Walmart orders 2 million $299 HD DVD players, in stores soon! (1 Viewer)

[Tim Glover]

Shane nails it again.....And it is kind of close to the Toshiba A2 already selling for $300.

But a Wal-Mart influence is a BIG factor. Getting interesting...

 

[Edwin-S]

I think it is going to be less of an influence than people think. What everyone seems to be forgetting is that SECURITY of content is paramount to companies like FOX and DISNEY. That is why they chose to release only on Blu-ray. Their perception is that Blu-ray has more security options than HD DVD. FOX and DISNEY would have released on HD DVD a long time ago if they cared about the extra money that HD DVD sales represent. They don't. They care about protecting their master quality intellectual property from piracy at all costs.

Chinese branded players may make them even less likely to release on HD DVD. As far as I'm concerned, handing AACS license keys over to the manufacturers of no-name Chinese players is like having the fox guard the chicken coop. If HD DVD wins due to Wal-Mart then there may be two other scenarios that occur. One is that FOX and DISNEY refuse to release any HD content on to HD DVD and wait for a secure, downloadable model to occur. Two is that they continue to release only on Blu-ray which continues to result in people having to have two players or a combo player.

 

[Cees Alons]

Like with DivX, I think Disney will switch first, but Fox last.


Cees

 

[Sanjay Gupta]

I think 'Edwin-S', is absolutely right, in stating that Fox and Disney will probably never release to HD-DVD, no matter what happens in this war. Protecting their master quality intelectual property is far more important to them than the small revenues HD-DVD could generate for them anytime in the near future. Both these studios will be more than content to continue releasing just to Blu-Ray. After all, out of the three supposedly possible scenarios:

1. 'Blu-Ray Wins & HD-DVD dissapears'
2. 'HD-DVD wins & Blu-Ray dissapears'
3. 'Neither win & both exist side by side'.

Scenario number 2 is never going to happen, simply because of Sony's PS3. After all Blu-Ray is an integral part of the PS3 and thus it can never be taken out of it. I know some here are thinking, what if the PS3 ceases to exist? Yeah, like that is really going to happen and millions of PS3 owners worldwide are just going to throw away their players. I think a lot of people are really overlooking the brilliant (might not seme so in the short term) decision by Sony to include Blu-ray in the PS3. By doing so, they have in a way insured that there will always be millions of players worldwide for Blu-Ray software and thus for always a market for the likes of Disney, Fox & Sony to release Blu-Ray disks for.

We all know how much Walmart means for Disney sales, but has anyone considered the fact that Walmart too needs the Disney software. Imagine a situation where Walmart was no longer a shopping option for anyone (and that's a lot of anyones) who wanted Disney software. Personally I have a hard time accepting that Walmart is going to go thru with just supporting HD-DVD without having Disney on board.

 

[ppltd]

If Walmart stopped carrying BD Disney releases (not very likely) and Disney didn't release in HD, there would be no lose of revenue for Walmart. The sales are too minicule to make any difference to Walmart's bottom line.

As far as your points, and of the three could happen. A few million PS3's in the market has little impact on the HD and BD world. Now maybe 30 or 40 Million, and it would be different. But I do agree with you, it is not very likely to happen.

 

[Sanjay Gupta]

I think the current worldwide estimate for the number of PS3 sold are already over 3 million and the current industry (SFG Research" Susquehanna Financial Group of the Susqueahanna International Group LLP (a research and investment banking firm) estimates are:

North America
2006: 0.5m
2007: 7.6m
2008: 13.8m
2009: 19.5m
2010: 24.2m

Worldwide
2006: 1.0m
2007: 19.5m
2008: 35.5m
2009: 50m
2010: 62m

With those kind of figures, or even with half those numbers, it's hard to imagine any studio being able to justify to it's investors a decision to stop releasing software on Blu-Ray or to continue not releasing on Blu-Ray like Universal.

PS: I am sure a good number of those expected US PS3 sales will be from Walmart itself and they would not want to send the customer to someone else for thir Blu-Ray discs.

 

[JackKay]

An interesting view point from Paul Sweeting

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6435465.html

less edited version here

http://contentagenda.com/blog/1500000150.html

 

[ppltd]

Assuming Sony can quantify BD content sales to the PS3. It certainly is not happening in the numbers they expected or promised the studios.

It will be interesting to see if Sony can hit any where near those projections. IMHO, Not likely, based on the rather flat sales the PS3 is currently maintaining. Even Sony has drawn back from the expectations. I also question the 3 million sold. This is 200k higher then the highest sales figures I question to date. The last report from Europe from Sony showed the the initial 1 mil delivered still had not been completely sold.

Additionally, you are looking many years into the future. If Walmart does bring in this low priced HD player, the Sony PS3 figures may be a wash.

