Great article on all the post format war doomsaying... (1 Viewer)

[Gregory Vaughan]

I addressed that last time you brought it up. This is starting to go round and round. Buying an HD player doesn't affect portability in any way. Buying HD movies does. DVD had exactly the same barrier to adoption.

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

But that was just as true when people moved from VHS to DVD.

I think "portability" is a very small issue. We're not talking about the kind of portability like being able to listen to thousands of MP3 songs anywhere you go on something the size of a deck of cards or smaller.

Most folks who would want that "portability" probably already have a sizeable collection of DVDs and/or have lots of "family friendly" titles. And I guess most of them really would not care to upgrade their entire collection either -- maybe just certain portion of favorite titles. And they can continue to benefit from their DVDs for the purpose of "portability". I mean how many people need HDM quality in their bedroom, on the laptop, in the kids' playroom, etc. anyway? I sure don't. And if they do buy into BD, they will eventually have those extra players in the bedroom, laptop, etc. down the line even as they grow their BD collections going forward.

Yes, the issue might come up for some folks. But it can easily be addressed w/ a well thought out response, and I'd think most would be satisfied enough w/ such responses...

_Man_

 

[Marc Colella]

Yes, but even if they were priced the same as a DVD player now - people would still have to needlessly spend money on these players just to be able play BD movies in the car, bedroom, etc. It's even more ridiculous since they probably don't even have an HDTV in those places - so all they really gain is the ability to play the movie, which they would've had all along if they just stuck with the DVD anyways. Nevermind the guilt they'd have to overcome by already replacing players in their homes that are only a few years old.

That's quite a bit to ask of the average consumer.

 

[Marc Colella]

Yes, but buying a Blu-Ray player is pointless if you aren't going to buy BD movies for it. Why would the average Joe buy a player just to play DVDs? And when they do buy BD movies, they can't be played in any other player around the house, etc.

The difference this time around than the VHS-DVD transition was that VHS was very long in the tooth at that point, DVD is still young right now. And DVD offered so much more over VHS, whereas Blu-Ray doesn't offer much over DVD.

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

Com'on. How long did those people take to get DVD into their bedroom, their cars, etc. etc.? By the time they're ready for that w/ BD, the hardware prices would likely have come down enough while their existing players would probably also be ready for retirement too. And in the meantime, they still do have their existing DVD collection -- and can still opt to buy certain titles in DVD too just like I used to buy certain kids titles on VHS for a few years after I got into DVD (and stopped partly because I didn't want to try to hunt down yet another new VCR when the last one died ).

BTW, if people are *that* serious about "portability", they must be using them quite a bit and will wear them out fast enough, IMHO. Certainly, at least some of their players will not still be working great another 4-5 years from now (assuming they are relatively new) me thinks. Do you have kids? My kids wore out a couple of Toshibas after 2-3 years each (and plainly broke a Philips w/ flimpsy disc tray after ~3 years), and it's not like that's the only thing they ever do either.

Players aren't built to last forever you know...

_Man_

 

[Marc Colella]

By the time these people are ready to replace the DVD players in their bedroom, car, etc - will Blu-Ray be relegated to niche status at that point? Companies will be willing to dump money into a format for only so long when the current format is still generating lots of revenue for them. At some point they'll have to give up. When that time is, noone really knows right now.

In the meantime people are buying 2nd, 3rd, 4th players, etc.

I don't think I know anyone who had their DVD players die on them - and many of them have kids. It obviously happens, but how often? And even today, when they die - people will go and buy a $40 player to replace it. How long will it take for Blu-Ray players to drop down to $40?

I don't mean to sound like a doom-and-gloom kinda guy. I learned a while ago that you have to be realistic and place yourself in the average consumers shoes. The transition is a tough sell this time around - especially when the current format is the biggest video format of all time and is only 10 years old, and only 3 or 4 years old for most people. The studios are still happy with the revenue from DVD sales - even if it has dropped in the last few years. They aren't desperate to drop the DVD format - and by hanging on to DVD, they can't fully commit to Blu-Ray.

