'DEAL, OR NO DEAL?' Great show, anyone watching? (1 Viewer)

[BrianWoerndle]

Of course you do.

There is a 99% chance that you picked 1 of the 99 wrong doors. Monty showed you the other 98 wrong doors, leaving you to switch to the correct door.

In order for your 50/50 odds to be correct, Monty would have to show random doors, which would mean he would probably end up showing you the prize and eliminating your chance to switch doors at all (thus leaving you with a 1% chance that you picked the correct door first)

 

[TonyD]

i dont see the appeal of the show.

i understand the percentage thing can make it compelling, but how many of the contestants are gooing to understand how to do it?

so what it looks like to me is a show with people picking
suitcases and which cases to open, not very interesting.

i tries that link with the 3 doors.

20 times i switched and won 13 times.
20 times i didnt switch and won 6 times.

 

[Parker Clack]

I liked it. Looks like it is going to be on CNBC next week for a couple of days and then nothing. Does anyone have an idea of when it will be showing past next week?

 

[Scott_J]

Parker, I believe it was meant to be a one-week trial event type thing. I don't believe NBC had plans for more episodes after that. But since the ratings seem to have been good, I'd say they'll do it again in a few months. I would say February (the next sweeps month), but since NBC has Olympics coverage for 2.5 weeks in February they may not have room for Deal.

 

[Inspector Hammer!]

That sucks that they're doing it like that, I enjoyed the show quite a bit and could easily find room for it in my weekly rotation if they made it into a regular series.

I'm not saying play it to death like Who Wants To Be a Millionair?, but twice a week would be nice, they must keep Howie Mandel, though. i've always liked him and he was instrumental to my enjoyment of the show.

 

[Scott_J]

Honestly, John, I think the "event" type programming of this show is the way to do it. There's just not much to it (IMO). The show gets tedious quickly, moreso than Millionnaire did. There isn't much to keep the home viewer interested. I watched all the episodes last week, and probably will continue to watch it if they stick to the event status, but wouldn't plan on regularly watching it if they stick in a weekly (or especially more frequent) timeslot. That's overdoing it, I think.

If they do make it weekly or thereabouts, I think they should make it 30 minutes so there's no "fluff" and the game moves faster. As the show is now, the only way to watch it is by recording and FF-ing through all the "fluff" (which is how I watched it last week).

 

[RAF]

This is a perfect show to watch using a PVR (TiVo, et. al.)

You can watch the whole hour show in less than ten minutes. This eliminates all the "right after this commercial..." nonsense and cuts right to the chase. While it's interesting in spots, as others mentioned it gets tedious quite fast and sitting through the endless "No Deal! No Deal! No Deal!" rantings would be a bit much without the "Zip-Zip" Factor of a PVR. You can always watch in real time if something interesting happens (like someone hitting a really big or a really small number). Other than that it's glorified Lotto IMHO.

If I hadn't recorded it I would have tuned out after the first night.

 

[Mikel_Cooperman]

Just what we need another wave of game shows for prime time. No. I am not watching.

 

[Inspector Hammer!]

Mikel, did you even watch any of the show last week? Just asking.

Well, it would be nice if another network picked it up then, like the Game Show Network, that would be perfect.

 

[Roger_S]

I thought it was okay...there just isn't enough substance to it. It's like they took one of the pricing games out of The Price Is Right and made it a show by itself. Whenever it comes back, I may watch it...if there's nothing else half-interesting on.

 

[Scott_J]

In a move that should surprise no one, NBC has ordered additional episodes of Deal, likely to begin airing in the spring. NBC has not announced how many episodes they ordered, or how they plan on scheduling them.

http://tv.zap2it.com/tveditorial/tve...324|1|,00.html

One thing in the article that surprised me is Deal's average audience last week (12.7 million) was higher than Millionaire's average audience (11.5 million) for it's first 5 episodes back in '99.

