This year is gonna be FAT! (1 Viewer)

[Scott Weinberg]

Excellent discussion going on here, fellas!
I'm not much on projecting B.O. numbers (I predicted big things for Osmosis Jones ), but I think Spider-Man is going to be absolutely massive.
The marketing for this flick has been phenomenal, and I have yet to meet someone who doesn't want to see it. (And a lot of these people are not of the "gotta see it opening weekend" variety.) It will dominate its two weeks before AOTC hits, and then it will STILL make severe coinage thanks to what's generally known as "multiplex spillover".
We've all been there:
"Aw crap! Cutthroat Island is sold out!"
"Well, there's Batman and Codpiece! Let's see that!"
(How do you think Big Momma's House made so much money?)
My predictions may be slightly skewed by my youth-based Spidey-fanboy leanings, but I think it will easily make over $200 million.
Something more current: How do you guys think The Time Machine will do? It's a big-budget/FX-laden/adventure flick/remake/based on a novel with a lot of name recognition and a leading man poised for a huge breakout. Will it make $150 million overall? Given the past few months, moviegoers are probably dying for a good popcorn flick, so is it unrealistic to think The Time Machine could break $20 million in its opening weekend? (I think so, quite probably.)
I'd also like to see some B.O. predictions for movies like Death to Smoochy, Resident Evil and (although it's already been discussed) Panic Room. Oh, and Jason X too.
Lastly, how much effect will the upcoming "extra footage" have on LOTR: FOTR's overall B.O. total?
No matter how often I check the weekend B.O. numbers, I never really get a feel for what a good prediction would be. Could be that I'm just a moron where numbers are concerned. (I always failed math, and algebra gave me a mild yeast infection.) Hopefully this thread will help educate me in how to better predict a movie's domestic haul.

 

[Terrell]

I think Time Machine will come in at somewhere between 130-160 million bucks. I think it will do pretty good. At this point, I don't see FOTR getting a boost, at least one big enough to matter. The film isn't making much anymore. It's run is practically at an end. But it made a tremendous amount of money. I don't see anything boosting it's box office enough to matter at this point.

Death To Smoochy - 95 million

Resident Evil - 90 million

Panic Room - 160 million

Jason X - 40 million

 

[TerryRL]

Seth, you're right, "Blade II" will be one of those rare sequels that does massive more business than the original did. The first "Blade" movie earned a modest $70 million and has been helped greatly in the years by strong VHS/DVD sales. The sequel is going to do big business.

As for "The Time Machine", I think it'll do very well. I'd be surprised if it opened under $30 million. I fully expect it to become one this year's $100 million-plus earners. I think DreamWorks has done a really good job in marketing the film.

 

[Scott Weinberg]

Terrell - You think Panic Room is going to gross $160 million???
Domestic B.O. gross of David Fincher's films:
Se7en - $100,100,000
Alien3 - $56,000,000
The Game - $48,000,000
Fight Club - $37,000,000
Panic Room is definitely one of my most eagerly-anticipated movies this year, but I'd be AMAZED if it broke $120,000,000!
I think your Jason X prediction may prove pretty accurate, although I'm hoping it makes a bit more!
Death to Smoochy is a tough call, as mass audiences generally don't "embrace" dark comedy. The star power should help.
Resident Evil is a toss-up. It wouldn't surprise me at all if this were a surprise hit. It also wouldn't surprise me if it vanishes without a trace after 10 days.

 

[Terrell]

Death to Smoochy is a tough call

Yep, really tough. But then all of those films you asked about are tought calls with Jason X being the lone exception. I've been highly critical of this film, but I think hardcore fans will see it. It may not even make 40 million. Maybe 30 million. But even as bad as it sounds, like someone said, it was real cheap to make and if it makes 30-40 million, it will do a pretty good profit.

As for Death To Smoochy, I really have no idea. But since Robin Williams seems to be pretty popular, I gave it the benefit of the doubt. But it wouldn't surprise me to see this one flop.

Resident Evil, another tough call, but at best I'd say 90 million. But 65-70 million may be more realistic. No real star power to draw people in. And most people know how movies based on videogames turn out. Terrible. I've only seen one that was halfway decent in my opinion, and that was Mortal Kombat. And it was nothing more than pretty good.

 

[Scott Weinberg]

But even as bad as it sounds, like someone said, it was real cheap to make and if it makes 30-40 million, it will do a pretty good profit.

That was me! (OK, me and Matt...)

 

[Terrell]

That was me! (OK, me and Matt...)

 

[Seth Paxton]

Resident Evil = Tomb Raider lite

A similar but lesser fanbase and the film looks equally poor based on trailers. I'd say 70% of the Tomb Raider numbers at best.

Time Machine, should do decent but I look for it to falter quickly and fail based on early reviews. It has the CGI excitement to draw in an early crowd, but if it ends up playing like 6th Day...well, you know how that BO went.

