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Ernest, I agree completely, especially on Sideways. Major surprise with Giamatti not getting nominated--in many ways, he makes the whole movie work! Though, unfortunately, I don't think M$B has any chance now for Best Picture.

I've seen the movie, that's definitely not a spoiler for anything in it. Ray H is probably right, he was most likely referring to Leno = do more publicity. Silly, given how amazing the movie is, but that's the Oscars for you.

Seth, I think this might have come up briefly in the Neverland discussion thread: it appears that the publicity for this movie was bungled. Most critics praised it, and audiences really like it, so why should we be surprised by that? I guess there were some lower expectations because the ads...

Ouch. Have we just gotten this year's verson of urine drinking? :D

New Roger Ebert article on the Oscar prospects for Million Dollar Baby (I've seen the movie, and this article is spoiler-free, so don't worry about that). Interesting comparison to a past Best Picture winner: And the picture at the top of this article, it's...well, interesting. :D

Ooooh, mod fight! Mod fight! I have nothing to add to the discussion, aside from that immature comment. :D Yeah, same here in the DC area, it opened today in one theater (two screens, I think). I'm totally there Sat. afternoon, though I imagine I might have to fight people off to get in.

Seth, any pointers/links to where your formula is explained, if it isn't a state secret? :D

Weird. Its rating on Rotten Tomatoes is 185 fresh to only 15 rotten, while Sideways ranks 148-5. Not that Rotten Tomatoes is precisely representative of the NYFCC, but I wasn't aware of any significant blocs of passionate critical hatred about Eternal Sunshine.

Sideways is adapted, from Rex Pickett's novel of the same name. Closer will presumably be strong in that category as well, but my guess is that adapted screenplay is the most likely Oscar win for Sideways. It might win more than that, but I'll be very surprised if it doesn't win in that category.

Looking at the various awards lists so far, I have to think that the early favorites for the screenplay Oscars are Sideways for adapted and Eternal Sunshine for original. Both are obvious locks for noms in those categories.

Yeah, Incredibles seems likely for screenplay. Maybe Tarantino as well? I'd be happy about that, let's see if they liked both volumes of Kill Bill enough to nominate him for screenplay on Vol. 2.

I sure hope Kaufman wins in Original Screenplay for Eternal Sunshine. He got noms for Malkovich and Adaptation (the latter in Adapted Screenplay), so it's gotta be all but guaranteed that he'll get nominated this time as well, and I hope they'll give it to him. What's his likely competition in...