Apple event March 9th: Spring forward! (1 Viewer)

[RobertR]

Smart watches still seem like a product in search of a purpose (apart from the typical "look at me with the latest tech jewelry" motivation) to me.

 

[Mark Booth]

Not looking forward to seeing all the "look at me!" pretencious types running around (in person or online) trying to show off their new little gadgets.


Please I hope we don't have to have a bunch of "unboxing" videos posted as well.


Ugh.

If unboxing videos bother you so much, why do you watch them? And if you don't watch them, why do they bother you so much?


According to my wife, there are videos on YouTube about helping women dress for success. Unsurprisingly, I've never watched one. It's pretty darn easy to avoid watching one because I don't go searching for them.


Sorry, I simply don't understand your mindset. It's like the guy that goes to the doctor and tells him that every time he drinks coffee he gets a sharp pain in his eye. The doctor tells him to take the spoon out of the cup. If your eyes (and brain) are offended, simply don't watch them. Simple!


Mark

 

[Ronald Epstein]

 

[DaveF]

My wife is getting an iWatch. I'm not. I can justify a nights-and-weekends iphone (unlike many of my coworkers, engineers who disdain smartphones as expensive and superfluous). But I can't justify a nights-and-weekends smartwatch. If I had a job that benefited from gadgets, I'd consider buying an iWatch for fun, and to take advantage of the silly heartbeat stuff with my wife

But the smart money's on the 2016 or even 2017 updates.

As for Rolex: I never foresee myself owning a $10,000 watch. Doesn't interest me. It's an interesting question, of Apple will sell more 5-digit luxury watches than the biggest name on 5-digit luxury watches. But I agree, I don't understand the market for $10k smart watches that will be just as obsolete as a $350 smartwatch in 2017.

 

[Clinton McClure]

I don't understand the smart watch angle either but I also don't discourage anyone from purchasing one.

I had the chance to buy a Rolex for a reasonable price almost 20 years ago and opted for a Seiko instead on the advice from my jeweler. He had both watches in his shop and they were around the same price. According to him (and I understand it may have just been his opinion) the movement in the Seiko was superior to the Rolex and would keep better time. I still have the Seiko but haven't worn it since I bought a Fossil almost 15 years ago.

 

[Mark Booth]

Before Apple officially announced the iPhone in January 2007, there was much speculation that it was coming and what it would do. I remember reading comments on forums from folks that said they had no need for a "smartphone". As long as their Motorola flip phone could make a call, it was all they'd ever need. They predicted the rumored iPhone would be a flop and Apple would soon go out of business.


Almost entirely because of the iPhone, Apple is now the most valuable company in the world. Gee, I think those doomsayers in 2006 kinda got it wrong!


I don't think the Apple Watch will reach the success level of the iPhone. But I do think it is going to surpass the sales and popularity of all previous "smart watches" combined, by a wide margin!


Mark

 

[DaveF]

Interesting. Less gold by volume, might make the gold aWatch less expensive and more scratch resistant. .
http://leancrew.com/all-this/2015/03/apple-gold/

 

[DaveF]

And final speculations, with price predictions
http://daringfireball.net/2015/03/apple_watch_prelude

 

[Mark Booth]

Gruber guesses $1599 for the 42mm stainless steel with link bracelet. If that's the price, I will NOT be buying an Apple Watch. The 42mm SS with link bracelet is the only model I'm interested in. But not at more than $1,000.


I think Apple is going to price them lower. They do, after all, want to sell the darn things.


Mark

 

[Ronald Epstein]

Yeah, first of all, I am finding out there are two Apple watch sizes and the approx. $350 price is for the smaller one. Am I understanding this correctly?


And the watch band? I am interested in the band below. If that drives the watch to a $700-$1k price point, then I may have to reconsider.

 

[Ted Todorov]

...(unlike many of my coworkers, engineers who disdain smartphones as expensive and superfluous)...


As for Rolex: I never foresee myself owning a $10,000 watch. Doesn't interest me. It's an interesting question, of Apple will sell more 5-digit luxury watches than the biggest name on 5-digit luxury watches. But I agree, I don't understand the market for $10k smart watches that will be just as obsolete as a $350 smartwatch in 2017.

Your coworkers, unless they are retiring in the next couple of years, will *all* end up getting smartphones, because dumb phones/feature phones will be gone from the market very soon, and the bottom line smartphones (Android or Windows) will be the same price anyway.


I certainly have the same experience as you have with Rolex's (my last few phones were ~ $70 Wenger (Swiss Army watches - stainless steel with bands like this http://www.wengerna.com/platoon-swiss-watch-0941-104but bought from Amazon for the price mentioned above).


But -- and clearly we have no idea if Apple will offer upgrades for Edition buyers for newer models at a discount or not -- when we are talking about people who buy Rolexes - probably the majority of them have collections, so whether they last a lifetime or not, it doesn't matter if buying half a dozen Rolexes it is just as easy for them to be buying new Apple Editions every few years.


