Warner's Total HD cripples HD DVD (temporarily) and Blu-ray (permanently) (1 Viewer)

[MarekM]

maybe junk for you,
so for you is HD15 or BD25 ok then....
or like KK on HD30 without dolbytrueHD due bandwith limits...., and you probably want LOTR or MATRIX just with DD+1.5mibit, yes ?

I am all for ONLY movies releases, but with TOP PQ and AQ, give me DolbyTrueHD 48khz/24bit on every title... than I will say GIVE THEM NOW.....

Marek

 

[ScottHM]

Which makes sense, since at 30GB and 25GB respectively (for dual-layer HD/single-layer BD) Warner can put essentially the same content on each side. If both formats are dual layer you will either have to shortchange the HD side, or leave about 40% of the Blu-ray side empty, which defeats the purpose of DL.

---------------

 

[ScottHM]

I don't object to extra features, I just am not generally too interested in them. There's barely time enough for me just to watch the main features.

At the moment I'm still watching DVDs on a 55" television, so I'm looking at this issue from the outside, not having yet made a commitment to either HD format. To be honest with you, I have no problem with long movies being split across two discs since I don't normally want to sit still for three or four hours anyway. So the idea that a 30GB/25GB disc doesn't hold an entire three hour movie doesn't really bother me, as long as the cost is tolerable.

---------------

 

[Fozziwig]

I really don't follow your reasoning on this one. I can read what you are writing, I simply disagree with your analysis and claims about future HD DVD performance. However, I do agree that HD DVD have provided very poor support to their customer base in the past few months.

I really don't believe catalogue titles are going to make things happen for either format. What HD DVD have coming up in the next few months is predominantly catalogue. That may keep things ticking over but it won't drive the HD DVD user base up in the way that is being forecast - a further 1.4 million HD DVD players (including X-box add-on) over the next 9 months (over 150,000 per month on average).

Both sides need a steady stream of Casino Royale's to really boost sales and persuade people on the sidelines to buy into HD disc. Blu-ray seems to have the edge on the big hitting titles at the moment.

As far as I am aware all the statistical data in my post was factual - as reported by Nielsen VideoScan. BTW, it's worth noting that they do not report for the whole market (Walmart figures are not reported by Nielsen, for example). Even then, I agree it is a small market, but a 2:1 sales lead in any market cannot be dismissed lightly.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the March and April figures progress. In my amateurish way (and despite poor reading skills) I forecast that Blu-ray sales will rise to a significant 3:1 lead over HD DVD and probably extend that to 3.5:1 by the close of April (outside chance of 4:1). There, just put my head on the block!

You are forecasting a recovery for HD DVD, unless I read you incorrectly, so we should see the sales ratio close to below 2:1 by the time the April numbers come in, if you're correct.

Not too long to wait. I shall return, with Nielsen VideoScan data in hand!

Finally, people who signed up many years ago on HTF do not have some kind of superior bragging rights when it comes to posting on these boards. I'd like to think equal consideration and respect would be given to all posts and members, whatever the length of service they may have on a particular forum. I have no doubt that the vast majority of HTF users would agree with that.

 

[Fozziwig]

Fair enough.

I must say that I think that the discussion of sales levels is relevant to the THD announcement.

First of all, I think that THD is an absolutely atrocious idea. Not just bad, put a decision on the scale of 'New Coke' or the Ford Edsel. Forcing HD DVD customers to buy Blu-ray and vice versa is absolutely outrageous in my view (can you tell I don't like it yet?) - if I walk into a store to buy a product of MY CHOICE I do not want a product NOT OF MY CHOICE glued to it - and have to pay for the BLOODY THING!!

The only upside that I see is that the anti-Sony crowd will be investing in Blu-ray every time they buy a Warner title - thank you for your support in advance.

Now, the reason sales are relevant here is that if sales of the two formats were 50:50 then THD would seem like an almost reasonable thing to do. But we currently have a situation where one format outsells the other by a 2:1 margin week in, week out. At the moment glueing the low selling format to the high selling one seems to be a way to cheat the statistics and make the low selling one look better. At 2:1 maybe that can be tolerated, just.

But what if, and yes, this is speculation, sales went to 3:1 or 4:1? At that stage 80% of the customers for THD will NOT want half of the product and sales figures for THD will seriously distort true support for both formats.

I would expect that Blu-ray customers will be the least worried about the quality of THD (at least in the early stages) because the Blu-ray layer of 25GB can deliver perfectly good results (BD50 is still preferable for 2 hour+ titles). Whether the 15GB HD DVD layer can deliver results that HD DVD customers will be happy with remains to be seen.

Knowing they are watching a HD title that is only on a 15GB layer will have people seeing artifacts left, right and centre (even if they aren't really there). It will spoil the HD experience for many.

But, Warner don't care about any of the above, apparently. :frowning:

 

[Cees Alons]

Guy,

Again: we have discussed THD in other threads already (and they aren't closed, BTW). So that wasn't the point.

Also: "Warner doesn't care" in the context of this thread isn't really applicable either, because the article was only a heads up about the state of the THD technology. No announcements.

And the short period when only 15Gb/25Gb would be available would be from June till August this year, according to that article. From August on, 30Gb/50Gb would be ready for the market, it said.
And no mentioning of a particular title (or titles) that would be output using any of those two technologies.

Frankly: no one here knows what we would be talking about in practice (in terms of specific releases)!
Could be terrible and disgusting - or could be nothing at all.


