This year is gonna be FAT! (1 Viewer)

[Chuck Mayer]

Lou,
"Calling all freaks..."! How can I NOT got to the theater for that. I expect Blade II to do quite well, but I can't think of a woman I know (including the wife) who gives a crap! I can't wait to see it, though.
Paul, good point regarding Panic Room. I don't really care how much it makes. It'll make my money, and they'll have a kick-ass DVD regardless...it's Fincher.
Terrell,
If AOTC, or any movie movie with that much built-inanticipation, got anywhere NEAR Titanic's gross, I would be shocked into silence for the rest of my life.
Let's take a look: the most anticipated movie of all time, with 16 years of pent-up energy, two great trailers, and more VFX than you can shake a stick at comes out in 1999 with competition from The Mummy and Wild Wild West (please). It breaks records all over opening weekend, and while not loved, it is seen again and again by the die-hard fans. It earns a whopping $461M at home and the same amount overseas. You know what? IT WAS ONLY HALFWAY TO TITANIC'S GROSS. Think about that. You would have to DOUBLE TPM's gross to get Titanic's. Part of that was the burn-out (and eventual backlash) did not start until well into the run. Titanic appeared on public consciousness as a well-received film with incredible word of mouth. HP, SW, LOTR all were in the public's eye months before release. That little fuse that leads towards burnout was lit well-before the films even hit the theaters. Not with Titanic. The movie that will beat that record...you won't see it coming. And certainly not a niche film like AOTC (it's a big niche, but a niche nonetheless). Just my take. If TPM didn't do it, no "event" film will. And TPM's take wasn't even in the same league when the dust settled.
Take care,
Chuck

 

[Seth Paxton]

2 things

1) I forgot to say that John Q has played well on the strength of a major star, which counters my earlier point with Bruce opening Hart's War weakly.

2) Blade 2 is a much better example of a film that should opening strong. First film does okay but not great. Gets a good cult following by playing strong on video, builds it's audience. Star vehicle as well, effects, action. Big summer popcorn money in the making to me. The exact perfect formula for it, unless the movie is wretched, and even then it will have a lot of momentum to lose the first 2 weeks for it not to make some decent money.

 

[Seth Paxton]

okay, 3 things I guess.

That little fuse that leads towards burnout was lit well-before the films even hit the theaters.

Very good point. That's exactly part of the problem for many of these films.
Sequels of big films almost always struggle to match the first BO. Better to be the follow-up to a film that built popularity on video.

 

[Tom Ryan]

Well let's see.......hmmm. I don't see Episode II reaching the kind of gargantuan $90 million first weekend like Harry Potter for one reason; it opens on a Wednesday. Even TPM only made around $64 million when it debuted, because of the Wednesday factor.

Anyways, Episode II will probably make at least $70 million first weekend though. Also, if Episode II gets VERY favorable reviews and word of mouth, I think it has the potential to beat Episode I. People are still hungry for the Star Wars film they expected Episode I to be; ANH, ESB, etc. If it's that good, this one will go RIGHT through the roof.

But for now, I'm predicting $350 million for Episode II, $290 million for Harry Potter 2, and $250 million for TTT. Since sequels almost always make less than the films they follow, this seems reasonable. Either way, the filmmakers are going to be making a lot of money this year since they've already paid for their franchises with the profits from the first films.

-Tom

 

[TerryRL]

In the last couple of years, sequels have done remarkably well. We've seen such sequels like "Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me", "Toy Story 2", "Mission: Impossible 2", "Rush Hour 2", "The Mummy Returns", and "American Pie 2" not only open much bigger than their previous films, but all went on to out-gross them as well.

I'm not saying that that automatically means that this year's big sequels will do the same, I'm just saying that the possibility is there.

I think "Blade II" is going to replace "Liar Liar" as the biggest March opener ever. "Liar Liar" debuted with $31.4 million back in 1997 and has held on to that record ever since. I think the "summer event-film" feel of "Blade II" will result in an opening weekend north of $40 million. The first "Blade" movie earned $70 million back in 1998, but I think the sequel has $100 million hit written all over it.

What "Hannibal" did for February last year, I think (to a lesser degree), "Blade II" will do the same for March this year.

As for "Panic Room", I honestly think this will be David Fincher's biggest hit since "Seven". It may not end up being a $100 million performer, but I do think it'll do very well once it's released.

 

[Tom Ryan]

In the last couple of years, sequels have done remarkably well. We've seen such sequels like "Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me", "Toy Story 2", "Mission: Impossible 2", "Rush Hour 2", "The Mummy Returns", and "American Pie 2" not only open much bigger than their previous films, but all went on to out-gross them as well.

