Since WB went BluRay Exclusive, Any SD Fans Going Over? (1 Viewer)

[cafink]

Today? It's been more than ten years since DVD was introduced. Though I am somewhat skeptical about the idea, I would not be altogether surprised if, within the next decade, Blu-ray became the de facto standard the way DVD is today, a decade after its introduction.

But Glenn didn't say that Blu-ray would become the standard format after a few years, the way DVD did. He said it would happen as soon as the format war was over. The general opinion seems to be that, with Warner's move to Blu-ray exclusivity, the war is all but over and will indeed be officially finished within a few months, certainly by the end of 2008. Do you really believe that the studios will stop producing DVDs by the end of the year? Not even VHS died that quickly, and it was up against DVD, probably the most successful consumer electronics product in history.

 

[JohnPhi]

nope, haven't changed my mind yet. I still have tons of dvd and enjoy the upconversion.

I am more likely, but have no definite plans.

And Glenn, you are messed up. Even though the format war is over or close to it, the mere fact that there was one and now a million people are just finding out that what they have is junk, will still hurt the overall succes of the HD format. Of those million, some will move to blu, but some will say screw all this hd crap. Also, you mentioned cd and dvd killing vhs and cassette, but lets not forget that in audio, we have actually seen a decline in quality, ie itunes and i pods. Sacd and DvD audio did not replace cd's. Why, because cd's are a cash cow, as are dvd's. The only way they would ever phase out dvd is when the majority of america owns a HDTV, whcih they don't, and they would have to show a huge interest in the format.

Let us also not forget, that at this point, most of blu owners are so through the ps3

 

[Travis Brashear]

Funny this question is being asked now! A little history--I do not own a HD set, but plan to within the next month or so courtesy of my tax return (55" Sony). I had been secretly hoping, ever since I learned how much more storage capacity Blu-ray offered over HD-DVD, and never finding a comparable advantage to HD-DVD's specs over Blu-ray's, that Blu-ray would win the format war. Which brings us up to this week; I had every intention of buying the SD version of 3:10 TO YUMA this morning, expecting that a move on my part to Blu-ray would happen much later in the year. I found out, rather by accident, though, that there are a healthy handful of bonus features on the Blu-ray version not present on the SD. And that's what made the final sale for me--I was prepared to move into Blu-ray happily within the year but if the studios are going to be smart (evil?) enough to load exclusive features on the hi-def versions and pare down the SD counterparts, then I'm sold on the new format right now.. So today--I'm still chuckling and shaking my head at my own impulsiveness--I bought my first Blu-ray title, at least a month before I'll be able to buy a set and player with which to enjoy it! As many have said, I'll also buy SD titles not likely to be on Blu-ray for some time (today, too, I bought the SD of ZODIAC: Director's Cut), but I think I'm officially buying Blu-ray for all newer film releases effective immediately.

 

[FrancisP]

I'm going the other way. I'm going from hd-dvd back to dvd. There were some movies that I put off because I was hoping they would show up on hd-dvd but since they aren't I will buy them on dvd. I have no interest in bluray. However I am so upset with Warner that I have cut all Warner releases out of my dvd lists for the time being.

 

[Francois Caron]

Now that the format war appears to be over, this is a perfect opportunity for me to upgrade both my aging DVD player and HT receiver. The DVD player is a second generation Sony DVP-S500D DVD player which is now starting to produce a rattling noise when playing discs, and that's if the player can read them at all! The remote for my Onkyo TX-DS656 receiver has failed, and the receiver itself only decodes Dolby Digital and not DTS, and again if the DD decoder works properly.

I'll be upgrading both components. The DVD player will be replaced with a Sony BDP-S500 Blu-Ray player, and the receiver will be replaced with an Onkyo TX-SR605 receiver. The biggest surprise is that both these upgrades will cost me $250 less per component than what I've originally paid for the original components! A 400% upgrade for 25% less money!

The rest of the HT set-up doesn't need to be upgraded any time soon and can easily accommodate the new components. I'm especially glad I'll only need one cable between the DVD player and the receiver for both sound and picture, cutting down on the cable spaghetti behind my component rack.

So in my case, the move from SD-DVD to Blu-Ray is mostly based on the need to replace failing components, which happened to coincide with the end of the format war.

 

[Paul D G]

I'm barely holding on to the fence these days. I saw SUNSHINE in the theatres and found it so visually stunning I was serious debating if I should get the SD or Blu version, even tho I don't have a Blu player yet. Should I buy it SD then only to have to buy it again when I go HD, or rather Blu as it seems to be?

Seeing a Blu display at Best Buy showing a clip from DAY AFTER TOMORROW that looked nearly 3D didn't help things.

