Where are the hurricanes?

Discussion in 'After Hours Lounge (Off Topic)' started by Brian Perry, Aug 20, 2006.

  1. Brian Perry

    Brian Perry Cinematographer

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    Don't get me wrong -- I'm not hoping for any. But it seemed many "experts" were predicting a record number of Atlantic hurricanes -- many of them Cat 4 and 5 -- for 2006. Yet here we are at the one-year anniversary of Katrina, and there has been virtually NO activity (and this despite record warmth).

    Let's keep our fingers crossed that this trend continues.
     
  2. Bryan X

    Bryan X Producer

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    So much for our ability to predict the weather anywhere past a few days, huh?
     
  3. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    No one was predicting a record year. They originally predicted an above average season, but nothing like last year.

    One major factor is that sea surface temps are a few degrees cooler than last year. Another is that she shearing winds in the tropics have been much stronger this summer than usual.

    But what it comes down to is what Bryan said, weather forecasters still basically know nothing about predicting weather.
     
  4. Greg*go

    Greg*go Supporting Actor

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    This USA Today article shows the predictions for '06 from the beginning of the season. It's funny how they predict the number of major storms, but not the locations. They might as well predict the locations, all their other predictions are just as useless. There's also a little sidebar on the left showing historical figures.

    Also, it hasn't been a year yet, Katrina formed on August 23 and hit the US as a category 5 on August 29. So we still have another week, but the view from my Desktop Earth shows the Atlantic relatively cloud free as of 10:30 a.m. EDT!

    My question is, where are the shark attacks in the gulf? I guess since there is other news going on right now, the sharks are being kind and not attacking anyone yet.
     
  5. JeremyErwin

    JeremyErwin Producer

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  6. DanielKellmii

    DanielKellmii Supporting Actor

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    "It's funny how they predict the number of major storms, but not the locations."
    The beginning of the year predictions never predict locations. The predict the number of storms and the percentage chance of having a landfalling hurricane in a season. Until there is a named storm, location predictions aren't released.

    FYI, as of today, this season is just a little below normal. Wilma hit at the end of October last year. I just made my final repair related to that storm today.
     
  7. MarkHastings

    MarkHastings Executive Producer

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    Meteorologist: Don't you wish you could be THAT wrong at your job and still HAVE a job? [​IMG]
     
  8. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    Definitely. And a good-paying job at that.

    You have as good a chance to get an accurate forecast by calling the Psychic Hotline and talking to Miss Cleo! [​IMG]
     
  9. Bryan X

    Bryan X Producer

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    Hey, don't be slammin' Miss Cleo! [​IMG]
     
  10. DaveF

    DaveF Moderator
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    You can thank me. I chose my honeymoon location from my preferred location to an area that is Hurricane free. Naturally, it was essentially a storm-free summer. [​IMG]
     
  11. Jeff Gatie

    Jeff Gatie Lead Actor

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    That's because all the really "accurate" computer models are being used to predict the weather 100 years from now. 6 month forecasts? Pffft! That's baby stuff. [​IMG]
     
  12. Holadem

    Holadem Lead Actor

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    Now Jeff however, is as predictable as ever [​IMG].

    --
    H
     
  13. MarkHastings

    MarkHastings Executive Producer

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    Here in CT, they don't even know what's going to happen in the next 6 hours, much less 6 months.

    EDIT: LOL - I just checked our local TV news stations web site...last night (around midnight) their 8 day forecast showed rain Tues. night....this morning, they no longer show rain. What's the point of 8 day forecasts when you're constantly updating (and changing) information every few hours?
     
  14. Chu Gai

    Chu Gai Lead Actor

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    To be fair, I'd suspect it's more difficult to predict short term perturbations than long term ones.
     
  15. David McGough

    David McGough Second Unit

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  16. JeremyErwin

    JeremyErwin Producer

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    Nope. No Atlantic hurricanes.
     
  17. Chu Gai

    Chu Gai Lead Actor

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    We renamed them and sent them to China as typhoons.
     
  18. Joseph DeMartino

    Joseph DeMartino Lead Actor

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    Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs until November, guys. There's plenty of time. At the moment Tropical Depression No. 4 is roiling off the coast of Africa and is likely to become Tropical Storm Debbie (already the 4th named storm of this young season) later today. I won't worry even if it becomes a hurricane, though. I live on the east coast of Florida, and everybody knows that Debbie does Dallas.

    [​IMG]

    [runs away]

    Joe
     
  19. Chu Gai

    Chu Gai Lead Actor

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    Why so she does!!

    [​IMG]
     
  20. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    It's about time we exported something to China. [​IMG]
     

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