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Xbox 720! (1 Viewer)

Bryan^H

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dmiller68

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Will I think the "New" xbox will have many new features. It will be the center of a entertainment living room. I believe it could if done right fix the gaps the PS3 had which was a good try at it.
 

Morgan Jolley

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After seeing how developers have utilized Kinect, why would anyone get really excited about Kinect V2? Additionally, since Kinect was sold for $100-150 (if you got a bundle or by itself), this suggests that the next console will pull a Wii U: the price will reflect that there is an expensive device in the package with the console, so the actual console is not the leap from this generation to the next that people might want.
Also, I'd like to see this actually work before I get excited over it. Do we even know this document is real?
 

Lord Dalek

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Can't they call it something else? 720 sounds like a step back in resolution quality.
 

Greg_S_H

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Is there really a significant leap to be had in terms of "next generation" at the moment? It seems like you could have better filtering, less compression on the textures, better draw distance, which seems to be the basic difference between a current console and a high-end PC. But, is it likely there is enough on the table in the immediate future to allow the next gen Microsoft and Sony machines to really blow people away? Genuinely curious, as I haven't followed too closely.
 

Derrik Draven

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Read that the baseline for graphics will be DirectX 11. Nice bump up certainly. Personally, they can dump Kinect right into the ocean. Other than for kiddie games, I think it's worthless, and gimmicky.
 

Edwin-S

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That paper sounds like it was some MS design committee's wet dream. No wonder they want it taken down. They know that they aren't going to come anywhere close to that level of integration for 300 bucks and they want to nip expectations in the bud. They don't want XBOX fanboys creaming themselves, expecting a 300 dollar Lexus, and then being pissed off when their XBOX720 turns out to be a 300 dollar Hyundai.
 

Morgan Jolley

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I think graphics won't be the driving force in games for the next generation in the same way that Sony and MS thought they were in the current one. If this really is the last cycle with physical consoles, then they'd be better off trying to define their first-party lineups or control schemes. That's why this doc seems to focus on everything besides power.
 

Edwin-S

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Where are you getting the idea that this iteration of consoles could be the last one? I haven't heard or read anything that would suggest that consoles are going the way of the dodo. I also think you keep underestimating the importance of graphics as part of the game play. You might not think they are important but there are a lot of other people who wouldn't necessarily agree. The demo of "Watch Dogs" proves the point that the graphics do add a lot to the ambience of the game. The graphics in that game look amazing. It' s the look of the game that piques my interest in it. I probably wouldn't look twice at the thing if it had Nintendo Wii level finishes, no matter how good it might be.
 

Morgan Jolley

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I've read a LOT about how the next generation of consoles will be based around disc games as well as downloadable games and could include some degree of streaming content in the vein of On Live. I'm surprised you haven't seen anything like that.
In terms of graphics, yes they absolutely do matter and there will always be a market for big budget games that look great. That said, I see two issues with that. The first is cost, in terms of hardware that can run those games as well as the cost of the games themselves. Frankly, very few games from this generation are actually worth $60 to me in their value, and I'm a HUGE gamer and a big fan of the medium. I'd rather pay $30 for a 10 hour single-player game than $60 for a 100 hour epic with crappy multiplayer thrown in for good measure. The success of the Wii proved that you don't need the most powerful console or most expensive hardware/software to be popular, sell well, and be on top. Sony and MS are riding high for now because Nintendo screwed a few things up, but having less-than-stellar hardware wasn't the problem. I can guarantee that the next gen of consoles will follow in the Wii's footsteps by being moderately priced, a good but not huge improvement over this generation, but focusing on what they do that is special in terms of control methods, services, etc.
As for Watch Dogs, the game looked gorgeous graphically (if it's even real-time...which, lets face it, do we know for sure that it is?) but it's not really a novel concept. Is there any reason a game like that can't exist right now, even if it doesn't look quite as good? And would you rather pay $40 right now for that game on a console you already own and have it look good for today's standards rather than buy a brand new console and pay $60+ for that game in a year and a half? Personally, I think going to a new generation is pointless because we'll end up with the exact same games that we have right now except they'll be prettier. It's one thing to go from 2D to 3D to incorporating motion control and so on, but the PS3 is powerful enough to do whatever most game developers want to do right now. All they need to do is come up with some good ideas. Combing GTA and Deus Ex (read: Watch Dogs) is not a novel idea. I actually thought it was pretty disappointing as a standout game from the show.
 

