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Will missed target numbers shift any format suppoft from the studios?

Discussion in 'Blu-ray and UHD' started by ppltd, Nov 25, 2006.

  1. Trevor Harveaux

    Trevor Harveaux Stunt Coordinator

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    I saw two on the shelves one day while shopping during lunch and decided to wait till after work to pick it up. Big mistake, that was the last time I've seen one here on the shelves. They were all gone by the time I got back. I stopped at 6 stores one night trying to buy one, and every place I went was sold out. So I ended up ordering mine on Amazon. Love it.
     
  2. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    But the window for getting the units out of production and into shipment to arrive before Christmas is nearly over. They have about another 10 days of production to leave enough time to deliver the units for the Christmas Season.
     
  3. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    Used exclusively for watching HD movies. Not the same for the PS3. People that invest in the add-on have only one purpose for buying it, and it has nothing to do with gamming.
     
  4. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    I agree totally.
     
  5. MarekM

    MarekM Supporting Actor

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    Thomas I mentioned those words just because few post earlier you mentioned that you do not see problem on manufaturers side of Toshiba, and that's why I think Toshiba can't win ALONE.

    Marek

    my original post
    "Originally Posted by MarekM
    so you think if BD camp will be putting on market many more player, and possible they will reduce prices, that TOSHIBA will have enough power to support HD DVD with players ALONE ?"
     
  6. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    Marek,

    I agree with you that Toshiba will certainly be at a disadvantage if they have to go it alone, but I don't see it as critical at this junctier. In fact it may be an advantage. As there are so few HD or BD buyers around, having multiple hardware vendors in the market will lessen the ability of each of these vendors to break even on their research and development costs. When the HD formats begin selling to the mainstream buyers in quantity, then having multiple vendors in the market is important. But I see that as at least a year away.
     
  7. Shane Martin

    Shane Martin Producer

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    It's a bigger advantage because if I don't want to watch HD movies then I'm not penalized by paying $200+ dollars extra. The extra space on the BR side of the gaming aspects has not shown it's that big of a deal yet. Graphically the 360 holds its own vs the PS3.

    Given a few months time(let's say 4-6) then we'll know I think if the PS3 helped BR or not. If it didn't then I think the missed target #'s and the lack of BR buyers will swing a few studios the other way. They go where the money is. Right now they can't ignore the sales advantage that the HD DVD titles are experiencing over their rival format.
     
  8. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    I am in the same position as you. I am looking at the PS3 as a BD player only (My 360 does just fine as my primary game machine) to replace my Samsung. Surpisingly, my HD-Add-On has taken over the prime position for HD-DVD playback over my Toshiba XA1, and my XA1 is now used as a SD upconverting player.

    If too many PS3's are purchased as BD players only, I wonder how Sony will ever recoup their initial investments, as they were banking on the game royalties to cover their hardware losses. I am curious if the BD royalties they recieve will cover the costs.
     
  9. AaronSCH

    AaronSCH Second Unit

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    There are exceptions to every rule and then there is a history or track record of consumer behavior. You can all hypothesize till you are Blu in the face. But that doesn't change the fact that past behavior is the best indication of future behavior. I think Joshua Zyber over at DVD Talk summed things up pretty well in this nice little editorial: High-Def Revolution
     
  10. Jean-Michel

    Jean-Michel Supporting Actor

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    Take it as you will, but I've heard from a couple of industry sources (neither of whom are remotely Sony-friendly) that the actual figure for shipped PS3s in North America is closer to 300,000 (which is still a missed target, since the original goal was 400,000). It's not gospel but then neither is the estimate of some third-party analyst.
     
  11. Peter Overduin

    Peter Overduin Supporting Actor

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    No, but I live in what is acknowledged to be the most competitve home electronics market in America; the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. Those serioulsy in the know in this industry can confirm. I did make a point of talking to a few in the larger centers of Burnaby, Coquitlam and Vancouver (I spend a lot of time in these areas on business anyway) and they were unanimous that a) BD disks did not go out the door with PS3s; and b) the vast majority of those who stood in line intended to resell their playes on ebay or wherever to make a profit. To suggest that someone would pay 2K for a PS3 to primarily play BD, well; that's silly of course.

    As well, history demonstrated that PS2 buyers did not buy the PS2 to primarily play DVD, they bought it for gaming. PS3 buyers, a large minority, or possibly a small majority, did not stand in line to buy a DVD player; they bought it to resell on ebay or for gaming...not an opinion, just a premature statement of fact based on history and which will be shown to be factual when software numbers are released for this time period.

    I don't really care in the end as I plan to buy a BD player when the prices fall or the first combo players - which I think more likely as all studios begin to release in both formats as they percieve exclusivity will backfire, as I think it must be doing on Fox and Disney with their policy.

