Great article on all the post format war doomsaying...

Discussion in 'Blu-ray and UHD' started by Nick Graham, Mar 12, 2008.

  1. ManW_TheUncool

    ManW_TheUncool Producer

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    Well, we'll have to wait and see, no? DVD looked quite similar at the same point in its life cycle too, especially if you account for time value of $. And it's really only been a few weeks since Toshiba pulled the plug on HD DVD so that we're officially left w/ one HDM format.

    _Man_
     
  2. PaulDA

    PaulDA Cinematographer

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    ^^The continually weakening US dollar and the increasing price of oil are now being felt well outside the "core" area of gas prices. The inflationary pressure of the current "weak dollar" strategy (the dollar is weakening partly owing to economic uncertainty like the sub-prime issue and fluctuating commodity prices, but it is also weakening (as it has for several years now) as part of deliberate effort to offset government debt by paying in cheaper dollars) is now starting to emerge broadly across the economy--and that includes things as diverse as DVDs, groceries and gardening products.
     
  3. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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    The MSRP has not change, just the discounting at the store level. The day of loss leaders is long gone.
     
  4. Scooter

    Scooter Screenwriter

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    WOW. Paul I never even thought of that! Spot on! I see it in food, heating, and many other areas. Of course it would affect pretty much anything between shipping, manufacturing, materials as well as the falling dollar.

    I think so many of us are waiting for a spike due to the format being singular right now, that probably the most obvious reason slipped past. Between your post and Douglas' re WalMart it all adds up.

    DAMN..I wish I would have thought of that!
     
  5. Marc Colella

    Marc Colella Cinematographer

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    That's pretty lopsided anyway you slice it.

    Foreign films are poorly represented on Blu-Ray as well (regardless of era), and most of them are very recent films.

    What would also be interesting is to see the ratings of all the movies on Blu-Ray by using something like RottenTomatoes as a guideline. It's not the gospel, but it can really give an idea of how well regarded (or not) the films are. I would bet that the average rating would be around 50%.
     
  6. Professor_Echo

    Professor_Echo Stunt Coordinator

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    As for "my real agenda", guess what? I don't have one other than to not play Pollyanna on this thread in order to please you or anyone else who has a less than objective opinion on the reality of the situation. My posts speak for themselves so we can agree to disagree and move on.
     
  7. ManW_TheUncool

    ManW_TheUncool Producer

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    You still thinking flash media?

    Personally, the more I think about that one, the more I think I won't want it. At first thought, it sounds cool to go small, but personally, I don't want it so small that they get easily lost around the house, etc. [​IMG] I think 5" optical discs make a happy median in terms of form factor. And honestly, I personally don't see how the studios can sell *me* (and most other enthusiasts) on something "better" than BD for the forseeable future. We'd need to start getting into virtual reality and such before I feel it worthwhile to upgrade from BD to the next big thing. [​IMG] As it is, it sounds like BD might even have enough technological headroom to handle good 3D presentation (at 1080p) w/ the 2 video decoders -- and that's something they haven't even mentioned using yet.

    _Man_
     
  8. ManW_TheUncool

    ManW_TheUncool Producer

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    Well, then, sure, let's just agree to disagree w/out all the condescending labeling/namecalling, ok? [​IMG]

    _Man_
     
  9. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    Thats exactly what I mean. Walmart and other big box retailers must not be seeing the advantage of using DVD as a loss leader anymore.

    I'm afraid that the days of release day $13 DVDs maybe a thing of the past for the most part.

    Doug
     
  10. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    I think if flash goes anywhere you will end up with albums that will hold 50 or 100 flash cards, that you could put on the shelf like a book. Put a label on the spine so you know whats in it. I've already started to do this with DVDs just because I don't have the space to display all of those cases.