 

[McPaul]

weird...

to get 25 wins in that LMAD applet:
when I stayed, it took 73 plays.
when I switched, it took 29 plays

 

[Scott_J]

Deal will return for another five-night run beginning February 27th (the night after the Olympics' closing ceremonies), then begin a weekly run on Mondays at 8pm beginning March 6th.

http://www.tvweek.com/news.cms?newsId=9237

(The rest of the peacock's post-Olympic plans are at that link, as well.)

 

[Hanson]

I was watching this tonight and noticed a probability error:

When the woman was down to her case and four others remaining, it said that she had a 20% chance of having a million dollars. This is not correct.

She had a 1 in 25 or 4% chance to begin with, and no matter how many cases (other than 1 million) were revealed, her chance was still 4%. The chance that the million was in one of the remaining cases went up as each non-million case was revealed, but the probability of her having it remained constant.

Although she cashed out at $211,000, they let her keep picking to see what if, and she ended up with her case and one other with the million still on the board. The payoff at that point would have been over $600,000. She was on the verge of tears.

Amazingly, she walked away with $211,000 (an obscene amount of money) feeling really bad about herself.

 

[Francois Caron]

When Howie said he could hear people yelling at home, he probably wasn't kidding. I'm doing exactly that!

The show is incredibly simple, but it can be addictive! However, it also reveals just how greedy some people can become, pushing their luck beyond the point where they should have stopped.

As for last night, both contestants did very well. They left with a lot of money and they should both be very happy with what they've accomplished. It's certainly much better than the time one contestant left with only seven bucks.

 

[Jason Harbaugh]

And that happened twice that night, when they were playing for 6 cases under 500 bucks.

It is a tivo type of show and I'll keep watching until someone wins the million.

 

[Aaron Silverman]

I seriously doubt that *anyone* will ever win the million. There are too many variables -- you have to hit the 4% jackpot *plus* have the cojones to open *every* remaining case. I don't see it happening (but never say never, I guess).

 

[Aaron Silverman]

The Monty Hall problem -- I've been thinking about that. I'm wondering if it's different in this game because the cases that get opened are randomly chosen. The difference is that in Let's Make A Deal, the cases that get opened are NOT random -- they are guaranteed to not contain the big prize. In this show, there is no relationship between the cases that get opened and the case containing the million bucks.

In Let's Make A Deal, if there were 25 cases, then you know that Monty's going to open up 23 cases that don't contain the prize, so you can count all the unselected cases as one choice - a 24-out-of-25 chance. But in Deal Or No Deal, there's no up-front guarantee that every opened case doesn't contain the prize.

So if a person opens every remaining case but one, was there still only a 4% chance of the million bucks being in that remaining case, thus making the probability 50/50 at that point? Someone who knows more math than I do can tell me I'm crazy (but I already knew that ).

 

[Hanson]

Let me preface this by saying there are 26, not 25 cases, so the chance is under 4% of picking the million dollar case. That said...

If it comes down to yuor case and one remaining unrevealed case with $1 million left on the board, the chance of your having the correct case is still under 4% (which is the same as when you started). The chance of the $1 million in the remaining case is over 96%. However...

If there are two cases left, the same could be said for the other value -- you could say you had an under 4% chance of picking, say, $10,000 or whatever is the other value remaining on the board, and the chance of it being $10,000 is over 94%.

Which sounds like 50-50... anyone else want to chime in? The clear difference between this and the Let's Make a Deal scenario is that you can't trade what you have. But if you were given the opportunity to switch at this point, you should, so I'm sticking to my original under 4% probability.

And I'm wrong. There is no advantage switching because both cases are variable. So it is 50-50 at that point. So it would appear that when there are 5 cases left, it is a 20% chance that you have the million dollars.

 

[mark alan]

That is not true. At the beginning, there was a 96% probability. However, each round begins with a new number of cases, and each case has the same probability of having the million. When you are down to two cases, each has a 50% probability of having the million.