I don't get all the love for "Michael Clayton" either. Now, I'm not surprised by the love shown "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" as it does have a lingering impact on just about anyone who sees that film, not saying it's the greatest film I saw this year, but it'll make you think of your own...
For me, the only lock for Best Picture nomination is "No Country for Old Men", and then it gets a little hazy. There's no big consensus pick for 1-2 really strong films this year, and it's going to be a free-for-all in terms of campaigning to push the winnahs over the top in the balloting.