Ryan-G

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Edwin-S said:
Where are you getting the idea that this iteration of consoles could be the last one? I haven't heard or read anything that would suggest that consoles are going the way of the dodo. I also think you keep underestimating the importance of graphics as part of the game play. You might not think they are important but there are a lot of other people who wouldn't necessarily agree. The demo of "Watch Dogs" proves the point that the graphics do add a lot to the ambience of the game. The graphics in that game look amazing. It' s the look of the game that piques my interest in it. I probably wouldn't look twice at the thing if it had Nintendo Wii level finishes, no matter how good it might be.
There's a couple of issues that are making it likely this will be the final iteration of a console generation...
-Consoles have a fundamental design problem. They are severely limited in their ability to dissipate heat, and have a secondary issue with power. The small form factor, combined with the small fans that goes with it, cripples their ability to dissipate significant heat. Pointing one or two 90mm fans at a CPU/GPU isn't hugely effective, especially with small heat sinks. My Sandy Bridge, with a 120mm heatsink tower, and 6 120mm fans can easily hit 45 degree celcius, and my graphics card can crack 60 with ease. Cut that down to one or two 90mm fans with a tiny heat sink, you'll get a meltdown. Console-consumers also have a very low tolerance for fan noise, as we saw with complaints about the 360, so cooling becomes a massive problem. Additionally, modern hardware requires significantly more power than traditional power supplies deliver, I wouldn't try to run a modern system without at least 400w.
-Consoles no longer perform their design intent. The original reason why Consoles were created was to have a specialized computing platform at a much lower price point than traditional computing. Consoles were meant to perform specialized computing tasks necessary to gaming as well as, if not better than, a PC. Everything prior to the Psx generation met this criteria, and the Psx and Ps2 had pricing on their side. Today, the hardware design no longer yields better performance than a PC solution, often much worse performance. Worse, the price point for a new console is on par with a PC or Laptop, so they're losing the pricing edge. The final issue is, Consoles are now just repackaged PC's for all intents and purposes. The same CPU/GPU's you could technically buy for a PC, the rumored hardware for the PS4 is literally an AMD CPU/GPU with a specialized chipset. Consoles are now just rebadged PC's.
-Consoles are drowning in their own market strategy. The modern market strategy for a Console is the platform owner tightly controls what games are made for it, and by whom. Only big names are permitted to release games on their platforms, it's a closed box to indie/startups. Without going into detail, the Publishers being incredibly risk-adverse have been releasing primarily shooters, and the lion's share of those are sequels. The lack of diversity is dragging heavily on the market, with many months in the last 3 years resulting in negative growth. There's a very real chance of the PS4/720 outright failing because the Console market strategy combined with risk-adverse publishers ends up presenting to consumers "Pay $500+ to play the same games you've been playing for the last 7 years!", IMO it'll cause a full-out market crash*.
There's a few different directions this could go. Ouya's open platform and Free-to-try strategy could take the market by storm, though I think it'll just be a catalyst. The rumored Steambox would unite Console/PC gaming, with the steambox being an LCD of PC's. A shift in how we get our media could push the market to Home Servers wirelessly pushing screens throughout the house, catering to both PC and Console type games. There's alot of ways this can go, but honestly, I really don't think another true Console generation is likely.
*Games aren't selling right now. Endless sequels seem to be taking a toll on Gamers. If the next generation of consoles release, and the launch titles consist of Call of Duty something-teen, Halo 7, Gears of War 5, Resident Evil 7, etc, there's a very real chance Gamers will pass or be very slow to adopt waiting for that killer-title. If that happens, the market will crash in months. Most of the publishers are barely surviving, and can't survive one bad year. EA's a great example, the first report in 2012 was a 277 million dollar loss, with ~1 billion cash on hand, they could only survive a year of that. If Publishers invest a huge amount into PS4/720, and it doesn't sell, they'll collapse. A development cycle is 2-3 years, they can't make it a year, so a slow or no-sell next gen will tip most of them over because it'll take way too long to adapt and switch to a new plan. Without the big names (EA, Bethesda, THQ, Take 2), the platforms won't have games, which will ultimately kill the platforms. We're really primed for a disaster scenario here.
 

