Black Panther (2018) (1 Viewer)

[Josh Steinberg]

Don't most studios still go by the 100 day window between theatrical and video release? I know there's some examples of movies not abiding by it but it seems like most do.

It's shrinking a lot further these days for some studios - Fox is getting really tight. Logan debuted in theaters in March, and was out on disc in May (with the digital available in April). But Disney has been holding the line a little further.

We didn't have an "Avengers: Age Of Ultron" disc before Ant-Man was in theaters either.

 

[TravisR]

Marvel films are being clumped way too closely together this year. They are releasing 3 films in 6 months.

It's a gamble but if they're good movies, I think that will keep the audience's excitement up for each movie and that'll keep the money coming in.

 

[dpippel]

I think they're risking "superhero film overload" with a schedule like that. The genre is getting close as it is IMO.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I think they're risking "superhero film overload" with a schedule like that. The genre is getting close as it is IMO.

Most of those "Untitled DC" films aren't happening. They're placeholders for an overly ambitious schedule that has long since been pared back.

I think Marvel Studios will do fine. They release 2-3 films per years, each film is essentially an installment of a long-running television series, and each previous release sets the stage for the following one. The numbers may fluctuate a bit (individual hero movies generally open around $100 million, team-up movies open closer to $200 million), but because they've branded themselves so well and delivered a quality product each and every time, their audience is firmly on board.

But I think that the mass audience can detect the "imposters" for lack of a better word, which is why grosses for non-Marvel Studios productions are hit or mess depending on the perceived quality of the film. They recognize, for instance, that "Logan" is a well-made dramatic film worth seeing, while also recognizing that "Fantastic Four" was not.

In a similar vein, the audience flocked to the solo "Wonder Woman" film recognizing that it was a well-made film, while much of the same audience stayed home for that character's appearance in "Justice League", recognizing that the high quality of one did not automatically translate to the other.

I think the audiences are smarter than we're giving them credit for. I don't think it's so much superhero fatigue any more than there's "drama fatigue" or "comedy fatigue". I think people recognize quality, but with the higher number of superhero movies now coming out, they don't feel the need to see anything and everything in the genre. Studios definitely need to put effort into justifying the existence of the lesser-tier films; it's no longer enough just to have a $100 million budget and a familiar character name.

 

[dpippel]

I don't know Josh. I think superhero films are a bit like this century's westerns. They'll have a good run (and they have), but pretty soon the paying audience will tire of seeing so many of them and they'll become a niche genre.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

To a certain extent I think that's true.

But I think Marvel Studios has built something that is immune from the current wave. I think they can release 3 movies a year and as long as they maintain the current quality, they'll be fine.

But I think, for instance, DC Films (from Man Of Steel onwards) has released material of varying quality, and they're definitely in trouble. A movie featuring Batman, Superman and Wonder Woman should have had both the highest opening weekend box office gross of all time, and shot to the top of the all time list, and didn't come anywhere close. They know they're in trouble and are making adjustments, but it may be too late for them.

Fox also potentially has problems. I think Disney is aware of this, and if/when they take full ownership and control of the studio, one of the things they are likely to do is shut down any superhero project in development which could tarnish the genre in favor of a quick buck.

We've already seen how studios like Lionsgate have killed the YA-novel adaptation genre by putting out too many films of poor quality, and taking smaller books and splitting them into multiple films rather than as single works. That genre is now on life support as a result. The folks at Disney are very, very smart, and I'm sure they've noticed that as well, and will be extraordinarily careful to protect their investment in the superhero genre against that.

 

[TravisR]

I think they're risking "superhero film overload" with a schedule like that. The genre is getting close as it is IMO.

You're not wrong but if they're strong movies, Marvel can pull it off. I think super hero fatigue will be a problem for DC because they don't have that automatic "I'm going to see that" mentality that Marvel or Star Wars or Pixar movies have.

 

[dpippel]

Yep, I agree that DC has a long hill to climb with their history of mediocre or worse (IMO) superhero films Travis. I also agree with you about Marvel, but they simply cannot keep it up forever. Even if they manage to maintain the quality they've become known for indefinitely, it's not a panacea for audience burn-out on the genre in general. In the end, that part of the equation is pretty much out of their control. Eventually this multi-billion dollar gravy train they're riding will peter out. It's just a matter of when.

 

[Malcolm R]

I think it helps that Marvel has a thread of continuity running through each film, so there's a feeling that you "need" to see them all, and in order, to keep up.

There may as well be a voiceover at the end of each Marvel film, "Tune in next time for the continuing adventures of your Marvel heroes!"

DC has been careless in this regard, making statements or showing events in one film that are ignored or outright contradicted in a subsequent film. It just makes them seem inept, and does nothing to help the concept that all of these films are connected and take place in the same "universe".

