Looks like Image Constraint Token (ICT) won't be used until 2010 (1 Viewer)

At least according to this article...

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060521-6880.html

Considering how many HDTV owners don't have an HDMI connection that would be a smart move to boast sales on players. Being an owner with Component only I hope its true.

I'd suspect this may change due to P2P piracy issues earlier than 2010 unless something is done about the problem. The whole point of the ICT was because of P2P piracy, and if the encryptions get cracked, I'd expect ICT to pop up alot sooner.

The guys who have planted that semtex bomb under my house and have a wire running to it, also promised not to use it until 2010. I really like them so much more now.
Yet, I'd rather they defused the bomb, i.e. removed the device altogether. I would even start to believe them more readily then.


Cees

I'm sure there are a lot of bootleggers that would really like them to do that as well. Fortunately, there is no indication that even with ICT flagged discs that the result of playing one will mean any kind of explosion or even equipment failure, but I guess we will have to wait for a ICT flagged disc to be released to know for sure.

Can they leave 1080i alone and only encrypt 1080p? That seems like a good long term solution. Even by 2010, there would proably stille be quite a few HDTV's left with no HDMI input.

Last night someone was shitting on my roof. Totally illegal, of course. Had no right to be there in the first place. No right at all, sir. Cost me money, to clean the mess up. Not to mention other disadvantages of that dirty SOB sitting there.
He felt insecure from that bomb too, he too wished it would be defused.

You know what? That wish of this stinker didn't make my own desire for a removal any more invalid. Nor did it enhance my trust in the persons holding the control button.


Cees

We've covered this before Cees and I can't recall if we agreed or disagreed, but the primary problem is P2P. That's why the ICT exists in the first place, and it's why it'll be used someday.

The studios don't particularly care what kind of inputs are used, so long as it doesn't result in widespread disemmination of their material for free.

Old Pirates, the one's who've been bootlegging for years and selling at flea markets, have never made a huge impact on sales outside of China and other countries where there is no enforcement.

But now there are new Pirates, P2P has put the ability to pirate in many people's hands who otherwise would not have pirated material. Turn on the computer, couple of mouse clicks, download TV/Movies for free and in very good quality.

With the new Pirates have come more brazen entries into Piracy, now they not only sell at flea markets and to a few locals, and give it away to their friends, they E-bay it too under the guise of legal material.

P2P has facilitated the creation of a whole new order of Piracy, one which has significant financial implications. Further, it's only going to grow from here.

Lawsuits haven't stopped it, or slowed it down. Governments have failed to address widespread theft. The Studios have to do something to insure they don't lose the majority of their revenue streams, and this is it.

So Cees, if you want "The bomb diffused" you're first going to have to go after the Timer. P2P. As long as the P2P Timer is ticking, the ICT explosives will remain armed.

Cause and effect...P2P -> ICT.

Ryan,

You've indeed brought that forward before.

But in this case it's beside the point: we're talking about that fact that the ICT won't be used at all (supposedly until 2010). Not about against whom it would be used if it was. It isn't. So no measure against P2P people, or whoever.

And we're also talking about the question of whether we, the consumer, should feel happy, warm and reassured that it won't be used until 2010.


Cees

Détente in our time.

Not to be overly cynical, but anyone who believes that what is discussed in the boardroom is the same as suggestions given to the public is a bit naïve.

The studio will do what they believe to be in the best interests of their stockholders. This is not necessarily the same as what is best for consumers.

No one should be surprised if some of the studios come to believe that setting the ICT bit is in the best interests of their stockholders. Especially if we begin to see bootlegs that can (or reasonably can) be attributable to HD pirating.

The scenario that would cause Hollywood to renege is P2P. As such, it is on topic, as it is the only thing that threatens to force the ICT flag to ever be used.

Hollywood is out to protect it's library, not sell hardware. They couldn't care less what you're viewing it on or through as long as you're buying it.

If you don't want Hollywood to renege, and you want ICT gone, there's the way to get it done. P2P has to go away.

Otherwise, the ICT flag will be in full force, probably well before the 2010 deadline. Since Toshiba's already given up a direct path to the encryption scheme for HD-DVD, ICT will kick in rather quickly.

What do you mean by this? Are you saying that Toshiba has provided an easy path to cracking the encryption scheme? If so, why would ICT ever be invoked, since it is only there to prevent piracy via analog? Pirates certainly would not be pirating via analog if the encryption was broken, so it seems like there would be no point to invoking ICT at that point. Or are you saying that ICT will be invoked because Toshiba decided against making HDMI mandatory for high definition transmission?

