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Here's an article from Emanuel Levy that I pretty much agree with: http://www.emanuellevy.com/article.php?articleID=1856

Now I feel better about being scared that LOTR:ROTK wouldn't win BP in 2004, even after it was winning award after award. As tonight shows, nothing is ever written in stone. (FWIW, I would have picked Munich to win BP)

Biggest Oscar upset of all time.

If Brokeback doesn't win Best Picture, it will be one of the biggest upsets ever.