I'm not saying that that automatically means that this year's big sequels will do the same, I'm just saying that the possibility is there.

I think "Blade II" is going to replace "Liar Liar" as the biggest March opener ever. "Liar Liar" debuted with $31.4 million back in 1997 and has held on to that record ever since. I think the "summer event-film" feel of "Blade II" will result in an opening weekend north of $40 million. The first "Blade" movie earned $70 million back in 1998, but I think the sequel has $100 million hit written all over it.

What "Hannibal" did for February last year, I think (to a lesser degree), "Blade II" will do the same for March this year.

As for "Panic Room", I honestly think this will be David Fincher's biggest hit since "Seven". It may not end up being a $100 million performer, but I do think it'll do very well once it's released.

Terry, if you look at the numbers for the original films in the series you listed, you might see that they tend to have grossed smaller amounts at the box office. For instance, Toy Story did earn about $190 million, while Toy Story 2 earned around $250 million. Yes the sequel grossed more, but the first one didn't even break $200 million. I think the REALLY big sequels we're seeing are the ones that will fall short because the bar they have to beat is so much higher ($400 million!).

As for Panic Room, I think you could be right. It's a little sad to think that Se7en is Fincher's most successful film box office wise and yet it only made around $100 million. I really hope he gets a blockbuster someday (although it's not like he needs one to get creative control...I get the feeling he's a lot like Kubrick..his movies don't make a lot of money but they're so GOOD he just gets funding for whatever he wants to do next).

-Tom

 

[Terrell]

HP, SW, LOTR all were in the public's eye months before release. That little fuse that leads towards burnout was lit well-before the films even hit the theaters. Not with Titanic. The movie that will beat that record...you won't see it coming. And certainly not a niche film like AOTC (it's a big niche, but a niche nonetheless). Just my take.

Niche film? C'mon Chuck, there's no way that Star Wars is a niche film. I've heard Star Wars described a lot of ways, but never heard it called a niche film. No way you make 461 million dollars for SW by being a niche film. No way TPM makes 431 million as a niche film. No way you become that big, that popular, and that successful by being a niche film. I noticed you only said AOTC was the only niche film out of those 3. If so, how is AOTC a niche film, and Harry Potter and LOTR is not? The fact is none of them are niche films. AOTC and Star Wars is most certainly not a niche film, and neither is LOTR or Potter. They're just too big, too popular, and too well known to be classified as niche. Just because you have a huge group of rabid fans doesn't make it niche. Practically everyone old enough to in this country knows about it. The same can be said for most other countries. People will go to this that probably don't even care for Star Wars.
As for burnout, AOTC has had virtually no hype whatsoever, the way TPM had. So I don't see any burnout. And rabid fans that are on the internet and see this stuff all the time, they'd never get burned out. Casual fans and moviegoers know about, but they haven't been bombarded for 6 months like they were with TPM. Even that didn't suffer from burnout.
As for it beating Titanic, I didn't say AOTC would beat Titanic. I said it wouldn't surprise me. But then nothing surprised me anymore. If you would have told me Titanic would make 600 million, I'd have laughed in your face. As for beating Titanic, yes it would have to double if you're talking about worlwide gross. But I wasn't talking about that. I was talking about domestic gross which is 169 million ahead of TPM.
As for all of those statments, my estimate for Star Wars domestic haul is still 375 million dollars, and around 1.1 billion worldwide. I think it does a little more worldwide than TPM.

 

[John Berggren]

I think it might be more likely that Harry Potter 3 surpass both Harry Potter 1 and 2 as I think it's the strongest of the books - that should translate into the strongest of the films, but we'll see when the time comes.

AOTC- if it is indeed significantly better than TPM as we suspect it is, it might have better legs, but I know several obstinate people who went twice on TPMs opening weekend (based on advanced tickets) and refuse to go to the opening weekend based on that experience. One even says "I might check it out at the dollar theater if I hear good things". I myself plan to go on opening weekend. I am one of the few that liked Episode I.

All Spider-man has to do to warrant a sequel is better than X-men. Which means if it gets anywhere near $200 million US, the sequel will greenlight. The only thing that will inhibit Spider-man's earning power is a crowded marketplace. This is another one I'll be to on opening weekend.

TTT will only be inhibited on it's opening weekend by it's running length. Although as I don't know the running length for Harry Potter 2 or AOTC the same might be said for them. There ARE people who weren't fond of FOTR because "it had no ending" so it'll be interesting to see how it fares. I can't wait.