    Doug
     
  11. Patrick Sun

    Patrick Sun Moderator
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    Robbers will appreciate those albums of flash cards. [​IMG]
     
  12. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    If they get past my dog and my .45 they can have my movies! [​IMG]

    Doug
     
  13. Bryan^H

    Bryan^H Producer

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    Good point Paul.
    I know Blu-Ray will be around for a long time to come, but fewer catalog title releases, the less interested I will be in the format. For me it's usually 80% older films, and 20% recent films in my collection. I get chills thinking about how Planet of the Apes(1968) will look in Blu-Ray, if released. I have a feeling it's only going to be the "Big" catalog films from the past that make it to BD!
    For now, SD DVD is still my favorite format, and I will support it for the next twenty years or so[​IMG]
     
  14. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    Thats probably about what my ratio of classic to new films is. Apes is the one I've REALLY been waiting for from Fox. Add to that Fantastic Voyage. I'd love to see some film noir or some Randolph Scott westerns on BD, but I'm not holding my breath.

    Doug
     
  15. ManW_TheUncool

    ManW_TheUncool Producer

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    I never really liked that for CDs and DVDs. Those albums tend to scuff up optical discs. But I guess they would work fine for flash. Still, that won't work for me unless it's years from now when I won't have little kids to worry about. And somehow, I wouldn't think they work so well for most collectors since most collectors do seem to like cover art and such things -- as do I though it's not as big a deal to me as to some here. I just don't get excited flipping through an album w/ no artwork to look at before choosing something to watch. Even w/ CDs, I enjoy seeing some artwork.

    I suppose the studios could still sell flash cards w/ BD-size packaging in part to help w/ theft prevention at the retail level and in part for visibility also. But then, I can hear it now from all the green folks about how wasteful it is to intentionally waste plastics, etc. like that. [​IMG] Remember one of the beefs w/ DiVX? [​IMG]

    _Man_
     
  16. Jari K

    Jari K Producer

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    Are you sure that SD DVD will be around for the next "20 years".. [​IMG]
     
  17. Jari K

    Jari K Producer

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    Well, for me your talk is just another version of this recent "BD doomsday"-stuff that´s going on. That´s all. You don´t have any more facts than others here. ONLY time will eventually tell. At this point, both you and me are "right" as much as we´re "wrong". We´ll see.

    I hope that you at least speak without any "HD DVD angle" (=HD DVD was my choice, but now when it´s gone, BD "sucks" and SD DVD "is better" and the masses "won´t switch to Blu-ray ever" and "downloading is coming", etc etc)..

    We truly have the "next phase" going in the forums. "After-war" debate or something. Now it´s "Blu-ray won´t make it", even when it´s far too early to make such statements. But of course, we all have *opinions*, and I guess that´s just fine. We just have to remember that at this point, they´re merely just that - opinions.
     
  18. Cees Alons

    Cees Alons Moderator
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    I'm glad you're promising that.
    Stating that people talk "from both sides of their mouth" and asking insight in "their agenda", instead of concentrating on the content of their posts, isn't exactly considered a serious way of discussing topics here.

    Of course that applies to all other meta-speak, by anyone, as well.



    Cees
     
  19. Jari K

    Jari K Producer

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    I think this is a good point. People are constantly talking that suddenly Blu-ray prices (both hardware and software) should lower to the same level of the catalog DVD-releases or something, and Blu-ray should do the same mistake that HD DVD during the "format war" (=give their players almost for free and not making any real profit).

    Sure, I like cheap prices like the next man, obviously. And the prices should go down in some degree, no doubt. This is all something that I´m sure we all agree.

    But - if the quality Blu-ray players cost around that 300$ and software around 15-20$ (meaning the prices that you actually pay in the online-stores etc), then at least it´s pretty much fine for me (at this point in time!). So: Prices should go down, yes. But saying that they should come down to the level of SD DVD (players and software) is not exactly realistic. If this is that "deal breaker", then SD DVD is always an option. I´m just not sure, that do people have to rant about this all the time in the HD-FORUMS... You don´t have "faith" for Blu-ray? Fine. Many of us here do.

    Blu-ray needs more time. Those prices won´t (=they just won´t) go down in tomorrow. Or next week. But they´ll.
     
  20. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    Sure or even CD jewel case sized packaging.

    Doug
     

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