When will HD players reach critical mass so big titles like LOTR/SW can be released?

Discussion in 'Playback Devices' started by JediFonger, Sep 12, 2006.

  1. JediFonger

    JediFonger Producer

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    http://www.hometheaterforum.com/htf/...76#post2964476
    ^as we discussed big title releases on HD, i think it is related to how many players there are on the market. the more players, the more likely big titles will be released.

    when do you think HD (either format or both) will reach enough consumers for studio to take the plunge on big titles being released?

    imho, i think it will be 2010 or 2011. DVD came out in '97/'98, correct? took about 3 years before mass adoption of the format around year 2000. HD will take much longer because of existing SD-DVD, which is competing against HD media.
     
  2. Garrett Lundy

    Garrett Lundy Producer

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    Christmas '08 earliest.

    Xmas 2006: Not enough HDMI 1.3 chips for PS3, let alone everyone else
    Xmas 2007: New HD decoding on flagship AVRS,HDMI 1.3 finally available to everyone
    Xmas 2008: HDMI 1.3 switching & HD decoding now available on less expensive AVRs. 1080p HDTVS now the norm in showrooms, "handshake" amongst components ironed-out (hopefully).
     
  3. TravisR

    TravisR Studio Mogul

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    Like Garrett, I'd say the very earliest is 2008 and probably more like 2010. I don't know if that will really effect most big titles from being released though.
     
  4. Austan

    Austan Second Unit

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    There's a difference between "Big Movie Titles", "Cult Classics", and "New Releases".

    "Big Movie Titles" are being released now and will continue to be released. These movies include The Last Samurai, Apollo 13, Bourne Supremacy, Terminator, UnderWorld, etc...

    "Cult Classics" are a unique class and are not subject to our demands but to how much money they can make. Star Wars has been released so many times in so many formats and they sell out every time. LOTR has the original, extended and now another box set. Disney is also a master of the cult classic animation movies. Once they run out of "versions" of these movies on SD DVD then they will make a standard HD Version, after that sells out comes the Extended or Enhanced Version.. then the signature Box Set.. you get the picture...

    "New Releases" wont happen for quite some time. New releases fill up all the shelf space in stores, go on sale for a week and they need to be cleared up before next Tuesdays new release. This wont happen until after 2010.
     
  5. MarekM

    MarekM Supporting Actor

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    Austan, maybe some studios will follow BVHE with their releases..

    http://video.movies.go.com/bluray/
    from faq on the page :
    question: When will BVHE start releasing Blue-ray titles the same day as regular DVDtitles

    answare: BVHE plans to have same-day releases od DVD and Blu-ray titles starting in December 2006

    Marek
     
  6. dkny75

    dkny75 Stunt Coordinator

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    Both formats are starting to announce day and dates with the regular dvd version.

    Mission Impossible III (HD DVD/Blu-ray)
    Monster House (Blu-ray)
    Lake House (HD DVD)
    Break Up (HD DVD)

    I know there are a lot more but that's what I remember of the top of my head.

    I think studios on both sides are waiting to see how the PS3 sales and availability go, especially on the Blu-ray side.
     
  7. JediFonger

    JediFonger Producer

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    austan, that's why i mentioned big title. cult classics and new releases alone will not get people to buy into the new format. big title releases will.

    now if they can achieve all that then it would rock. an example is the matrix, it was a cult hit, a new release (at that time) AND it was a big title.
     
  8. Austan

    Austan Second Unit

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    YiFeng, the example you used in the title (LOTR/SW) are 2 that I define as "Cult Classic". They can release multiple editions and we will buy them up like crazy even though we own the previous versions. SW was not released on DVD until 2004 even though DVD had taken the market by 2000. LOTR was made during the era of DVD so it was released then followed up by the Extended Edition and now I think there's another box set out too.