AP3 needs a title and soon. I didn't go see the first 2 theatrically, and I'll likely wait for DVD on this one. I'm sorry to hear that it's likely the last though. After all the fuss with MGM I'd love for there to be a 1:1 ratio on Austin Powers/007 movies.

As a TNG GEEK I hope Star Trek : Nemesis pulls better than Star Trek IV numbers. This won't put it anywhere near the former films in the list, but I'd like to see a grand slam for this film.

Panic Room could break 100$ on Jodie and Fincher. I think the success of Fight Club on home video will help this one win bigger bank. I know I wouldn't have gone to see Fight Club if you paid me based on advertisements.. And Fight Club is the main reason I'm wanting to go to PR ASAP.

No Ads yet for MIB2. At Queen of the Damned last weekend I saw a horrible ad for "Eight Legged Freaks" that I swear was using the MIB music. I'm very happy that it didn't turn out to be MIB2. This one should do well.

 

[Terrell]

My guess is AOTC will come in around 2 hours and 20 minutes at most. Episode III is the one that might be longer, and come in around 2 hours and 45 minutes. What does TTT come in at, 3 hours?

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Terrell,
Sorry I wasn't specific. Yes, HP and LOTR are niche films...almost every "event" film is a niche picture. HP really is two niches (fantasy and kids). And whether you like to believe it or not, SW is predominantly male. Probably over 80%, and I am being conservative. HP is much closer to 50-50, and even LOTR is more like 60-40. SW is a NICHE picture...it does NOT BEGIN to cross all age and gender barriers...like Titanic or GWTW did. AOTC will never reach $600M domestic, not if it's the greatest summer movie/SW movie ever. But it will open huge and break those records, for certain.
As for AOTC hype, are you joking? It's on the cover of Vanity Fair...it's FOURTH trailer is being premiered on TV, after a teaser teaser, an internet teaser, and a real teaser. Behind the scenes footage is online and on ET every other week. It will be on Premiere, Rolling Stone, and EW a few weeks before release. EVERYONE knows it is coming. That's hype. Titanic had NONE of that. I was excited in November...and no one where I worked had even heard of it. I assume everyone where you works knows EP II is coming out? And most know TTT and HP2 are coming as well. Do you see the point I am making?
Blade II will open huge, and easily beat Blade theatrically. I hope the best for Panic Room, and you guys are right...they certainly are hyping it with some great commercials
Take care,
Chuck

 

[Tom Ryan]

Chuck, I think you are switching genre and niche around, personally. Usually niche implies a much smaller demographic than that which is reached by films like AOTC, Harry Potter, LOTR, etc. Once it's big it's called a "genre" film.

Sooo...AOTC opens on a Thursday? Still won't reach $90 million. It'll be bigger than if it had opened on a Wednesday, though...but it's still going to lose that first $30 million day. However, I'll bet at least $90 million over that first Thursday to Sunday period.

-Tom

 

[Terrell]

From that point of view, yes, you can classify those films as niche, meaning a a certain type of film where a certain part of the demographics makes up the majority of it's fans. Yes, that is correct. But not niche in the traditional sense.

As for AOTC hype, if you remember, TPM has just an overwhelming amount of hype. It started 6 months before the film and really got rolling about 4 months before the opening. It was ridiculous. TPM hype had already started by now. You haven't heard much of a whimper, and not anything close to the hype TPM had. AOTC will get it's fair share of hype. I'm just saying the hype for AOTC will be far, far less than TPM.

Also, all three of the major teasers and trailers for TPM were shown on every entertainment and news channel 3 or 4 times a piece. That hasn't happened with AOTC at all. Very few shows about AOTC has been on ET or Access Hollwood. Everyday they had a segment about TPM, or at least every other day.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Tom,
Thank you - you are right. Genre/niche...whatever.
Terrell, I completely agree there is much less overwhelming hype for AOTC in comparison to TPM, but I would say it's at least equivalent to HP...still very much in the public awareness. As for my definition of niche, what you said is what I meant. Genre is a better word anyway. I should have used that. Back to hype. Remember, most people don't separate studio hype from media hype...it's all the same to them. But I agree that AOTC's hype is much more realistic than TPM's. And TPM's hype was not studio-generated either. I don't blame Lucasfilm or Fox at all.
Regarding Titanic: there were no ET stories until it started breaking records. You didn't see Leo, or Kate, or Celine all over the place until about two months after the film opened. You know that book: James Cameron's Titanic? The one that sells for a nickel now because there are 8 trillion copies floating around? I had to SPECIAL-ORDER that (from a Barnes and Nobles) in November of 1997. Stores couldn't be bothered to stock it. My point is: it came out of nowhere.
Remember, we aren't talking quality. I fully expect AOTC to drop bombs all over TPM in terms of pure enjoyment and filmmaking...but it doesn't change the fiscal facts.
Be good ,
Chuck
Edited for grammar, d%$# "regarding" gets me every time!!!

