For me it's not a question of which movies the two systems cover, nor is it a question of which format is better in terms of quality and space on the discs. I'm looking at three things:
1. Which format is most durable in terms of disc damage. Currently it seems like HD has the advantage here. With the data being so close to the surface on Blu-Ray discs there's no way, even with the durable coating, that the discs won't sometimes get scratched in a way that's irreparable. Blu-Ray discs are already more expensive to make, so with the added durability issue it makes them much more expensive. I've had quite a few issues with scratched discs in my regular DVD collection and it just seems that the situation will be far worse with Blu-Ray.
2. Which format is going to be popularly accepted. The fact is, as others here have pointed out, the terms 'High Definition', 'HDTV', 'HDMI' and 'HD' are everywhere on TV ads for high def cable channels, in TV stores, everywhere. Blu-Ray is virtually nowhere except on HD channels (where people with no HDTV can't see it) and in PS3 ads where non-gamers won't see them. To me it seems clear that people recognise 'HD' because it's virtually in the public consciousness. With that being the case, I just don't see Blu-Ray winning, however good it is.
3. Which format will win the war. Simple as that - if HD looks most likely to win, that's what I'll buy. Currently this site has a forum for Blu-Ray players and a forum for HD players. The HD forum has 2612 posts while the Blu-Ray forum has 862 posts. That basically says it all. If these things don't change Blu-Ray is going to go the way of the 8-Track and Betamax. It may be technologically better, but it will fail because its marketing campaign is third-rate.
The more I think about this the more it becomes apparent to me that there may be no need for a "Format war" at all... Any missing Must Have titles on either format are likely to be offered via other venues such as from services like the Xbox Live Video Marketplace or HD On Demand from DirectTV, Comcast and other carriers. Most of these services are rental only right now (although purchase options are likely to be offered very soon) and most would be inferior to either HD-DVD or BD but... For a consumer looking to get their favorite movies in HD this would allow most of us to complete our catalogs regardless of format and would still be superior to the SD DVD (in most respects).
I don't believe there are *any* movies that can end the War. While a lot of fans of particular movies might as a result opt for one format or another A) I don't think there are enough of them who aren't satisfied with the DVD version to make a difference in the War and B) there are a lot of movies pulling both ways, essentially canceling each other out. There is no knockout software blow that I can see.
The only exception might be a huge Titanic-like blockbuster that comes out in the future ONLY on one of the formats, and not also on SD DVD. The only way to own it (maybe for a limited window) would be on either HD DVD or BD. That might do it. But I'm very doubtful the studios would voluntarily give up that SD DVD revenue stream to make a difference---it would have to be Sony doing it, since they're the only studio with a big enough stake in a format to want to turn down SD sales in order to hoist that format up. Let's say Spider-Man 3 makes a bajillion dollars and is a huge hit. Would Sony release it only on BD to encourage adoption? Maybe, but that would be risky in the world of "what have you done for me this quarter"?
Well if you read past posts on this forum: 1. King Kong (nope!) 2. Batman Begins (nope!) 3. The Matrix (we'll see) 4. Harry Potter (we'll see) 5. LotR (possibly) 6. Star Wars (don't hold you breath!)
I thought PF: DSotM would win the HiRez music format war. WRONG!!! So, don't ask me! ;-)
Your statements about price and release dates are only short-term situations because the competition between the two high definition formats will surely drive prices down and quality up faster. You will see more and more HD DVD and dare I say, Blu-ray releases day and date as the formats mature …you can bet on that. I had a very large DVD collection...well over 1000 titles and you know what? I sold nearly all of them. Yep, all those nifty special editions as well. Now, I'm not trying to say I am in the majority, but there are other nut cases like me out there… for sure.
I don't believe that any single movie can end the "war".
I also think that we are an unrepresentative group to think we can influence it
For example. I have a high end audio system, Sony Pearl, Hi Power 120" screen..... What %age have this. Not many
My point is that our views are distrorted by our enthusiasm for the category
As for me. I picked up the HDDVD from value electronicsd for $299 and rent (not buy) discs from Netflix. Whoops, i got King Kong with my player, so I have one
I'll buy a PS3 or a low end Blu ray player in 2007.
Wioth my setup. I just have to have these formats.
I don't believe that any single movie can end the "war".
I also think that we are an unrepresentative group to think we can influence it
For example. I have a high end audio system, Sony Pearl, Hi Power 120" screen..... What %age have this. Not many
My point is that our views are distrorted by our enthusiasm for the category
As for me. I picked up the HDDVD from value electronicsd for $299 and rent (not buy) discs from Netflix. Whoops, i got King Kong with my player, so I have one
I'll buy a PS3 or a low end Blu ray player in 2007.