    This nonsense hurts all of us. In my opinion, if there had been one HD format, aggressively marketed by ALL the OEM's and studios, we WOULD be seeing a heck of a lot more day and date releases and more big title catalogue releases.

    Studios WON'T get their shit together and OEM's CAN'T get theirs together...what a frackin mess.
     
  12. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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    Aaron,
    Make your point without having to resort to your "Blu" in the face comment. I'm sick of individuals on both sides of this format war trying to complicate this discussion more by being antagnostic with some of their comments such as "fanboys" or "Blu in the face" in order to tweak those that have a contrary view from theirs.




    Crawdaddy
     
  13. Mark Butler

    Mark Butler Stunt Coordinator

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    I find it very interesting that people who say that PS3 owners are gamers and bought the machine just to play games and not watch movies are the same people who say that XBox 360 HD-DVD add-on drive sold a huge amount of units. So why do people who are just gamers buy the add-on drive? I guess the conclusion we can draw is that gamers like to watch movies but only HD-DVD and not Blu-ray. [​IMG]
     
  14. PeterTHX

    PeterTHX Cinematographer

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    Apples and oranges. PS2 launched 3 years after the debut of DVD.
    Nor was it the cheapest DVD player at the time.
    Nor was it positioned as a fully featured DVD player.

    Still, I know PLENTY of people who use it as their sole DVD player. More yet who use it as a DVD player in another room.
     
  15. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    I think you missed the point. The initial PS3 buyers were the diehard gammers, who were willing to camp out at stores for days for a chance to get one to play or to a less extent, sell.

    As far as the add-on, the point is that the only people that will buy it are people that want to watch movies. With the expected install base of the XBox approaching 8 to 9 million, and 10 million expected by years end, if MS sells 1,000,000 over the long run, it means that only 10% of the xbox owners are interested in watching HD movies on the box. I believe that MS is banking on a lot lower percentage, as it seems that the they underestimated demand.

    If you take the high point of 10%, then the PS3 must sell millions of boxes before there will be an impact on the BD marketplace. Simple mathmatics. MS's only saving grace in the HD area is that it has a hugh lead in installed product.

    11 days ito the release of the PS3, and other than a spike in BD disk sales on the day of it's releases, the percentage difference between HD and BD at Amazon have stayed pretty much the same as they were prior to the PS3 and XBox add-on releases. How that relates to total sales of content I am not sure.
     
  16. Mark Butler

    Mark Butler Stunt Coordinator

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    I was actually comparing the Add-on Drive to the PS3. As you said the install base of 360s is around 8 million units there were, however, not 8 million add-on drives available to buy upon release. To draw a comparison that a small percentage of gamers bought the drive ignores the fact that there were only a small percentage of add-on drives available. If there were the same proportionate amount of add-on drives available in relation to the install base of 8 million then speculation about whether or not Gamers are movie watchers as well could have more of a basis in actual fact. If there are 8 million 360's and 8 million add-on drives available and only a 100,000 sold, well then you could say that perhaps gamers are not interested in watching movies.Using the information and opinions stated here one could argue that MS did not have enough drives available to meet demand and that maybe gamers ARE interested in movies because the drives sold out in stores very quickly. If we are going to get into a sociological debate about the viewing habits of the Gamer species, I would hazard an opinion that Console Gamers (like the PS3 buyer and 360 buyer) are much more interested in movies than say a PC Gamer would be. If you read the message boards at IGN or Gamespot many people are talking about the HD content playback be it Blu-ray or HDDVD. A simple fact is that PS3 owners are now Blu-ray customers too and because of already owning the hardware they are going to be more inclined to buy what they can play on it rather than buying new hardware to play a different delivery device.
     
  17. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    Actually, it does not. What it shows is what MS believes the interest level will be for HD movie content playback through the through their game console. I tend to think that the research that they did prior to bringing the add-on to the market backs this up. To ignore the fact that gamers buy consoles primarily to play games, not watch movies, ignores history.
     
  18. Mark Butler

    Mark Butler Stunt Coordinator

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    However, we are entering uncharted territory with the convergence of the Console into a media center, not just for games. I certainly didn't purchase my NES to watch VHS tapes on my TV, or my SuperNES, Genesis, TurboGraphix, N64 or Dreamcast. It wasn't until the PS2 (when the gaming community actually campaigned for it to include DVD playback) that the integration of media centers began ( I am leaving out Phillips CDi). So you are correct that in the past Gamers bought consoles to play videogames because that's all the consoles could do (although my little brother tried to see if my NES could play a PB and J sandwich). The single-mindedness of games only/no movies you seem to equate to gamers as a whole is something that I don't believe is indicative of the persons who are buying these new consoles now or in the future.
     
  19. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    Huh?? More than New York, Los Angeles, Chicago etc..???

    Dunno bout that.[​IMG]
     
  20. Chris S

    Chris S Cinematographer

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    Bingo! We have a winner!
     

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