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I agree. Although I didn't really think Samuel Jackson would get nominated, I thought for sure that Bigelow, Hawkes and Affleck would.

So is Lincoln considered the front-runner for BP? I'd love to see it go to Silver Linings Playbook.

I think you're mostly right except there was some serious critical buzz. It got more #1 spots on critics Top 10 lists than any other film and was the second-best reviewed film overall. http://www.metacritic.com/feature/top-ten-lists-best-movies-of-2012