$300 is my price point for a new player and Blus are nearly that price now. I figure by June I'll be looking to pick one up. I'm a Sony man and all my stuff is Sony. They'll have to come out with a wider variety of players, too, for me to switch.

BTW - in the end I bought SUNSHINE on SD. I figure by the time I go Blu I'll be able to pick it up in Blu cheap. Plus I don't see any new titles coming out in the coming weeks that I'm interested in so that will probably be my last new release purchase for a while now.

-paul

 

[Joe Karlosi]

 

[Joe Karlosi]

Yes, I agree. It was mainly the convenience of a digital disc over tape and vinyl as opposed to "quality" which ultimately convinced average consumers. In the case of vinyl, though, I suppose people felt the audio quality was an improvement in the sense of "no scratchiness and pops"... although some stilll prefer the sound of a vinyl record.

 

[Ray_R]

I'm a slow upgrader myself and I purchase alot of other region titles. I seriously doubt alot of titles will actually be on any HD format for awhile. Look at how long it took to finally have Kenneth Branagh's HAMLET on DVD? Looking at my owned and wishlist in my link I have dozens of titles to repurchase and actually buy.
Funny that I actually only own 1 BD title and four HD titles. I truly wish there'd be more catalog titles to purchase in High Def.

 

[Charles Ellis]

I say "wait for the smoke to clear". This reminds me of the Beta/VHS battle of 20 years ago, and I started out a Beta owner, so I know better now. Once a superior format has been stabilized, then I'll buy. On the other hand, if the Blu-Ray prices for discs and players come down a bit, I'll be there sooner!

 

[Mark-W]

YES. As a fence sitter who also waited for the DIVX vs DVD debacle to be over this means I will start buying Blu-Ray discs where there is an option between SD-DVD and Blu-Ray.

I will also start looking into the best Blu-Ray player to meet my immediate needs. I didn't want to start looking at them before now, because too much reasearch would have made it too difficult not to buy one.

Like many others, my first DVD purchase was Blade Runner,
It will also be my first purchase on Blu-Ray.

I do want a stack of Blu-Ray discs before I get the player, as it just
makes it more fun. So, I am probably a few months away from finally
"turning Blu."

mw

 

[David_B_K]

Posted by Glenn:
Glenn, this is the exact opposite of how supply and demand works. You've got it backwards, and apparently, you do not drive a car. If you did, you would notice that when demand is greater, gas prices soar. When demand lessens, gas prices drop (a little) in order to increase the demand again. Items go on sale (or on BOGO if it is HD media) in an effort to stimulate sales. If demand is great, the supplier has the option to make more $ on his product. If there is not demand, that means he cannot sell his products, so he lowers his prices as an enticement to the consumer.

If BD players and media go down in price it will be because there is not enough demand for them at their present prices, or that the suppliers are trying to create the demand.

There is no way the manufacturers of players and media are going to simply issue a fiat that "SD is dead! Buy BD or do without". Too many people would elect to do without, and the vendors would no longer make money. People are in business to make money. No one was forced to upgrade to DVD or CD. The old media (VHS, LD and vinyl) did not go away until the demand for them lessened to the point that it was no longer feasible to produce them anymore.

If/when we reach a point that HD media catches on and the demand begins to seriously erode that of SD, then we might see a phasing out of SD. But not until then.

I think you are confused because of the way the "war" was fought. It was not merely two formats competing. The studios taking sides had much to do with the choices people made, so you seem to be thinking that studios now decree what must be so. They were able to do that with two niche HD markets, but will be unable to do so with BD over SD. Not if they want to stay in business. You sell what people want.

 

[DaveF]

That's true for a fixed output of the item. By your reasoning, DVD players should still cost $1000, given the huge demand for them! And this is seen with the Wii -- more demand than supply so the Wii holds its price, and even commands a premium via secondary markets.

But in general as demand increases, supply increases, and so price will eventually decrease: more companies will manufacture and sell players, increasing supply -- and competition -- and prices will fall.

So the previous poster is exactly right: as demand increases, price will certainly fall.

 

[David_B_K]

No, nothing I said was wrong, and Glenn and you appear to be confused. Your post about Wii proves my point. Yes, DVD players are popular, but supply has definitely outpaced demand where DVD players are concened, so the price is lower. I've got 3 in my garage that are not being used, and 2 that are being used. There are now more DVD players on the market than there are people who want them. Sure, they are popular, but so many people make them, and many are imported from China, that scoring a DVD player is no big deal. However, add something rare to the mix, like say, an all-region player that does upconversion and PAL/NTSC conversion, and it will cost a bit more.