    Maybe I should add another category to my list.
    "Must Own Collection" are titles that Studios want to maximize the amount they can sell. Matrix, Spiderman, PotC, Harry Potter will be highly sought after titles. You want to produce those in the millions because you have spend million$ to re-market them. I dont see these being released until after 2010.

    I also need to revise my "New Release" prediction to be seen mid 2007. (These exclude the new release that are seen as "Must Own Collection")
     
  9. JediFonger

    JediFonger Producer

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    LOTR/SW are definitely not cult classics. they are big title movies that non-cult fans would know about... even the grandma/pa's of the world. heck, i bet even in the far reaches of 3rd world countries and middle eastern countries forbidden to watch Western media would know about these big title hits. they are anything but cult hit. now a film like... fight club for example is a still a cult hit, it remains under the radar for mainstream pop culture. when it is mentioned, it is always with a wink like the film itself "is this a test, mr. durden." style.

    LOTR/SW are bigger than Matrix, Spider, POTC.
     
  10. Tim Glover

    Tim Glover Lead Actor

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    This could easily get ugly....[​IMG] but yes, LOTR & SW are not cult classics. Cult from the perspective of their huge fan base but they are bigtime title movies for sure.

    When I think of cult classics, I always think of films like Rocky Horror stuff etc...
     
  11. JediFonger

    JediFonger Producer

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    cult classics are films that are below the radar of mainstream pop culture ages 9 to 99.

    it's hard to say that grandpa/ma's of the world know about rocky horror or will be willing to watch it... but LOTR/SW sure =).
     
  12. Austan

    Austan Second Unit

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    part of the definition of "cult" is: Obsessive, especially faddish, devotion to or veneration for a person, principle, or thing.

    My definition of "Cult Classic" has nothing to do with religion or size of fan base, its based on the the fact that these fans will buy copies of these favorite movies in every media they can. How many copies of LOTR and SW do you own? My definition of "Must Own Collection" is slightly different. I own these movies but just 1 copy.

    I've also stated that studios know that these movies will sell by the millions so they will not release them until the optimal time. LOTR/SW is no indication of a products infiltration into the market place. As stated before, SW was not released until 2004.

    These are just phrases that I have defined to indicate the differences in movie released... if my phrase doesnt suit your definition of the phrase then just change the phrase. There is no argument here. Toe-may-toe... To-maa-to...
     
  13. LarryH

    LarryH Supporting Actor

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    Surely they could release some high-profile titles now to get the formats on people's radar and then come out with some phony enhanced version to hype in a couple of years. They do that all the time with regular DVD's so why not exploit the HD market the same way.
     
  14. Dave Moritz

    Dave Moritz Producer
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    When oh when will the format be sucsessful enough for them to release Lord Of The RIngs in HD, is defanently the question. It makes me wonder if they are trying to milk the SD-DVD market as much as possible? I dont see why they at least dont release a bare bones standard edition of LOTR. The same thing seems to be happening with Pirates Of The Caribbean as well. And god only knows when Lucas will feel like releasing Star Wars in HD. I wouldn't be suprised if we have a better chance of seeing American Graffiti in HD before LOTR's, POTC and SW.
     
  15. Glenn Overholt

    Glenn Overholt Producer

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    Well, as long as we're changing questions, I think I have a better one!

    How many here would be into HD if there wasn't a format war going on?
    How many people just aren't buying anything at all until that gets resolved?

    What should a studio do, release the big sellers in 3 formats? How will the stores get 3 times the space in order to please everybody?

    That is why you're waiting. I think what has happened is that the plans the studios had for releasing HD disks have been changed just because of the format war. Production lines that were probably scheduled for the change to an HD format have been put on hold.

    I won't be buying any HD disks until something comes out that I don't have and that won't be available in any other format. This would be "forcing my hand". After I get an HD player, I'd double-dip on a few titles, but I'm not going to replace all of my 1200 + SD disks.

    So, what needs to be done is to put an end to the format war.

    Glenn
     

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