This year is gonna be FAT! (1 Viewer)

[TerryRL]

I honestly think that "Spider-Man" and AOTC will both open bigger than "The Lost World". With higher ticket prices and more mega-plexes, I think both films will exceed the $72 million debut of the dino sequel.

I also think "Spider-Man", if it's good, could end up challenging 1989's "Batman" as the most successful (domestically) superhero/comic book flick ever made. "Batman" is still numero uno with it's $251 million take, but "Men in Black" owns the worldwide mark of any film based on a comic book with it's $586 million take. Again, if it's good, don't be surprised if Spidey takes both records and establishes itself as the biggest comic book film franchise in the land.

AOTC's box office success is pretty much a forgone conclusion. The movie is going to be a big improvement over TPM (which I loved in spite of it's weaknesses) and will boast some of the coolest action sequences ever attempted in the SW franchise. The only real question is how much over $300 million the movie makes.

I still believe "Panic Room" will prove to be a big hit. I have no doubt that "Resident Evil" will have a good opening, I just don't know if it'll have legs past it's first two weeks.

 

[Josh_Hill]

Yeah, I wouldnt be suprised if Spidey beats Batman, but it still wont be the best comic. That will always belong to Superman!
No doubt that AOTC and Spidey will break Lost Worlds record and AOTC will probably break Harry Potter's record.

 

[TerryRL]

Donny, you're right. "Spider-Man" may very well end up being bigger than "Batman" was, but all must still hail to the greatness that is "Superman: The Movie".

I'd be surprised if AOTC opened as big as HP did. I think since AOTC opens on a Thursday that may take a bit away from it's Friday thru Sunday tally. Still, don't be surprised if HP, AOTC, and Spidey are the top 3 biggest opening films in history by the end of the summer.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Unless school's arrange field trips to AOTC, it's going to be hard-pressed to match Potter, at least first weekend.

Mark, are you forgetting The Game which had the star power of Michael Douglas and Sean Penn. A Douglas coming off of several $16m openings including Basic Instinct 5 years before. The Game came out at $16m but died at $48m.

Compare to similar time frame

Perfect Murder the next year - 16.6m/67m

Basic Instinct 15.1m/117m

American President 65m total

Disclosure 83m total

And Brad Pitt to open both Se7en and Fight Club, yet FC struggled.

My point is that Fincher has had a bankable star or franchise (Alien3) for his 4 majors and only 1 has made strong money (Se7en). Foster will not make or break Panic Room, only the appeal of the story.

If it's good it could have legs, not as good as the shocking 7 which had a whole nation talking about it, but into the $80m range. But if it doesn't have some incredible hook it could easily go the way of The Game or Fight Club. In many ways it feels like it will play to the same audience that The Game played too.

A good film yes, but bankable I'm not so sure. Fincher needs the story to work to make money, he can't do it on his own or without a mega-star yet. And even then it's less than a 50/50 shot so far.

Of course FC has enjoyed a good DVD run and Panic Room might be sold to the masses on the legs of Se7en and FC.

 

[Terrell]

To me, Panic Room looks far more bankable than The Game, Fight Club, and Alien3. The Game and Alien3 were terrible in my opinion. Fight Club I wouldn't call terrible, but I hated it. I'm not surprised it didn't make money. So I think Panic Room has more appeal. I always tend to overestimate on box office predictions.

 

[Josh_Hill]

Why the hell is AOTC opening on a Thurs. anyway? I think Lucas got the dates messed up and it should be the 15th. No doubt it will beat Potter in the long run, but I think its got a great shot at taking out the weekend record too. I mean, anyone whose seen the trailer is pumped for this flick!

 

[Chuck Mayer]

The Thursday AOTC release is to support as close to a worldwide release date (most films open on Thursday in non-U.S. countries) as possible. Makes sense...I don't think Lucas gives a crap about the weekend record, although I am sure the bean counters and many of the fans do.

Panic Room crosses several fan bases I think, Seth. It's also being very EFFECTIVELY advertised on TV. The fans: Hollywood thrillers (much bigger than the next two, will make or break the bank depending on how much they like the movie), Jodie (will go regardless), and Fincher (will go regardless - while this is the smallest group, it's a lot bigger now due to FC's reputation on the home market). The proper convergence here, and he'll have a "hit." I expect big things from Panic Room, but around $80-100 M is "big things" IMO. I imagine I'll add a bit to that if I can. I'd burn the negatives of EVERY summer movie just to see this one.

Take care,

Chuck

 

[Mark Pfeiffer]

Seth, maybe I don't know what I'm talking about (which is entirely possible), but has Brad Pitt ever been a strong opener for films? My memory says that he hasn't. Jodie Foster is one of the top actresses to open films, and I think her presence in Panic Room is a major boost for the picture.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Mark, it's hard to see for sure because I can't get opening numbers at IMDb for the earlier stuff, but he was in several $100m films early on (including 7).

Later he opened Legends of the Fall and Meet Joe Black with $15m bows and Mexican had a $20m bow (Julia is a big part of that too).

Since Se7en was Fincher's $100m film and Pitt and Freeman were the 2 selling actors, it seems clear that Fincher was able earn with Pitt, and that at least after this point Pitt has been able to open films. Yet Fight Club couldn't due it.

