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Yes, I can see your point... they are different in those respects. But I just found them too similar.

Did anyone think that Ladybird was almost EXACTLY the same as An Education? I mean, both have a young girl finding herself before college, having sex for the first time, dealing with a boyfriend, dealing with parents, learning life's lessons the hard way... I mean, both were very good films...

Yes. It only had one Globe nom.

Best Picture: My Choice: Shape of Water Will Win: Three Billboards ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE My Choice: Gary Oldman Will Win: Gary Oldman ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Rockwell and Harrelson will split the vote... My Choice: Sam Rockwell Will Win: Richard Jenkins ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE My...

Never say never. He has just as good a chance as anyone. But I'd go with Shape of Water.

Because Phantom Thread came out of nowhere.

Why? It was a terrific film. Amazing acting performances.