Sam Posten

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I think you are both very wrong. =)
I expect a significant performance bump in the next console generation. At least at the Nvidia 670 performance level or better. Just looking at the Samaritan demo and other UE4 videos bear that out. Ryan worries about the heat and cost but I think that the preponderance of advances in the mobile age towards these same goals will be very helpful here.
I believe that both Sony and MS will support day and date downloadable releases along with the disks (ala Vita) but disks will continue to be less important over time. Yes we all know that the heartland sucks for high speed internet and disks will have to fill that gap. But the future is in downloads.
I believe that gimmicks like motion input will continue to be visible but not drivers of sales. I'd not be surprised if one or both ship with a video camera standard tho. Microsoft with Skype over Kinect2 could be huge. Could Kinect be bundled in? Wouldnt surprise me. Sony has strengths here too.
I believe this will be the first generation to have an App Store for independent developers that is MUCH more like the Apple Model than it is the Android (truly open) or Current Gen Console (truly locked down). IE curated to keep the sexually explicit content out and free of hacks and trojans. And developers can price their games any way they want. As big as they want. With as much DLC as they want. Advertising supported if they want. Or not. Only those developers who care to release on disk will be required to have extensive custom hardware, everyone will be able to code on a PC and test on a consumer grade console. Just like on Mobile.
I do not believe either console will give much credence to OnLive or similar schemes. This is a red herring. They are hardware manufacturers with a side business in Software. There is no compelling reason to cut out the most important part of making sure that a user gets a quality experience, ie live hardware in their own houses that does not rely on constant network bandwidth.
Just my opinion, we all have very different expectations. Will be interesting to see who is closest over time.
Also, if any of you thought that the draw for Watch Dogs was the graphics you weren't paying attention. Hint: Look at the UI. Not the one that pops up from the Watch itself, the UI when no watch is in use.
 

Russell G

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My choice on the future console is largely dependent on if all my PSN downloads will transfer over. :S
 