I personally don't know anyone (who's isn't a home theatre enthusiast) who feels the need to move to a new format. DVD is still new to them and they're extremely happy with it in all regards and are committed to the format - even though they own HDTVs.

I expect the format to remain a niche, but I'm ok with it - and so are some on this forum. We're all just speculating anyways - and it's all part of the healthy discussions.

 

[Jesse Blacklow]

Huh? Where are you getting this "3 or 4 years old" from? It's pretty well established that DVD was a household item by 2001 or so.
[/quote]I personally don't know anyone (who's isn't a home theatre enthusiast) who feels the need to move to a new format. DVD is still new to them and they're extremely happy with it in all regards and are committed to the format - even though they own HDTVs.[/quote]And most of us were saying the exact same thing in 1998 and 1999 about DVD.

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

True that. We're all -- well, most of us anyway -- just basically shooting the breeze here. ;D I don't mind BD staying niche to an extent. I really don't want to see LD-like pricing (and slowness in releases). I'm fine w/ the current trend though (other than Fox/MGM's pricing and lack of extras) and expect the studios to pick things up some in terms of releases (and moderate reductions in prices) in the not-too-distant-future...

_Man_

 

[Jari K]

Perhaps here lies one point. I´m not sure, that do all Blu-ray (or just "high definition")-supporters yell in the forums that "Blu Ray is going to be massively successful!". Many are trying to point out, that if we "unite" for the common cause and rally behind the Blu-ray in some ways (this doesn´t mean that you have to buy those overpriced Fox-titles suddenly or something), it´ll "make it" and perhaps after XX years it´ll replace DVD. This all can happen in time. It just takes certain amount of time.

People are not stupid. At this point it´s far too early to declare that "Blu Ray is going to be massively successful!", BUT it´s also damn sure, that it´s too early to "doom" the whole format.

There are people in the forums (some probably just a bitter HD DVD-supporters, sadly) that like to spread this "doomsday"-talk and some try to act like they´re somehow more knowledgeable than most of us here. It´s that type of talk (calling other "naive" or something) that irritates people, that certain "tone".

Sure, that "tone" goes in both ways and all that, but do some of these people really believe that their "doomsday"-talk will be popular in the *"high definition*-forums? After all, most of us post here because we like "high definition", buy the Blu-ray-releases and enjoy the 1080p-quality/lossless audio. And we do it *now*, every day. It´s quite sad, if the "format war" was the main reason why people bothered to post here in the first place (this seems to be the case with some people, since several "known members" don´t post here anymore after the war ended)...

I can again post my tired, old argument: We now have Blu-ray. You´re "in" or "out". Doomsday-talk won´t change anything. There are no "secret facts" that us Blu-ray/high definition-supporters ignore or sweep under the carpet. We know the risks. Like people *should have* known the risks during the war.

But, we survived the format war and all the bitter talk. So we´re not going to "stop" now. Doomsday-talk? Bring it on! "King Kong ain't got S**T on me!"

 

[Michael Reuben]

I recommend a different approach. If an argument is old and tired, drop it.

You can't argue a doomsayer into becoming a cheerleader for HDM. People have their points of view, and only time will tell whose predictions will come to pass.

Personally I'd rather spend my energy viewing the latest HDM output and discussing what I do or don't like about it. To me, at least, that seems like a better use for an enthusiast's time.

M.

 

[Jari K]

(post removed and moved by Jari K)

 

[Michael Reuben]

So, Jari, let me get this straight.

Now that there's been no "doomsday talk" in this thread for a day or two, you really felt the need to import some from elsewhere?

Who's really fanning the flames here?

M.

 

[Jari K]

Do we have some kind of personal thing here?

I personally find it very interesting, if a big player like MS is saying that downloading will "take over" quite soon (sooner that we think, based on the source). So now we can´t post links to those type of news?

I´ll move the post then..

