry about the confusion.

As for subtitled features, "The Passion of the Christ" remains the biggest 100% subtitled flick in the history of the industry.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

If that occurs, that means this will be the first time EVER that a Pixar movie won't be in its year's BO top 10. Actually, if I'm not mistaken, Ratatouille is already the only Pixar flick not to make the year-end top FIVE, so its failure to be in the top 10 is even more astounding...

 

[TerryRL]

"Ratatouille" also has the distinction of selling the least amount of tickets among the eight animated features Pixar has done for Disney.

(admissions are estimates only)
1995 "Toy Story" $191.8 million/ 48.1 million admissions (#1 for the year)
1998 "A Bug's Life" $162.8 million/ 37.7 million admissions (#4 for the year)
1999 "Toy Story 2" $245.9 million/ 52.4 million admissions (#3 for the year)
2001 "Monster's, Inc." $255.9 million/ 45.3 million admissions (#4 for the year)
2003 "Finding Nemo" $339.7 million/ 56.3 million admissions (#2 for the year)
2004 "The Incredibles" $261.4 million/ 42.1 million admissions (#5 for the year)
2006 "Cars" $244.1 million/ 37.3 million admissions (#3 for the year)
2007 "Ratatouille" $206.4 million/ 30.3 million admissions (#9 for the year)

 

[JediFonger]

even though many consider it to be the very best out of all of the pixar movies

i think people might be tired of poorly made CG movies and most audiences STILL don't know who pixar is.

 

[Adam_S]

is there a correction made when figuring ticket sales for family movies or do you just use the same average ticket price for that year to get ticket sales?

 

[DavidJ]

Ok. That makes more sense. Still a great film.

 

[DavidPla]

Maybe... but no other animated film can even touch their grosses (excluding Shrek). I mean "Ratatouille" might've made less than last year's "Cars" but it still made over 200 M. Compare that to Dreamworks' "Bee Movie" which made much less than last years "Over the Hedge" which didn't even come close to Rat. Even Dreamworks highest non-Shrek animated movie "Madagascar" doesn't touch Pixar's lowest grossing animated movie.