Morgan Jolley

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Russell - Nintendo said that all Wii games will run on the Wii U and that all data on your Wii console (save data, DLC, games, Virtual Console, etc.) will transfer to the Wii U. MS and Sony haven't announced anything for their next systems.
Ryan - I think you've missed the mark on a lot of the stuff you mentioned. First off, your average consume isn't really all that tech savvy. Sure, a computer can be built to be great and last a long time (longer than a typical console generation) for a decent price and will have more than just gaming functions, but I'd say that an overwhelming majority of consumers who currently buy consoles and don't already make their own PCs will be unwilling to start doing so. The PC platform also kind of just rotted away for a while, with some really huge games coming out and not much that wasn't also on consoles, if not better on consoles. It has been brought back to life by Steam, but it won't replace the console experience. Which kinds of goings into another point. Second, you don't get the same experience on a PC. Yeah, you can connect it to your TV, but there's a HUGE difference between using an HTPC and using a PS3/360. The experience of a console is tailored for sitting on your couch. The experience of using a PC is built around the idea that you've got a keyboard and mouse and the screen isn't more than 2 feet away from your face.
Sure, these points can be overcome with a few years time and the right people getting involved in the scene. Or the Ouya/Steambox/etc. could come in and change things for us. But there's an even bigger problem: quality and diversity of content. Personally, I think apps and the $1 game are ruining gaming but I blame the people who buy them, not the people who make them. You will never see the games that sell Nintendo consoles on anything but Nintendo hardware. Same kind of goes for the MS/Sony stuff but they seem more willing to port to PC or expand to other platforms. If I have the option of buying a Wii U and playing Mario (which I'll assume is great because I'm very familiar with the brand) or buying an Ouya and hoping something good comes along (that isn't a port of an Android game from 2 years ago), which do you think I'll choose?
(Sidenote: you do realize that all 3 consoles have a variety of miniature, app-style games to download, right? Sony does a WAY better job of promoting their quality indie games, but MS has left the Indie channel on the 360 extremely open to content.)
I think that consoles will eventually die out because people won't like having to, essentially, pick a format. The strength of each console is based on the exclusive games. Sometimes, those games are based on what that console can uniquely do; sometimes its based on who made the console and what games they make. The PS4 and Xbox 720 (I kind of hate that name, but whatever) will most likely both include a Kinect-style camera/voice system, have a controller similar to what we're used to, and possibly something like the PS Move. Essentially, they'll probably be about the same except on will carry over your GamerTag and the other will carry over your PSN ID. The Wii U is the one that is most unique, but I think Nintendo tends to do their own thing and not come into play, anyway.
 