Cees

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Got it.

Cees,

the reason I was confused was because over a month ago when Warner first announced the THD concept, it was known then that the single-BD layer version would come out first, with the dual-layer BD version later. So I was confused why this was suddenly being posted here as if it was a surprise to everyone. Your point about it being a non-issue with the temporary delay in dual-layer ramp-up comports with my own "this is a non issue" perspective.

Regarding staying on track of the topic... I'm also confused! The thread title is in regards to the dual/single-layer issue. I've read the whole thread but I'm not sure what "on topic" now refers to. So please clue me in!

dave

 

[Cees Alons]

To me the thread is about the perceived "crippling" of the formats by the THD, because only 15Gb/25Gb will be available for some time. Just like the title and the first post say.

I can heartily agree with you (I stated it in post #2 already) that it's a non-issue in this form: already known before and extremely limited in time.

Of course, other posters can argue about that, and then others can disagree with that and so on.
Unfortunately, the thread became almost just any other one about the THD concept, HD DVD versus BD sales, how the war was won, etc.


Cees

 

[ScottHM]

Warner cares about selling movies, on disc. They don't care about whether it's Sony or Toshiba collecting the format royalties. Warner apparently believe that a combined format disc will help them sell more product. That appears to be all there is to it; at least I don't see any need for there to be more to it.

---------------

 

[Jesse Blacklow]

No mention of Blu-ray beating that growth? Again, awfully selective of you.

 

[Norman Matthews]

This is a dumbfounding statement, unless you mean to say it's not "solely due" (with which I would agree) or "mostly due" (with which I would disagree, but is at least defensible).

But to say the rise in BD purchasing is not due to the recent discounts? Really? No one's buying more discs now that they're at half-price? One look at the threads trumpeting these sales all over every message board in any way concerned with Blu-Ray shows that this is just sheer nonsense, no two ways about it.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Where are all these half-price discs that are creating such a surge in sales? When I went on-line last week to purchase some new titles, I paid the usual HD DVD/BD prices (ie, the BDs weren't disproportionately less money than any other format).

 

[Norman Matthews]

They're all right here.

You must not be looking very hard.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Thanks for the link. This is the first I've heard of this.

BTW, even without a sale price Casino Royal managed to make amazon's top-10 list of movie orders this week (DVD, HD DVD, BD combined)...

 

[Jason Seaver]

Except that the entire market isn't Warner's concern. That Sony, Fox, Disney, Warner, Lion's Gate and Paramount are selling twice as many BDs as Warner, Paramount, Universal, and the Weinstein Company in aggregate isn't as important to Warner as sales of a given title on HD DVD and BD being roughly equal (or the proportions not being predictable). They likely figure that any sales they lose from the price going up will be made up by that price being higher and sales to people who fear having an expensive coaster in two years.

 

[Chris S]

I'm not sure I understand the concern over 30Gb/25Gb THD with respect to Warner releases. Warner has stated numerous times that the content they release on HD-DVD will be the same as the BD. So even if the BD side contained an extra 20Gb over the HD-DVD's 30Gb I would be very surprised if that space was ever utilized. Both sides should have equal content no matter the space considerations and that content will more than likely be bit for bit identical (video & audio, not menus). So the most BD is really likely to use will be 30Gb and not the full 50Gb.

 

[Ryan-G]

I think the most important thing to consider here among your points is, no matter what, this is the way it'll be from here out. Even if the 3 HD-DVD studios start releasing titles like mad, they're still dwarfed by the number of BR studios, and that's assuming that Warner and Paramount completely stop BR production.

HD-DVD has fewer than half the studios, it'll have fewer than half the amount of new titles as a general rule.

So honestly, this is a telling factor for why HD-DVD is unlikely to make it. Library size. BR can, at any point it wishes, reiterate the release disparity, and they can do it with significantly less financial investment per studio.

In fact, if BR really wishes to, when HD-DVD releases it's "Bombs" like Jurassic Park and LotR, BR can release Star Wars, Indiana Jones, and a significant number of other headliner titles simply washing them out in the flood.

 

[Edwin-S]

I don't get it. Where does it say in that article that 30gig/50gig discs will be available from August onward? It says that from August onward the THD will be 30GB HD/25GB BD. That certainly looks like a "crippling" to me. Warner is not only going to limit the contents of BD to conform to the limitations of HD DVD, it is also appears as if they are going to ensure that the capacity of the BD side is no greater than that of HD DVD. As far as I'm concerned THD doesn't stand for Total High Definition; it stands for Trojan Horse Disc. It is just Warner's way of trying to ensure that BD conforms to the capabilities of HD DVD......at least in their sphere of influence.

 

[Edwin-S]

Why should they? What if the HD DVD side doesn't have the capacity or the bandwidth available for full lossless audio, similar to what happened on KING KONG. I guess that means that the BD side which could support a full lossless audio track shouldn't get it because the HD DVD side didn't get it. Limiting the BD content to what will fit on HD DVD is BS. These THS discs should sit on the shelf and rot.

 

[Tim Glover]

Can someone tell me how Amazon's charts are now validated and important when we were told last year that when HD DVD led those charts they were not to be taken seriously and not representative? The discounting of amazon's sales were here and on the digital bits. Now we see them being used...Not a real good way to ask that without coming across sarcastic but I would like to know what Amazon did to make themselves all of sudden chart validating