 

[TerryRL]

The amazing thing about "Titanic" was that the only sort of hype it had going for it was the fact that it was the most expensive movie ever made and no one thought it would see a return. Most assumed it would be a BIG disaster, ala "Waterworld" because of it's $225 million cost.
The movie got all the exposure it got AFTER it had been in theaters for a few weeks. By the time it had been #1 for 2 straight months, that's when it became evident that the movie was going to be a huge hit. The movie earned over $20 million in each of it's first 10 weeks in theaters, it was also #1 for 15 weeks. I seriously doubt we'll see another movie perform like that anytime soon.
Tom, you're right about the sequels to the films I mentioned. None of them performed better than $200 million domestically, which made it somewhat easier for their sequels to do what they eventually did. I still believe that AOTC will open much bigger than TPM did, but will likely see a final domestic tally in the area of Terrell's prediction. I also think that AOTC could end up being bigger than TPM was internationally. Opening around the globe on the same day will probably turn out to be one of the smarter things Lucasfilm has done.
The third 'Harry Potter' movie has the advantage of being based on what many think is the best book of the series, but it also has the added advantage of being a summer release. WB moved the third film to a summer 2004 launch because they're opening the third 'Matrix' movie in November of 2003. A summer 'Potter' movie should do exceptionally well for the studio.

 

[Terrell]

Gonna have to disagree Tom. AOTC will hit 100 million by the end of Sunday, unless it has a disappointing opening weekend, which is doubtful.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I first thought that as well, Terrell, but TPM made $100M in 5 days...you are predicting AOTC to do it in 4.
Pros:
1) Tickets cost more, natch!
2) HP almost did it.
Cons:
1) Less interest from casual moviegoers this time around, even if the movie is better.
2) Spider-Man - believe it or not, everyone I know wants to see this, including the ladies It's not going to roll over and die. It will have been in release for 13 days when AOTC hits.
I think AOTC will probably do it. Would $90 million be disappointing to the accountants? I doubt it...only to the fans.
Take care,
Chuck

 

[DanR]

I agree, everyone I know wants to see SpiderMan. Plus, I think it will do well during Star Wars Episode II's opening weekend as it will get the "overflow" of people who can't get tickets for Star Wars due to sell outs.

I'm not going to comment too much on any of the other movies, because frankly, it's hard to call. There could be some huge bombs in the making as it is a crowded year with many sequels and high profile projects. Austin Powers could easily bomb (though I can't wait for it), and an easy surprise could be something like Triple X with Vin Diesel. And don't forget, there is a James Bond movie coming later in the year as well.

 

[Terrell]

Yes Chuck, mainly because TPM opened on a Wednesday, hurting it's weekend take. 68 million is not a lot for a Star Wars film. I think AOTC blows TPM out of the water because of the Thursday release and very little competiton in it's way. Only Spiderman, and it will be in it's 2nd weekend. If the studio was smart, they would have moved Spiderman back at least one week. Too late now.

I think AOTC just destroys everything in it's path the first two weeks, then holds on for a good run, but not as good as TPM had. It seems like every year openings get bigger and bigger. TPM made 68 million in 1999. I expect AOTC to make around 80-85 million in it's opening weekend, plus another 20-25 on Thursday'a opening day. I could be wrong though, we'll have to see.

Spiderman, I see following the same path as something like Mummy Returns. I see it opening huge and then dropping off big time, especially with Star Wars killing it in it's second week. However, I think Spiderman will hold on to make between 225-250 million. Still a big haul by today's standards. Why they chose to open Spiderman 1 weekend before AOTC is beyond me. Mayeb they thought they could compete. They're gonna get bushwhacked, just like Star Trek will get bushwhacked by TTT. I think Spiderman, had they chosen not to try and compete with Star Wars, could make another 75 million more than it's going to do.

 

[John Berggren]

Is this Thursday release day firm? I have a feeling we are going to see it on Wednesday or Friday. Have any other films EVER openned on a Thursday? It just doesn't make sense. I could see going Thursday at Midnight though... .

 

[Terrell]

May 16th on a Thursday is comfirmed, which probably mean Wednesday night at 12AM is probably the first showing. Here's a link to the dates and their countries.
http://www.starwars.com/episode-ii/n...s20011112.html