Ryan-G

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Sam Posten said:
I think you are both very wrong. =)
I expect a significant performance bump in the next console generation. At least at the Nvidia 670 performance level or better. Just looking at the Samaritan demo and other UE4 videos bear that out. Ryan worries about the heat and cost but I think that the preponderance of advances in the mobile age towards these same goals will be very helpful here.
I believe that both Sony and MS will support day and date downloadable releases along with the disks (ala Vita) but disks will continue to be less important over time. Yes we all know that the heartland sucks for high speed internet and disks will have to fill that gap. But the future is in downloads.
I believe that gimmicks like motion input will continue to be visible but not drivers of sales. I'd not be surprised if one or both ship with a video camera standard tho. Microsoft with Skype over Kinect2 could be huge. Could Kinect be bundled in? Wouldnt surprise me. Sony has strengths here too.
I believe this will be the first generation to have an App Store for independent developers that is MUCH more like the Apple Model than it is the Android (truly open) or Current Gen Console (truly locked down). IE curated to keep the sexually explicit content out and free of hacks and trojans. And developers can price their games any way they want. As big as they want. With as much DLC as they want. Advertising supported if they want. Or not. Only those developers who care to release on disk will be required to have extensive custom hardware, everyone will be able to code on a PC and test on a consumer grade console. Just like on Mobile.
I do not believe either console will give much credence to OnLive or similar schemes. This is a red herring. They are hardware manufacturers with a side business in Software. There is no compelling reason to cut out the most important part of making sure that a user gets a quality experience, ie live hardware in their own houses that does not rely on constant network bandwidth.
Just my opinion, we all have very different expectations. Will be interesting to see who is closest over time.
Also, if any of you thought that the draw for Watch Dogs was the graphics you weren't paying attention. Hint: Look at the UI. Not the one that pops up from the Watch itself, the UI when no watch is in use.
I'm not sure I'd use any of the demo's as a point of reference though, RockPaperShotgun ran a piece after E3 discussing how the majority of demos were shown using PC versions, not actually running on console hardware.
Advances in mobile aren't going to help. Mobile isn't able to do much about heat, they start getting hot trying to handle something like Angry Birds, If something as simple as Angry Birds causes them to generate significant heat, Mobile really cannot contribute anything to larger platforms.
If there were any meaningful advances Mobile devices had come up with, Intel and AMD absolutely would've incorporated them into their designs in order to boost performance.
I agree on your assessment of downloads. But I disagree on your assessment of motion input, for a core gamer involved in core games, the motion control is extremely limiting. You can't do a shooter with one, how would you strafe? How would you move or turn? Motion is largely a gimmick for non-core gamers, who generally buy few games, which is the problem the Wii had.
I agree on app stores.
Ryan - I think you've missed the mark on a lot of the stuff you mentioned. First off, your average consume isn't really all that tech savvy. Sure, a computer can be built to be great and last a long time (longer than a typical console generation) for a decent price and will have more than just gaming functions, but I'd say that an overwhelming majority of consumers who currently buy consoles and don't already make their own PCs will be unwilling to start doing so. The PC platform also kind of just rotted away for a while, with some really huge games coming out and not much that wasn't also on consoles, if not better on consoles. It has been brought back to life by Steam, but it won't replace the console experience. Which kinds of goings into another point. Second, you don't get the same experience on a PC. Yeah, you can connect it to your TV, but there's a HUGE difference between using an HTPC and using a PS3/360. The experience of a console is tailored for sitting on your couch. The experience of using a PC is built around the idea that you've got a keyboard and mouse and the screen isn't more than 2 feet away from your face.
You don't have to build a PC to have it last a long time anymore, you can buy one. Especially as Intel/AMD refine the on-die GPU over the next year or two.
The PC platform "Rotted away" because of the advent of 3D gaming. In the early 00's, developing on the PC meant you needed at least 1280x1024 resolution, with highly detailed models and environments requiring very large teams. The PS2 OTOH, still was on SDTV resolutions, with very little in the way of 3D effects, allowing for much smaller teams. So the profit margin was potentially larger on the Consoles due to technological constraints, and the Publishers switched to Consoles claiming "PC gaming is dead!" instead of admitting it was the profit margin that drove them. Today, it's fear of the Pirates that has kept them there. It's always been Publishers dictating the market, not the market dictating the platforms.
As far as the experience goes, what you're talking about is a UI, which is a very surmountable issue. The reason you haven't seen it attacked is because: if Microsoft makes a OS that can have a TV friendly UI, they cannibalize their X-box platform. It hasn't been in their best interests to do it. A PC is quite capable of doing the UI of either the PS3 or the 360, and even capable of recongizing which display it's outputing to and putting the best UI on that screen.
The PS4 is quite literally a PC. It's an AMD processor with a AMD GPU, same thing you'll be able to buy in a PC, which illustrates how easily the PC can be adapted to the TV. The Console Experience is extremely possible from a PC, at this stage, the differentiation between the two is largely a marketing falsehood used to prevent the PC from gaining traction, because the Platform owners would lose massive amounts of revenue with an open platform like the PC. Their revenue is generated by charging Publishers and Developers to sell games for their platforms. As Microsoft is a defining member of the PC Platform, it's easy to see how they intentionally prevented the PC from interfering with Console sales. All they have to do is not include Living Room friendly advances in the OS.
Edit:
You can see the same behavior we had in the 00's today. Since Consoles now have all of the development cost problems the PC had/has, Publishers are now chanting "Mobile! Tablets! Console and PC gaming is dead!", for the same reason they chanted "PC Gaming is dead!" in the 00's, they can lose a massive percentage of their staff since they can hide behind low-detail displays and increase profit margins. 5" phone screens or 10" tablet screens don't need anywhere near the detail a TV or Monitor requires. We're at the same point we were 10 years ago.
 

Sam Posten

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My 405 game collection on Steam (not counting the few I have on GOG and Origin) has me wondering what the heck you are talking about as far as PC gaming rotting away. The millions of MMORPG players are wondering the same. Are there big markets for Xbox, PS3 and Wii? Sure. But there is just as strong a PC market as ever. And there continue to be tons of things you can easily do on PC that Consoles stuggle with.
 