 

[ppltd]

Wher have you been? Since when has Walmart been about quality products? The Walmart shopper shops the store for price. They now if they have a defective item, Wlamart will always exchange it, and the policies Walmart sets up with their suppliers is that they accept any thing back Walmart sends.

If Walmart sells low priced HD HVD players, no matter what the quality, it will a hugh positive impact on the format. This is all about numbers. The more units, the more content support, period.

I don't know about you, but as someone who purchases high end equipment, I do not shop for my audio and video gear at Wlamart. These HD players in question are targeting the average consumer, not us.

 

[Ron-P]

Not quite.

While cheap HD-DVDs players is a small help for HD-DVD the hugh positive impact will be when the software hits $16 or so, about the same price as current SD's. Your average Walmart (cheap-o) shopper is not going to spend $25+ on a single movie (current Wally prices) even if he can buy a player for $300 or less. Like you said, it's all about the numbers, but software numbers, not hardware.

No matter what Wally does, or anyone else, until the price of software drops significantly these formats are on the edge of dying.

I don't care which format lives or dies. I support both and will continue to do so even though most of my purchases are Blu-ray now, there doing a better job then HD-DVD, better studio support and most every BR has lossless audio where as HD-DVD, few and far between.

 

[Dave H]

Yep. I've never understood why some people think cheap Chinese players will only be exclusive to HD DVD.

 

[Jason Harbaugh]

I still don't see why people think the price of the player is the biggest hurdle. If you look at the number of each title being sold compared to the total number of players HD DVD and Blu-ray out there, you will see that they are tiny fractions compared to the actual install base. It is the price of the actual media that is hurting sales the most. They could give away the players at Walmart but as soon as the owners walk over to the media isle and see the prices, they will probably think again.

Personally I think Walmart is the worst possible thing for the HD format on either side, at least this early. Don't forget how they nearly ruined the DVD format with their demands for 'full screen' formated DVD's. Now that they are finally selling widescreen tv's, they may end up being the first and probably loudest in requesting that HD or BD movies be reformatted to 16x9 and it will be the OAR war all over again.

 

[TravisR]

The average soccer mom or hillbilly that is a Wal Mart shopper that also wants the movie to fill the screen isn't buying this product though. To elaborate on a point you made, I don't think there's that many people who want a full screen movie but are also willing to spend $300 on a player and $30 on discs. If they want to watch a pan and scan movie, they probably don't care enough about a quality presentation to spend that much more money.

I think that, while it definitely can't hurt HD DVD to have Wal Mart on their 'side', they still have to actually sell the players. Just because they're on Wal Marts shelves doesn't mean that it'll automatically sell.

 

[Mickey Brown]

Some of your attitudes on this forum about the intelligence level of the typical Wal Mart shopper makes me want to gag. Television manufacturers make widescreen televisions now. People will want to buy a video player that takes advantage of the new television. Sub 300 dollars is the price point ALL people can identify with. It will sell well.

This is great news for any home theater lover. This will put the players (hopefully) in the hands of everyone who has a high def television.

25 inch widescreen LCD's are sub 500 dollars. Being able to put a HD DVD player on the counter next to it that also plays DVD is going to be big. It gives the consumer options to buy HD or SD titles.

Plus this will drive prices down for higher end players that the true videophiles will shop for.

 

[TravisR]

Just to clarify, I was using the example of 'soccer mom' and 'hillbilly' because that's the type of person that is being referred to (whether it's true or not) when people here talk about the Wal Mart shopper.

 

[Terrence B]

Man do I agree. This is why I didn't want joesixpack to even buy into either HD on disc format. Its seems at that point we have to fight to keep the format true to its film counterpart.

 

[Todd H]

Ugh. Wal-Mart.

My local Wal-Mart finally sells HDTVs. You know how they demo them? With pan and scan DVD's streched out to fill the screen. Then when I go to the DVD section, 90% of them are pan and scan. And this is the company people want to trust with bringing HD to the masses?

 

[Sanjay Gupta]

Cheap Chinese HD-DVD players is one more reason you will not see the major Japanese manufacturers release HD-DVD players. Here they were looking to finally make a decent profit on selling players for 'HD' and along comes cheapo Chinese players and the dreams of those profits vanish. I am willing to bet that these cheap chinese players are going to be another, if not the final, nail in the HD-DVD coffin. Also handing over encryption/decryption keys to the Chinese manufacturers is giving studios like Fox and Disney even more reason to stay away from HD-DVD.

 

[Dave H]

Interesting points.

 

[ChristopherG]

This sounds like a case of wishful thinking (words in bold). Do you honestly think that if this story is true, that Wallymart is dumping 100 million into HD DVD players, that it is for the thrill of backing something that is going to fail? C'mon.