Spider-Man and Blade 2 look to be 2 of the nicer runs of the year at this point.

Fincher is not big enough to draw a huge BO. I'd consider $100m for Panic Room a success and within range as well.

AOTC, Potter, and TTT should track their predecessors' numbers but at a typically lower PCT. Maybe 85-90% of the first films.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Terrell,
This Resident Evil has the same director as Mortal Kombat...I'd still say $60M tops. Panic Room...I can't wait, but I see more like $80-90M on that IF it hits big. Death to Smoochy is a dark comedy...they never do well, even with casts like that. I'll be there right after Panic Room I agree more with your most recent estimates than the originals. I predict small stuff for Smoochy...maybe $40M.
Take care,
Chuck

 

[Josh_Hill]

Whens Panic Room come out? Im just dying to see it!

 

[TerryRL]

"Panic Room" opens on March 29th.

 

[Tom Rags]

I remember that with TPM, Lucas made each theater sign a contract for a certain period of time that the movie would be in "the biggest theater" in the multi-plex in digital sound. Even after the market leveled off, it was still in the two "marquee" theaters in each multi-plex. I wonder if he has the same agreement with AOTC? If not, this could potentially harm AOTC legs. Just a thought...does anyone know for sure?

 

[Mark Pfeiffer]

Fincher is not big enough to draw a huge BO.

No, but Jodie Foster is. Not that I expect the numbers to be insanely high for Panic Room, but she seems to command a lot of interest from moviegoers in general. If the reviews and word-of-mouth are there, I think it will do pretty well.

 

[TerryRL]

Tom, it's currently unknown what type of deal Lucasfilm and Fox have with theater owners. Details of any such deal probably won't be made public until very close to the film's May 16th release date.

Mark, Foster is a big draw in spite of her last film ("Anna and the King") doing less than stellar business. Her previous two films before "Anna and the King" were both huge hits. Those films were "Contact" and "Maverick".

I think "Panic Room" will be David Fincher's biggest hit since "Se7en". I don't know if it'll crack the $100 million mark or not, but I do think it'll be a solid performer at the box office.

 

[Mark Pfeiffer]

Terry, I think we're in agreement. My point is that Foster's involvement should mean good things for the box office. I don't know that Fincher's name is necessarily selling tickets (except to the fanboys and the cineastes).

 

[TerryRL]

Mark, we are in agreement. The two biggest selling points of the movie have been A) Foster and B) the trailer. The trailer has generated a good amount of buzz for the movie, and having a two-time Oscar winner for Best Actress headlining the film definitely isn't hurting things.

Add that to the fact that two of Foster's last three films were big hits and "Panic Room" really has a shot at being a big hit for her, as well as director David Fincher.

Like Steven Soderbergh before him, I think Fincher will find a mass audience for his distinctive films. Look at Soderbergh before "Erin Brockovich". Great films, but they did very little in the way of box office. Since 'Brockovich', he's seen both "Traffic" and "Ocean's Eleven" become huge hits.

I think "Panic Room" will attract more than just Fincher's core audience. Having Jodie Foster onboard is a definite plus.

 

[Josh_Hill]

I say about $75mil for Panic Room.

 

[mark_d]

Paul Anderson is directing Resident Evil? This film has gone from absolutely zero interest to must see. I love MK and Event Horizon, never seen Shopping, and I'm hoping Soldier was just a mis-step.

Back to the discussion at hand - I'm in the Clones will not stomp on Spider-Man camp. I'm a big SW fan, and my anticipation for AOTC is MASSIVE, but it's only slightly less for Spidey. I actually think Spidey does have the broader appeal. I think if my wife was told she could see one and only one, she'd choose the web slinger. That's obviously an unrealistic scenario. We will, of course, see both.

Mark.

 

[John Berggren]

I remember hearing about the TPM deal. However theaters around here downgraded the film in week 2. It was bumped out of the finest auditorium in favor of the next-best in many theaters. I don't know why and I found it quite annoying. I didn't rat them out though, if I wasn't such a lazy schmuck I might have .
Regarding Jodie's prospects for Panic Room: She's going to add bank to this one. There are too many people out there who don't go to movies but will go when she stars, she's just that good. I'm not surprised Anna and the King didn't do well. It seems like a story that's been told often enough. I picked up the DVD recently at a Best Buy sale and I ended up wishing _I_ had gone to the theater. I found it was worth telling the story of Anna and the King again. Jodie & Chow's version was awesome.
I missed out on the theatrical run of Anna _and_ Fight Club. I won't be doing the same for Panic Room.

 

[Iain Jackson]

I would say that Spider-Man will open with at least $60m and could go on to make $200m. Panic Room is going to be a good performer, but nothing spectacular, probably around $80m in total. And as for Resident Evil, based on the trailer (which I thought was terrible), it'll open reasonably and then sink like a stone to about $30 or $40m.
Of course, I'm not exactly an expert at this kind of thing...