 

[Paul_Scott]

probably the main reason Sony continues to be bullish on the future of Bd, despite overwhelming consumer apathy after 2 years towards HDMs in general, is that the main Bd player now (and likely to be in the future) is also Sonys covert movie download system. If they can make the PS3 as ubiquitous as a cell phone or a PC, then they are well on their way to owning the future dowload experience. That is the only way they can possibly be justifying the continued astronomical costs of blu-ray in the face of such indifference. That's why they couldn't afford to lose the format war- while on the other hand MS would have liked for Toshiba to win it. There is a distinction there.

 

[ChristopherDAC]

I do think it would be very wise for the studios to include a barebones, feature-only DVD in every Blu-ray package. That way you have the "portability" without either having to buy (or already have) a separate DVD copy, or the hassles associated with combo discs. Personally, I think Bandai Visual's "single-inventory" solution for Wings of Honneamise was elegant (you couldn't buy the DVD at all without purchasing a BD or HD-DVD), but "the masses" might feel put upon by having the high definition version "forced upon them" at the necessary higher price point. On the other hand, since DVD replication costs are pennies per unit, there is no strong objection I can see to taking the BD package, which already has MSRP $5-10 higher than the DVD (and less likelihood of being discounted downstream), & putting in a "bonus" DVD. In this way, of course, HD starts to look from a certain perspective like a value-added feature, which could be a good thing.


As for the PS3 being a "covert movie download system", I really don't think that's Sony's model. I have observed before that Sony was not going to give up on BD because they had no incentive to. Even if they dropped BD as a movie format, they would still have to keep pressing discs & building drives for the PS3 and for the disc-based High Definition "Professional Disc" recorders they are selling to TV stations & others. Toshiba had no comparable secondary markets for HD-DVD, so they could drop it at any time.

 

[Michael Reuben]

I never said any such thing. I just find it very interesting that, for a guy who says he wants to move beyond the format war, you somehow always find a way to remind us of it.

M.

 

[Paul_Scott]

...dbl post

 

[Jari K]

And I find it interesting that from the all recent posts and threads, you chose me to your target.. I´m at your side!

Sure, you can accuse me of being too "frank" or a person that wants to respond to the anti-BD talk (sometimes to the issues that are best to leave alone - or ignore them), but you can take this to the bank: I really want that this bitter debate/talk will be over soon. But what can I say, "just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in"..

Yes, we ALL should look in the mirror every once in a while. Including me.

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

Yes, I agree it'd be a good idea if the studios provide some means to include a barebones, movie-only DVD for their BD titles -- I've mentioned that on several other occasions elsewhere. That would certainly help the "portability" (or rather 100% compatibility) issue.

Failing a free inclusion of barebones DVD, I think they should at least try what Disney's doing w/ some of their recent releases. Provide an upgrade rebate/coupon that effectively slashes the cost of owning both formats down to something palatable for those who really need it. I don't think paying say $5 more to have both formats should be too much a problem provided it's a premium option we get, not something forced upon every BD buyer (like w/ the HDD combo disc).

As for ending the doomsaying talk, Jari, I'd agree w/ Michael that it's probably not wise to import more such "news" here -- and certainly, it made me wince some when you more or less baited for some action regardless of the smiley. The posting of such "news" was how this thread got started, and I'm not sure it's helped anyone at all. Certainly, I feel bad and foolish for being so aggressive w/ my little spat w/ Professor Echo a couple days ago...

_Man_

 

[RickER]

Yea, yea, downloads are the future. Well, Microsoft WOULD think that, wouldnt they? From where i sit, in Tulsa Oklahoma a good download system, for movies, and not just in high def, is a damn long way away. I will be happy with DSL that doesnt lock up, and COX cable was only good at streaming viruses for the few months i had it. I am glad they say it will be sooner, and not later. Is that like, in the next 100 years, and not 200?
True music downloads are big! But i cant take my TV out of the house. I also know most people MY age dont want to watch TV on a 2 inch screen. Until the people that like to own physical media die of old age, i dont see it going away.