 

[Sean Bryan]

http://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/black-panther-advance-sales-fandango-1202682839/

Disney-Marvel’s “Black Panther” is outpacing all superhero movies in advance ticket sales for Fandango’s online tickets service, eclipsing 2016’s “Batman v Superman.”

Fandango reported Wednesday that “Black Panther” had topped daily ticket sales in the wake of its world premiere and first screenings on Monday night — even though it doesn’t open in theaters until Feb. 16.

According to a Fandango survey of more than 1,000 “Black Panther” moviegoers: 97% are looking forward to a different kind of superhero movie; 95% look forward to the film’s positive messages; 93% said they couldn’t wait to see Chadwick Boseman in his own “Black Panther” movie after seeing him in “Captain America: Civil War;” 86% are excited to see the film’s all-female guards/warriors, the Dora Milaje; and 85% are intrigued by the film’s exotic setting in the mythical African kingdom of Wakanda.

“The buzz on ‘Black Panther’ is electric,” Fandango managing editor Erik Davis said. “Early screening audiences say it is one of Marvel’s best movies ever, and the positive word-of-mouth is helping drive the movie’s spectacular advance ticket sales.”

The tentpole is heading for a North American opening in the $100 million to $120 million range for the four-day Presidents Day weekend, early tracking showed on Jan. 25.

That would be a similar range to the two most recent Marvel entries — “Spider-Man: Homecoming,” which launched to $117 million in its opening weekend in July, and “Thor: Ragnarok,” which debuted with $122 million on the second weekend of November.

 

[Bryan^H]

In a similar vein, the audience flocked to the solo "Wonder Woman" film recognizing that it was a well-made film, while much of the same audience stayed home for that character's appearance in "Justice League", recognizing that the high quality of one did not automatically translate to the other.

I thought JL was high quality


Black Panther is one of my most anticipated films for 2018. I can't wait to see it.

 

[Tino]

The timing of this movie worries me. Isn’t February when studios dump their crap?

Years ago. Not anymore. Valentine’s Day is attractive to studios. And usually January was the dumping ground.

If anything studios are learning that it doesn’t matter much when a movie is released. If it’s good and there is demand, audiences will come.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

If anything studios are learning that it doesn’t matter much when a movie is released. If it’s good and there is demand, audiences will come.

That's generally a good thing. Jake and I, in particular, have discussed that in depth on other threads.

The problem with most studios is that when something hits big in an "off-peak" month, they immediately move the sequel to the busy season, instead of allowing that to be a tradition. So, the first Deadpool was a hit in February -- that must mean it's time to move the sequel to May! The studio in this case is failing to take into account that perhaps more people saw Deadpool than normally would because it was the biggest game in an underwhelming marketplace, and that when Deadpool 2 is facing off against half a dozen other big budget movies, it might not be the first choice for everyone.

I think Marvel is smart enough to be expanding the calendar not with the goal of developing properties and then moving them to the same two weeks in May that everyone else uses, but is genuinely trying to find a way to get about three mega blockbusters out per year far enough apart that they can each open with huge numbers and not fatigue the audience. And, as a fan, it's nice to have them spread out so it never feels like too long a wait between one and the next, but not so close that it feels like I just did this a moment ago. I think their scheduling has generally been pretty amazing.

 

[Jake Lipson]

That's generally a good thing. Jake and I, in particular, have discussed that in depth on other threads.

If anyone wants to go back and look at the discussion Josh is referring to, the bulk of it happened most recently in the Deadpool 2 thread, after its move into May was announced.

To be 100% fair to Fox, they can't use February for Deadpool this year because Black Panther is in that slot -- but that doesn't mean May is the answer. As I pointed out, early August is without a huge superhero tentpole this year, and that slot worked very well for Guardians of the Galaxy and Suicide Squad.

I think Marvel is smart enough to be expanding the calendar not with the goal of developing properties and then moving them to the same two weeks in May that everyone else uses, but is genuinely trying to find a way to get about three mega blockbusters out per year far enough apart that they can each open with huge numbers and not fatigue the audience.

To be fair, Marvel did use the "let's move it to May" approach with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, but they can do that because they have controlled the early May corridor for the last several years. Also, at the time that Guardians moved, Spider-Man was slated for July 28 (which later slid up to July 7), but my point is that they were still expecting to use that release slot, just for a different property. Fox moved Deadpool to June, and then May, without plugging in an alternative blockbuster into the February frame, which allowed Disney to stake it out for Black Panther.