Maybe Pitt as romantic lead is more bankable than Fight Club, but I also think Fincher needs the story to play wide to get the BO. I don't think Foster gives him a lot more than Pitt, Douglas, Penn already did.

But if the film is an exciting thriller that the masses can dig (ie, not too eccentric) he'll make money with any moderate star, Foster or otherwise. Just like Se7en. But if not, then Foster isn't going to salvage the BO.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Oh, and I'll be seeing it as I think it looks pretty exciting and I love Fincher's style so far.

Besides Foster, I'm also a big Forrest Whitaker fan (even in BEarth).

 

[TerryRL]

Forrest Whitaker was all-world in "Ghost Dog".

I'm really looking forward to "Panic Room". Again, I don't know if it'll be a $100 million performer, but I do believe it'll be a big hit.

As for Brad Pitt, for his career he has been in 3 films that earned over $100 million. "Interview With the Vampire", "Se7en", and "Ocean's Eleven". He had big hits with "Legends of the Fall", "Twelve Monkeys", "Sleepers", and "The Mexican".

"Meet Joe Black", "Seven Years in Tibet", "The Devil's Own", and "Fight Club" were all financial disappointments.

 

[TerryRL]

2002 has it's first blockbuster-like opening with the animated film "Ice Age".

Friday's top 3 films were...

"Ice Age" $13.7 million (projected weekend haul: $45-$55 million)

"Resident Evil" $6.7 million (projected weekend haul: $18-$20 million)

"Showtime" $5 million (projected weekend haul: $15-$17 million)

Lucasfilm deciding to make the new "Attack of the Clones" trailer exclusive to the opening of "Ice Age" proved to be a very shrewd move as the Fox animated film blew away all industry projections of it's opening. Most figured it would open at $20 million at the absolute most.

"Ice Age" will become the biggest March opening ever, but it may hold that record for only one week as next weekend will see the massive debut of "Blade II".

 

[Hakan Powers]

I havn't seen any mention in this thread of the Ben Affleck / Tom Clancy thriller Sum of all fears
Doesn't this open in May?
I personally hope it makes good numbers as I'd like to see the Jack Ryan franchise get a re-start.

 

[Terrell]

I've only got one question. Why in God's name does Ben Affleck replace an icon and one of my favorites Harrison Ford as Jack Ryan? I can't stand Affleck, and if that's who they got to replace him, I'll have to pass.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Believe it or not, I preferred Alec over Harrison myself. Terrell, the story of Sum takes place years before Patriot Games or Clear and Present Danger...they had to get someone younger...although I am not fan of Affleck myself.

Take care,

Chuck

 

[TerryRL]

Terrell, Affleck replaced Ford because Ford was basically tired of playing the role. Ford had nixed every single script revision sent to him and it became apparent to Paramount that he just wanted to do other things. When Affleck was offered the part, he called Ford to seek his "blessing" to do the role and Ford (from what Affleck said) was really gracious and wanted him to take on the part.

"The Sum of All Fears" opens on May 31st and don't be surprised if it does really well. Paramount is said to be so confident in the movie being a hit, that they've already begun talking about the next 'Jack Ryan' movie.

Speaking of Affleck, looks like we'll get our first glimpse of "Daredevil" when "Minority Report" opens in late June. It seems a small teaser will be attached to the Cruise/Spielberg sci-fi thriller. There's also talk that we'll also see the first teaser to "The Matrix Reloaded" attached to "Minority Report" as well.

 

[Terrell]

I don't have any problem with that, but Affleck was the best they could do? Ugh! I'd rather have Alec Baldwin back in the role. Maybe they tought they could make more money with Affleck. Too bad I can't get into it anymore with Affleck.

 

[TerryRL]

Affleck is considered to be a "hot" star by industry standards and Paramount really wanted him for the part. With films such as "Pearl Harbor", "The Sum of All Fears", and "Daredevil", Affleck is positioning himself to be among Hollywood's most bankable stars. Paramount gets a big star without having to pay an outrageous salary (Ford would've netted $25 mil for 'Sum', but Affleck is earning half of that amount with his $12.5 million asking price).

The decision to cast Affleck as the new Jack Ryan was a business decision, pure and simple. Affleck likely won't approach a $25 million payday until his third Ryan movie at the earliest.

 

[Terrell]

Although, I am interested in Sum Of All Fears, despite my dislike for Affleck as an actor. I guess it just depends on how the film looks. I know a lot of people don't like Alec Baldwin, but I liked him in the role of Jack Ryan. I'd rather have him than Affleck, but I don't get to make that decision do I.

 

[TerryRL]

Despite how cool Harrison Ford was in the role of Jack Ryan, like Chuck, I prefer Alec Baldwin in the role. "Patriot Games" and "Clear and Present Danger" were very good movies, but they don't compare to "The Hunt for Red October". That movie simply kicks ass. Baldwin was a great Jack Ryan and it's a shame that Paramount dumped him for Ford.

I do intend on seeing "The Sum of All Fears". I think Affleck will do a decent job, but his supporting cast is top-notch. I mean, c'mon, this movie has Morgan Freeman and James Cromwell in it. Without them, "Deep Impact" would've been nothing more than a television movie with good FX. Adding them to 'Sum' was a very wise decision on the part of the makers of this movie.