My fist DVD player cost around $450. My next one was $239, then $169 and they kept getting lower. Now $100 will buy a much better player than my old $450 one. But, it took close to 10 years for that to come to pass. I bought my first VHS in 1979 for $1000. A blank tape for that machine cost $24.95.

Demand alone cannot lower prices. The demand must be followed by increased supply or the deal's off. That's why OPEC cuts production when oil prices fall. The supplier can cut prices just to create a demand (witness the BOGOs on HD media), but he runs the risk of going out of business by giving away the store.

 

[Robin_B]

That doesn't make any sense either. Are you saying there are more people wanting HD players than there are players? not from what I've seen. Of course player prices are going to come down as more people buy them. It's extremely unlikely demand is ever going to exceed supply as far as HD players are concerned.

 

[DaveF]

I think we're in violent agreement I agreed with your summary, for a fixed supply in the midst of increasing supply: prices rise. But increased demand for a mass market item as a rule leads to increased supply and then increased competition and decreased prices.

So, sure, if there's a sudden surge of demand for BR players this month, they will be scarce, and prices will increase on the secondary markets. But certainly production will increase and prices will be dropping in the coming months.

In a competitve marketplace for mass-produced items, increased demand naturally leads to decreasing price.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Glenn's statement was nothing more than fanboy hyperbole. Like I mentioned earlier, the super-pro-high-def-format camp can't/won't comprehend that the vast, vast, vast majority of people haven't already jumped onto any particular high-def bandwagon. We started to get "why do they even make SD-DVD?" comments months ago - it's like these people have no clue that 99.9% of the video-on-disc market remains SD.

The Washington Post ran an article today that mentioned SD-DVD sold 2.4 BILLION discs last year compared to 14.2 million BR or HD discs. I'm sure the numbers will change this year and there'll be more high-res discs sold, but I'd be willing to bet SD-DVD will still outsell high-def formats by at least two BILLION.

So the fanboys need to take the proverbial chill pill. If BR replaces SD-DVD, it's gonna be at least five years, and probably much longer - if ever...

 

[Glenn Overholt]

Whenever a new technology emerges, the "first" buyers are not only paying for the machine, but the new technology too. That is why every year or so, the prices on DVD players has gone down. After the 'factory' pays for the expenses it had in order to manufacture the new equipment, they have a lower price.
I don't even want to get into the oil market because their prices are set on Wall Street, and go up and down depending on what 'some' come countries do in relation to the world's political situation. If any one of those countries does something wierd, the price of oil, which is all based on future's, goes up some more. Your thinking would imply that if the base price of oil is $55/bbl, then today's price of about $100/bbl would mean that almost half of all oil production has stopped. Prices are high because the political situation is tense.

Glenn

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Oh, I think vinyl is clearly the best-sounding format - when reproduced appropriately. I prefer CD not because it objectively sounds better than good vinyl - it doesn't - but because it's more convenient and also less vilnerable to defects. It's really easy to damage a record but not so easy to harm a CD. Also, I can play them anywhere, while records stick me at home.

So that's why I bought into CD back in 1985: convenience and clean sound that won't ever deteriorate. I got into LD less for the improved picture and audio - those were nice but not crucial - and more for the OAR presentations and the extras. DVD took LD and made it better, so those factors remained important. Again, I like the improved quality as well, but it's more the niceties of DVD I enjoy, and I think that goes for a lot of people.

That's why it did so well - and why CD succeeded. It's immediately obvious the advantages those formats boast, and they're evident everywhere: at home, in the car, on a trip, etc. High-res formats will look better on big displays, but if you're watching one in the car or on a portable player or a smaller set, who cares?

 

[Mark_TS]

moving to BR?

nope.

Watching the huge NY financial systems undergo meltdown-and weve only seen an eyelash's worth of whats coming so far--I think BR will be the next to sink-SONY has it on some VERY expensive life support-which they cannot really afford-as they are much in need of it themselves.

Having a job, food on the table and gas in the car may soon become MUCH, I repeat, MUCH higher priorities for A LOT of people -rather than perfect black levels or better detail.

Adding to that-90% of the population are unaware of HD-or even give a hoot.
So the war is now between the heavyweight champ-S-DVD-and the 90lbs weakling-BR.

Sorry to be upsetting anyone, but a year from now BR will either be gone-or a mere curiosity like SACD-still manufactured-for a select, highly refined and educated group of connoisseurs. A glass of Cabernet on that.

If Toshiba-HD- or Warner-had thrown in the towel BEFORE Christmas I might have upped the chances for BR slightly

But look at all the poor chaps left holding HD/HD players.
They should not to feel slighted though-they will soon have some company, I think, holding SONY players.

just my $.02....better make that $0.25 thanks to the Fed Bernake and inflation
Not to be a Cassandra, but look around you. really look.