Sam Posten

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It's all about lowering the barrier to entry while increasing fidelity...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidthier/2012/06/29/epics-tim-sweeney-on-how-unreal-engine-4-will-change-the-way-games-are-made-and-why-you-care/
 

Morgan Jolley

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Ryan - Yes, you can buy a PC now that will do gaming well and possibly at the same capability as the next gen of consoles, but there are multiple issues to sort out. Exclusive content (games or otherwise), control UI (whether you or I like the Wii/Move/Kinect has nothing to do with what someone else might like; conversely, some people swear by a mouse and keyboard), price (biggest issue for PCs right now), and ease of use will be the biggest factors in whether someone gets into one style of gaming or another. I actually see something like OnLive or Gaikai as avoiding these issues altogether and making one seem like the other and vice versa, but that's a different thread.
Personally, I'm very willing to spend $300 on a new console but not $600 on a new PC. I actually have games on my computer that I'd love to be able to play on a better setup. It's just not something I care enough about, especially when I'm getting enough fun and value out of my consoles.
The issue about the UI of a console vs. a HTPC is a great point. Microsoft just bought some domains that suggest the name "Xbox 8" is going to be used for something. My guess is that they will try to integrate their Games for Windows stuff and their newest Xbox 360 UI with Windows 8 and make a cohesive gaming service out of it. This would probably mean PCs and laptops that are more ready to be used in a home theater setup as gaming or media devices, which is great and would solve the UI issue. All of that said...what about someone who likes non-Windows computers? (Not me, mind you, just throwing this out as an idea.)
I don't think we should talk about the specs of the PS4 or next Xbox until we know for certain what is inside. The rumors are probably mostly true or are hinting at what will actually be in them, but it's not really fair to make a case for something now based on rumors and speculation that won't be confirmed for nearly another year. I totally agree with you about how developers jump to whatever platform provides the best profit margin, but they also jump to the genres that provide the best sales, too. There are tons of war-themed FPS games on consoles and cutesy -Ville style games on mobiles for this reason.
Sam - You, Ryan, and myself are probably special cases when it comes to our game collections. I have all of my old consoles set up and ready to go at a moment's notice (literally; they're hooked into a switchbox plugged into my TV) and around 375 games between all of my consoles. (I should note that my brother has the NES, Genesis, and Turbo-Grafx 16; I have the SNES, N64, GC, Xbox, Dreamcast, PS1, PS2, and the current 3 consoles, plus a GameBoy, GBC, GBA, DS, 3DS, and Vita.) How you or I personally feel about our favorite systems or games or genres doesn't reflect the rest of the world. I have several games on Steam and I have a friend who has something like a hundred, but almost all of my other friends own consoles and maybe dabble in PC gaming every once in a while when there is a game that they can't get on a console. MMOs are huge....on PCs. They're also an easier model to run on PCs. Downloadable expansions, lower-than-average system requirements, 10+ year lifespans, etc. are easier to get a PC gamer (or even a casual gamer who owns a PC) to commit to than a console gamer. How many people still play FFXI? How many of those are on PS2?
Another point that we've avoided is multiplayer, and I'm not talking about Call of Duty or Battlefield. I mean Halo, Mortal Kombat, Portal, Rock Band, etc. in your living room. I cannot imagine buying a bunch of instruments for Rock Band, plugging them into my PC, and playing that with a bunch of friends. Is it impossible? Absolutely not. Impractical? Maybe, but only because of how the market is right now. Could this change in the future? Easily, but it isn't the case right now. Yeah, LAN parties are fun, but I'd rather share a screen with a friend. Are there even many PC games that do that?
 

DaveF

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I'm casually interested in the next gen of consoles. My guess of the video game market is the GenX market who likes PC and consoles doesn't have time and money for games (mid career, kids, mortgages, etc); and the new generation is gaming on iPhones and iPads. Gaming isn't dead, but it's currently shifting to Apple.
As for the value of consoles:. How else can I get an couch-centric gaming box with controller that plugs into my TV for $300? PC gaming is also great, but the appliance aspect of consoles is key to me. Except what money I spend on games right now goes to the AppStore.
 

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