From the reports I've read, Toshiba used an Intel processor with standard PC memory and a computer drive to build the first gen HD-DVD Players, running a custom Linux kernel.

So basically they used computer parts on an OS that is characterized by people with extensive computer knowledge and a habit of hacking. A couple of ROM's needing dumped isn't going to slow them down, heck the X-box 360 has already been hacked in under 1 year.

You couldn't hand them a bigger free ticket. They'll hack out the encryption code and the only thing remaining that will protect HD-DVD content from rampant piracy is the ICT flag. Only forcing downconversion and HDMI will slow it down, and that probably won't even completely stop it. The kernel will still be around and theoretically might be able to be used to completely bypass Protected Path Video.

The studio will do what they believe to be in the best interests of their stockholders. This is not necessarily the same as what is best for consumers

Yes, but 'feels like' studios are walking a path farther away from what is 'best' for consumers than ever before in upcoming years. And "consumers" or more properly a lack of; do affect "stockholders".

I would gladly place that "semtex bomb" under all the P2P's 'like' style units in the world if that would stop the CP scheme nightmares coming to my HT system future and present. Require the purchase of a gamers-only capable display that goes along with the stations with whatever incompatabile version of CP controls are required. (the deluxe version comes with a 50” screen).

In the boardrooms I'm estimating the 'talk' is how best to move consumers into renewable use revenues and there is a percent of the activity in CP controls solely geared towards accomplishing that...having nothing to do with studio concerns about piracy. Work towards an infrastructure of a business model I don’t intend to support in my home AV.

What are the estimated loses in piracy of films/broadcasts in America Vs other countries? I read an article this last week, which posted the numbers in the category of computer software. America was at a lower rate than I would have dreamed, lower than locales like: - New Zealand?!?

I ventured to one P2P site that tracked total downloads, listing something on the order of 15 million downloads for just 10 movies(Can't remember the exact number). Judging from the numbers shown on just this single site, it was probably something on the order of 20-30 million downloads across Movies and TV.

Exact numbers are impossible, no one knows how many would've been rentals, how many would've been "Skip it", how many were packrats, how many ended up as burned copies at flea markets, and how many would've been purchases. But the implications are staggering. Considering I can think of about 6 other forms of P2P which aren't as easy to identify how many copies are transfered, it's extremely possible that at this point we're talking about P2P transfers in the hundred million or more range.

P2P piracy is just mind numbing in how much it is transferring, and how popular it is becoming.

What makes it even worse is how insidious it is, people clearly now feel a sense of entitlement to P2P Pirate TV/Movies. Common themes in the discussion go something like...

"If Hollywood weren't making so much crap I wouldn't have to Pirate it!"

and

"I wouldn't have paid for it anyways, because it's all so bad, so it doesn't matter!"

But it's all just rationalizations. If it really was so bad that you wouldn't pay for it, then why waste time downloading it? It would've been at least a rental, because clearly these people actually wanted to see it.

Another common theme is "I use P2P to do (Insert X), and there's no other way this easy!" Except that's not true either, there's myriad programs that allow for downloading a large file from one remote computer to another without P2P, various chat programs for instance.

The reason it's insidious is because people are using these justifications everywhere, in every walk of life, in order to Pirate. Even here, I've seen these defenses, in a forum dedicated to the love of film. Embracing the thing that'll destory it, all in search of the free pass.

Ryan,

"Renewable use revenues" = pay-per-view.
(If I understood Mary correctly.)


Cees

Considering that New Zealand has more sheep than people (the population is smaller than the City State of Singapore), I don't expect that the industry is that concerned about their losses.

Considering that New Zealand has more sheep than people (the population is smaller than the City State of Singapore), I don't expect that the industry is that concerned about their losses.

Numbers were also behind China & Japan.. population density growth in China far outstrips America...although you could argue much of that population is still rural concentric.

Cees: Yes.
I am indeed though doing a certain amount of smearing the lines between entertainment providers/entertainment hardware and PC's right now...(as the industries themselves all are...and each concern me). Edit function: last night - was not taking. I had added ...its why I shy away from the HTPC arena as a consumer.....I don't like all the complications or ramifications.

Any info that passes from your IP directly to another Person's IP is P2P. So unless everyone has an email that can accept huge file sizes, and usually isps limit emals to less then 5 megs, no one would ever be able to directly send a file to anyone else without P2P.