It is also true that these days many of the Rolex, etc. purchases are in the expanding upper class Chinese markets. My guess, considering the roaring expensive iPhone success in China it will be the center of the gold Apple Watch Editions as well. So how we feel about it may not be that important (but may, or may not hurt Rolex). As I have stated before, obviously the Apple Watch could fail. But if they do succeed, good luck to the high end Swiss watches: they will really need it.

 

[DaveF]

Yeah, first of all, I am finding out there are two Apple watch sizes and the approx. $350 price is for the smaller one. Am I understanding this correctly?

Keep in mind these prices are merely speculation in the tech echo chamber nothing announced yet.

But yes, there are two watch sizes. Some guess they will be priced differently.

 

[DaveF]

Gruber guesses $1599 for the 42mm stainless steel with link bracelet. If that's the price, I will NOT be buying an Apple Watch. The 42mm SS with link bracelet is the only model I'm interested in. But not at more than $1,000.

I think Apple is going to price them lower. They do, after all, want to sell the darn things.

Mark

Monday's event will be interesting. No matter what the pricing really is, significant numbers of people will be wrong and surprised. Should be a good show in the gadget blogs the next week.

 

[DaveF]

Your coworkers, unless they are retiring in the next couple of years, will *all* end up getting smartphones, because dumb phones/feature phones will be gone from the market very soon, and the bottom line smartphones (Android or Windows) will be the same price anyway.

Is "very soon" in five days or in five years?

 

[Ted Todorov]

Is "very soon" in five days or in five years?

Obviously closer to five years, but I would guess less than that (like 2-3). The reason is that low end Androids (by which I do mean also AOSP Androids) have already dropped under $50. Whatever the difference between that and dumb phones currently is will be zero long before five years. Also, the profit margin for non-smartphone is currently zero, or indeed negative (Apple + Samsung currently own above 100% of the profit margin so that means that all other companies put together are losing money). Sooner rather than later the elimination of non-smartphones manufacturing will happen.


Now keep in mind that a similar thing happening to watches (if it happens at all) will take at least as long as it did for phones, which roughly, is say 10 years (2017) - from the release of the original iPhone.

 

[DaveF]

I've no doubt once smartphones are priced like the cheapest cellphones -- and have no data plan cost -- even my holdout coworkers will concede.

But that's still a few years away.

 

[Sam Posten]

Joanna Stern says she expects (against the hive mind) that the 12" air will be a BIG part of the show tomorrow... Hope she is right!

 

[DaveF]

It's going to be a long day at work tomorrow, waiting until I get home to watch the keynote video and check in here on reactions

 

[Clinton McClure]

I'm sure I'll spend a while reading the thread tomorrow evening when I get to my hotel room.

 

[Patrick_S]

Before the fan boys get all up in arms and start with stupid "hater" comments let me state I think the Apple Watch will be successful. Do I think it is a threat to high end jewelry watches like Rolex and others, no not at all. I think both will be around for our lifetimes because they serve different segments.


Apple will make it's bread and butter on the lowest end watches, they are after all targeted as a mass market offering. High end watches like Rolex and others are not marketed to the masses, they service a niche market and will continue to do so.


Let's be completely realistic here, people don't buy high end watches to just tell time. People buy them because they are beautiful, they are status symbols, they are fashion accessories, etc.. That is not going to change as smart watches, which are at their core are disposable tech, become more and more popular. People are still going to want fashion watches.


The Apple watches I have seen first hand are rather utilitarian in their look, they simply are not beautiful in a jewelry sense. They have clean lines but no one is going to look at one and say, "wow that is beautiful". (I have not seen the highest end ones so I can't offer a comment on those.) People are going to buy them for their functionality.

Yes, assuming that watches of the Rolex kind are still being used in a generation. Do you think that non-smartphones will still be in use a generation after the iPhone was originally released in 2007? Back then the overwhelming majority of phone were not smartphones, and I am sure that plenty of them were very nice.

I think the idea of people not using traditional watches in a generation or two and is laughable and the non-smartphone comment is not a valid comparison. Cell phones are tech, disposable tech, and are not meant to be used for many years. High end watches are meant to last a life time. Besides with the limited battery life of smart watches there are times when a convention watch is going to be preferred.

...when we are talking about people who buy Rolexes - probably the majority of them have collections, so whether they last a lifetime or not, it doesn't matter if buying half a dozen Rolexes it is just as easy for them to be buying new Apple Editions every few years.


It is also true that these days many of the Rolex, etc. purchases are in the expanding upper class Chinese markets. My guess, considering the roaring expensive iPhone success in China it will be the center of the gold Apple Watch Editions as well. So how we feel about it may not be that important (but may, or may not hurt Rolex). As I have stated before, obviously the Apple Watch could fail. But if they do succeed, good luck to the high end Swiss watches: they will really need it.

People that do collect high end watches do expect them to last a lifetime.


The bolded comment, Swiss watch makers don't need luck, they are a niche market and will continue to be so even as smart watches take off.