'DEAL, OR NO DEAL?' Great show, anyone watching? (1 Viewer)

[Malcolm R]

Yes, it's 50/50 that the million is in one or the other with only 2 cases left, but you're not choosing between the two cases at that point. You're stuck with your original 1 of 26 or you take the bank's offer.

 

[Hanson]

Let's think of this differently...

Instead of 26 different dollar values, there are 25 $.01 cases and a single million dollar case.

You pick yours out of 26 -- you have an under 4% chance of the million dollars.

When it's down to your case and one other, the chance that the remaining case is the million dollar case is over 96%. If you were offered to switch at that point, you'd be a fool not to take it, right?

If that's the case, your chance of having the million dollars is always under 4% until the million dollars is revealed. So I've changed my mind back to my original thinking.

Malcolm is correct -- the only way it ends up being 50-50 is if you could keep changing your case after every round. So then, there is no logic to the bank offering you more money at this point -- they should actually be offering you less.

 

[TonyD]

well i'm admittingly not a math wiz but wouldnt the odds go up in your favor every time a case is removed and the million case is still there?

isnt that why the offer will go up while the higher amt's are still there.

if 2 cases are left and one is a million and one is .01 wouldnt the offer be just about 500 thousand.
or about halfway between the differences.

 

[Malcolm R]

I don't think they'd need to offer that much. It would probably only take $250K or so to get the contestant to cave. I don't watch very often, do they ever offer much more than $200K when the large cases are still in play?

Take the guaranteed $250K or possibly end up with 1 cent? I know what I'd do.

It's like an optical illusion of sorts as all the cases disappear. It looks like your odds are improving, but really you're still playing the same 1 of 26 choice you started with. Once you pick that case, you're stuck with it. Your only other choice is the bank offer.

 

[Hanson]

There are two monkey wrenches thrown into DOND that differ from Let's Make a Deal.

The first is that there are different levels of dollar amounts, compared to the flat out prize or booby prize. Like, $100,000 is nothing to sneeze at. So since there is a large pool of values, the dynamics of the game are totally different from just a single prize in the bunch.

The other is that the banker is not adhering to strict rules of probability. Like, if there were two amounts left of $1,000 and $1,000,000, you'd have to offer enough to make the contestant feel like the offer is tempting enough to not gamble on what appears to be a 50-50 chance. If the banker were really looking at this as a game of probability, he could offer $2,000 and proabably save the show a shitload of money, but the contestant would never go for it. For drama's sake, they'd offer $500,000.

Here's my question Malcolm -- if the contest had the same under 4% change of picking the $1,000, why isn't it 50-50 at this point? Or am I just buying into the illusion again?

 

[Aaron Silverman]

I've seen actual offers of close to $400,000. I seem to remember seeing potential offers (the "what case would you have chosen next?" stuff after the contestant takes an offer) of more than that.

After further discussion and consideration, I remain convinced that if it gets down to 2 remaining cases, then it's a 50/50 choice between whichever values are left (million or otherwise). As for the differences between DOND and LMAD -- Remember, we're not actually discussing this game as it's played; just its mathematical relationship to the Monty Hall problem.

TonyD is correct -- the odds go up in the contestant's favor each time a non-million case is opened. The Monty Hall problem doesn't apply here, because the case-openings are completely random. For the Monty Hall logic to apply, the opened cases would have had to be guaranteed up front to not contain the jackpot.

In other words, *knowingly* opening a non-jackpot case doesn't affect the odds of the original selection. However, *randomly* opening a non-jackpot case resets the game. (i.e., after one case is opened, the contestant's case has a 1-in-25 chance of being the jackpot, no longer a 1-in-26 chance, and so on.)

 

[Chuck Anstey]

If you are down to two cases, the odds are 50/50. You need to apply Bayesian probability to get the correct result here. First let's assume only 25 cases for easier math. To get down to two cases while randomly picking the 23 without hitting the $1M number is only 8% (2 cases left / 25 total cases). 8% of the time if the contestant always picks 23 cases at random the $1M will not have been chosen. Now the odds of picking the $1M case up front is 4% but we are given the situation that we are in the 8% case (23 cases chosen at random without $1M found). Odds are 4% / 8% = 50%.

On the LMAD it took me a while to understand it fully but it is quite simple. If you pick a 1 door out of 3 then you will win 1/3 of the time. Now given that it there is always a non-winning door left, it can always be shown (not randomly chosen) regardless of whether you chose a winning or losing door to begin with. Whether they show you the losing door or not (because they always can), your odds of winning are 1/3 by not switching. The odds must add up to 100% (one of the two remaing doors will win) so therefore the other door must have a 2/3 chance of winning. Weird but it makes sense.

 

[Inspector Hammer!]

I hate it when the models that open the cases put on a happy or sad face BEFORE they open the case!

I don't want to know if it's a low number or a high number until the case is open! Lately, i've been lowering my brow as to not see their face when they open the case so that I can't see their 'tell'.

Actually, the thread header is misleading, I have TWO gripes with this show and again it is regarding the models, why do they wait so freakin' long to open the cases after Howie tells them to open the case?

He says "Open the case." and they just stand there, they wait a few seconds and then they open the case. Suspense purposes I guess, but it's irritating lol.

 

[CraigVH]

I watched one last week where it came down to two cases with $750,000 and $1,000,000.00 left on the board. The contestant was given the offer of switching cases so I guess they've added that probability wrinkle

She chose not to switch and her's had the $750,000.00

 

[Chris Lockwood]

> The contestant was given the offer of switching cases so I guess they've added that probability wrinkle

I think they've always had that rule.

BTW, when the 2 cases left were 750K & 1 million, the bank offer was higher than the average of the 2... something like 880K. It wouldn't make any sense to make a lowball offer.

I'm in the camp that says the odds rely on how many cases are left, not how many were there at the beginning.

 

[Inspector Hammer!]

I saw that too, that woman had cojones the size of Jupiter! That episode(s) was actually a bad thing this early in the season because nobody will ever go that far or win that much again i'm betting, not this season anyway.

Another gripe: I'm sick of hearing the family and friends on the side yell out "It's alright, it's okay" whenever the contestant knocks out a high number! No it's not alright and it not okay, do you even know how this game works!? I just knocked out my million and my highest number on the board is $25,000, quit trying to make yourself look noble and brave on television lol!

 

[Scott McGillivray]

Like someone else said...the contestants just seem really fake. Like they are bad actors or something. They either actors or they seem really coached.
I have never seen contestants act that way on any other game show.

Very suspicious.

 

[Patrick_S]

One, they are not actors.

Two, they aren't really coached unless you considered being encouraged to be enthusiastic and be yourself as "really" coached.

They are selected or cast if you prefer because the casting directors recognize that they will be enthusiastic and not freeze up when on stage.

I use to work with the bother of one of the contestants from last year and my co-worker was part of the contestant’s support group. He even got a lot of air time with Howie and I asked him if things were all rehearsed and he said no.