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I was talking about The Shape Of Water when I wrote the post you're quoting. I honestly don't know what to predict. I know a lot of people think Three Billboards will win the big award, but it wasn't nominated for Best Director, and generally speaking, if you are not nominated for Best...

Call me crazy, but I still find it extremely unlikely that the Academy gives its highest honor to a horror film (particularly one which may have plagiarism issues). The situation reminds me a little bit of Gravity, where that seemed potentially poised to win it all, and took a lot of the...

I really don't agree with that criticism of Three Billboards. To begin with, I don't know why the author assumes that Three Billboards is meant to be the definitive take on middle America. It's a fictional town, not meant to be a definitive representation of a real place. I've heard McDonagh...

I'd agree about it being a first step, but I wouldn't say that he's redeemed yet. But it was certainly a good ending.

Respectfully, I'm not sure I agree about redemption.

Travis: I don't.

I just saw Three Billboards on Tuesday night and I really liked it. And it never seemed unrecognizable to me as America. I'm not sure if this is actually going to sound like a compliment, but it played both big screen and small screen for me. By that, I mean, it worked as a standalone movie...

I really enjoyed the movie, but at the same time, it didn't really break any new ground for me, and there was nothing about it that screamed "must be seen in a theater!" I can understand why a mass audience has decided that this title isn't worth $16.50 per ticket, but I think it'll pick up...

I'd imagine that some of these titles aren't making it to wide release - before the Regal program started this year, I had seen three or four of the nine titles. Last year, I had only seen one of the nine nominees before the marathons began. I think that happens more than you might expect...

Because of public transportation issues in NYC (our governor declared the system as being in a "state of emergency" last summer), short distances now take incredible lengths of time to traverse. My wife and I picked out our apartment because it was a 15-20 minute commute to work - it's now a...

Jake - I haven't done the AMC marathon. I like the idea of having a chance to see all the nominated films, but seeing four, five or nine movies in a row doesn't sound great to me, particularly if they're not part of a series where there's a built in urgency to move on to the next title. I like...

I loved Blade Runner 2049 and thought it looked gorgeous. But to play devil's advocate. Deakins shot the movie digitally, and immediately knew on set whether or not they got the shot or needed another take. He then used a digital intermediate, which allows for heavy tweaking of the imagery...

Not because it's different - but because he's asking so much more of his crew than anyone else is, so when they succeed, they achieve more than anyone else.

In Dunkirk's favor, they used a large format camera system that everyone else in Hollywood is afraid to even go near. Nolan and his cinematographers continue to innovate on what a film can look like and what the IMAX format can be. It should be an automatic win for that. As it should have been...

The thing I liked about Regal's over AMC's, to my knowledge at least, is that AMC runs them in a large all-in-a-row, one-ticket-only marathon. Which is great if you're interested in that, but not so great if you're not available that day or don't wish to view all of those films. With the Regal...

A missed opportunity - if only they knew how much you went to the movies! :D

Do you have a Regal near you? They're doing their Amazon-sponsored Best Picture marathon as they did last year. In the ten days before the ceremony, they'll alternate playing four different BP nominees per day. There's a $35 pass to see as many of them as many times as you want, but you can...

Keep in mind that Academy membership has changed significantly in very recent years. They updated the rules to take away voting privileges from people who haven't been active in a significant time, while extending membership offers to a diverse younger generation. It may not be an intentional...

Exactly. Extremely unlikely. ROTK behaved liked a BP winner in other regards - based on an acclaimed book and over two hours. If "The Post" were 2 1/2 hours instead of 1 3/4 hours, I'd say that would be a lock. But the Academy tends to prefer longer films.

The Shape Of Water is fantasy/horror which also makes it extremely unlikely to win.

And that's why I said "essentially ineligible" as opposed to "completely impossible". But historically, the lack of a Best Director nomination is the kiss of death for a movie's BP chances.

The exception that proves the rule.

I think Three Billboards is essentially ineligible for BP due to its lack of a Best Director nomination.

As a counterarguement to BATB, maybe the voters simply didn't care for any of the new songs. I have to confess that I don't hold the original animated version in the same esteem as most and I'm not as familiar with it as other animated Disney titles from that period, and yet, when I watched it...

Pleased to meet you - hope you guessed my name. :D

The thing that La La Land had going for it, in my opinion, is that Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone have great screen chemistry, as we've seen before in other films. But that's the only positive thing I can say about it. Meanwhile, here I am sick at home and running a fever with no energy or...

I think that Greatest Showman is an improvement on La La Land by every conceivable metric. From the songwriting to the choreography to the performances and everything in between, Showman wins hands down for me.

I'd give an Oscar to that song yesterday. The one they picked, not so much.

That's the one. Stunning.

My wife just played me a clip of "From Now On" that was recorded at one of the sessions where they first played the music to the studio in the hopes of getting the film greenlit. Jackman had just had nasal surgery to remove a cancerous growth and his doctors told him he should not sing while he...