February was used successfully by Fox for Deadpool, but it is a new release slot for Marvel Studios. I think that what you're saying here is true, Josh, but I'm also convinced that the narrative of Black Panther must lead directly into Infinity War in some way, so it was important to the overall plan that Black Panther must arrive in advance of Infinity War, or we would have missed something. If that's the case, Marvel was sort of limited in terms of their options as to where it could go, and February is smack in the middle between Thor (November) and Infinity War (May.)

I'd also like to bring up something that is going to be controversial, which showed up on Facebook this morning.

Apparently this is the work of the same alt-right group that claimed credit for tanking The Last Jedi score. I think crap like this is exactly what proves the audience score to be unreliable on RT. As we've discussed in the threads for Last Jedi, people who really like a movie won't necessarily take time to go leave an audience score, but people who really hate it will go out of their way to dump on it. And in the case of Black Panther, I'm sure that this all smells perfectly kosher and there's not any hint of racism going on here at all. [/sarcasm]

I am a white male. That being said, I loved Ryan Coogler's previous two movies, and the trailers for Black Panther look awesome and suggest that he has done something really creative and unique within the MCU space. So yeah, I'm extremely excited for it. Racist haters who can't get on board with that due to their "principles" don't deserve this film anyway. And if fanboys are doing this for non-race-related reasons, that, also, would seem to be an equally worthless, futile way to use their energy.

But I do think people should be aware that this "movement" is happening, so that if it does have any impact on the score, we'll know where it came from and that it isn't an accurate representation of how audiences feel about the movie.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I just had a thought -- which may be totally crazy -- but I wonder if Black Panther was scheduled in February in part because February is Black History Month? It's probably too much of a reach, but you never know.

Whatever the reason for the February date, I have my tickets already purchased and am very happy to be seeing a new Marvel movie this early in the year!

 

[Jake Lipson]

I wonder if Black Panther was scheduled in February in part because February is Black History Month?

I doubt that they would schedule it in February exclusively for that reason if they didn't think it would do well here, but you're correct that that tie-in can only help.

Also, just to be fair to Fox...they are putting X-Men: Dark Phoenix out in early November, which is an off-season date for that franchise which has not been used by them before (though it has been used by Marvel for the Thor sequels and Doctor Strange.) A main X-Men franchise title has never been placed outside of summer before...but, they're also in a much weaker position coming off of Apocalypse than they were coming off of Days of Future Past. We'll see how that goes.

 

[TravisR]

I'd also like to bring up something that is going to be controversial, which showed up on Facebook this morning.

View attachment 43628

Apparently this is the work of the same alt-right group that claimed credit for tanking The Last Jedi score. I think crap like this is exactly what proves the audience score to be unreliable on RT. As we've discussed in the threads for Last Jedi, people who really like a movie won't necessarily take time to go leave an audience score, but people who really hate it will go out of their way to dump on it. And in the case of Black Panther, I'm sure that this all smells perfectly kosher and there's not any hint of racism going on here at all. [/sarcasm]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: in the immortal words of the Dead Kennedys, "Nazi punks fuck off!"

 

[Josh Steinberg]

As we've discussed in the threads for Last Jedi, people who really like a movie won't necessarily take time to go leave an audience score, but people who really hate it will go out of their way to dump on it.

Yup. I loved The Last Jedi. I've posted about it here at HTF extensively, but that is the limit to my internet presence regarding this title. I have never posted on Rotten Tomatoes and have no intention of ever doing so, regardless of whether I love or hate a film.

The CinemaScore rating is a far more accurate ranking of audience views, as CinemaScore speaks to people as they are leaving the theater, which ensures that the people being polled have actually seen the movie in question and has an equal chance of catching people who both like and hate the film, regardless of their passion level in expressing that opinion.

 

[TravisR]

And in the case of Black Panther, I'm sure that this all smells perfectly kosher and there's not any hint of racism going on here at all. [/sarcasm]

I feel bad for the people who are looking forward to Black Panther, end up not liking it for whatever reason and then get lumped in with the racists. I know a dude that works at my local comic book store that hated The Last Jedi and left after about 30 minutes but he stopped posting about how he didn't like the movie because he thought it was making him look like a men's rights crybaby or a bigot.

 

[Malcolm R]

I feel bad for the people who are looking forward to Black Panther, end up not liking it for whatever reason and then get lumped in with the racists. I know a dude that works at my local comic book store that hated The Last Jedi and left after about 30 minutes but he stopped posting about how he didn't like the movie because he thought it was making him look like a men's rights crybaby or a bigot.

Kind of like how the people who didn't like the recent remake of Ghostbusters were labeled sexist.

It is possible to dislike a female-centered, black-centered, or gay-centered film without being sexist, racist, or bigoted. Sometimes it's just a bad film, regardless of the cast or subject matter. The knee-jerk reaction by those who enjoy the film to use such labels against those who don't is unfortunate.