This year is gonna be FAT! (1 Viewer)

[TerryRL]

Mo' money! Mo' money! Mo' money!

This year will leave the record breaking marks of 2001 in the dust. This is how I think things will shape up in the coming months...

RECORD OPENINGS

2001 saw a jaw-dropping 8 films debut with more than $50 million. A record five of those films opened north of the $60 million mark. This year I'm predicting that no less than 7 films will debut with more than $60 million, a record-shattering 3 of those films will each open with more than $70 million. Those films will be...

"Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones" over $70 mil

"Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets" over $70 mil

"Spider-Man" over $70 mil

"The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" over $60 mil

"Minority Report" over $60 mil

"Men in Black II" over $60 mil

"Austin Powers 3" over $60 mil

Overall, I think we'll see at least 10 films open north of $50 million, establishing a new industry best. Still, in the end, I really don't see anything breaking the record $90.2 million debut of "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone".

$100 MILLION EARNERS

2000 currently holds the single year best mark with 22 releases that earned over $100 million. I think we'll see no less than a record-shattering 25 films passing the century mark this year (not counting "Black Hawk Down", which is considered a 2001 release).

$200 MILLION EARNERS

2001 saw a record 6 films pass the $200 million plateau. This year I think 7 or 8 films will do that this year to establish a new record.

THEATER ADMISSIONS

2001 established a modern-day record of 1.49 billion admissions, I think the 2002 mark will exceed 1.5 billion.

DOMESTIC SALES

2001, again, holds the record with $8.35 billion in domestic ticket sales. Add in the fact that ticket prices will again see a price-hike, and I think 2002 will establish a new record with between $8.5 and $9 billion in domestic ticket sales.

2002 has the potential to be the biggest year ever for the studios, with many mega-movies on tap for release, I think this is going to be a year to remember at the box office.

 

[Terrell]

Star Wars opens on a Thrusday, and hence has a 4 day opening weekend, so to speak. If it opens at a mere 70 million over the initial 4 day period, that would have to be a disappointment. That's less than 20 million per day. I don't necessarily think AOTC will beat TPM at the box office, but for the first four days, I would expect at least 90 million opening over the first four days, at a minimum. I personally would expect 100 million dollars over the first 4 days, which would undoubtedly would be the most fever pitched in it's run in theaters. That would be only 25 million per day. But I expect each day over that 4 day period to have a bigger gross than the next, except Sunday usually comes in a little lower than Saturday. I really think that on Friday and Saturday, it will bring in 60 million dollars over those two days. Maybe I'm being a little ridiculous.

As for TTT and Harry Potter, I have no idea which days they open on, but I'd expect big opening as well. Lately, sequels have been doing bigger than the originals. So it would surprise me at all if all 3 films beat their originals at the box office.

My estimates on domestic totals for each film are:

AOTC - 375 million

Harry Potter - 330 million

TTT - 325 million

As for openings, here's my guess:

AOTC - 98 million

Harry Potter - 95 million

TTT - 85 million

I do think all 3 of these films will open huge, mainly because they don't directly compete against each other.

 

[TerryRL]

I was only taking into account the Friday thru Sunday portion of each films' opening. I also believe that AOTC will become the first film in history to earn $100 million in only 4 days. I'm also of the opinion that AOTC will also have the biggest second weekend mark ever, surpassing the $57.4 million second weekend take of "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone".

AOTC opens on a Thursday, both "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" and "Men in Black II" open on Wednesdays, while "Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets", "Spider-Man", "Minority Report", and "Austin Powers 3" all open on Fridays.

 

[Terrell]

Oh, okay! I didn't get that. If you're just going by the Friday-Sunday weekend period, then I'll revise my estimate.

AOTC- 85 million

Harry Potter - 80 million

TTT - 78 million

However, my total domestic figures stay the same.

As for Spiderman, MIB2, and Minority Report, They won't touch the big 3, but they will all open over 60 million in my opinion, and will all make it to 225 million to 250 million. None of them will make 300 million though. I just don't think they have the staying power of the other 3. Open huge, then stay around and make a bit more money. But that's it.

 

[TerryRL]

I think you're right. "Spider-Man", "Minority Report", "Men in Black II", and "Austin Powers 3" will all open to HUGE numbers, but in the end won't come close to AOTC, 'Chamber of Secrets' or 'The Two Towers'. Those 3 flicks will be the class of 2002, in terms of overall box office that is.

As for your predictions, it would really be something if all 3 of them cracked the $300 million mark. 3 releases cracking $300 mil in the same year has NEVER happened. That would give 2002 yet another box office record if it were to happen.

 

[Robin Warren]

Terrel---I am a bit surprised, you seem to be lowballing the AOTC opening. Its gonna be well over 90 million (IMHO) with a record number of screens and a record push for marketing. It will set a new record for openings. I believe. edit --- i did not read above, sorry terrell. I believe the 90 mil will be on a three day weekend.....it will set all kinds of new records.

 

[Paul_D]

I don't necessarily think AOTC will beat TPM at the box office, but for the first four days, I would expect at least 90 million opening over the first four days, at a minimum.

Phantom Menace made what, 68 or so million in its opening weekend period (including wednesday and thursday I think), and you don't expect ATOC to beat it's grand total, yet you expect it to reach 90 million over in it's first weekend (+ thurs.?). Combined with the fact that all the advance word is saying that AOTC is a much stronger film than Phantom Menace! How can you possibly come to this conclusion?

 

[Terrell]

Well, since the recents trend seems to be sequels out-grossing their originals, I wouldn't be surprised to see all three eclipse the box office totals of their predecessors. But then again, most films haven't made as much as hese films have. So beating them will be difficult, especially with more competition.

Paul, my statement having to do with AOTC not beating TPM had to do with domestic totals, not opening weekend. I most definitely think AOTC will beat TPM for opening weekend. But considering the competition and the huge domestic gross of TPM, I don't think AOTC will have quite the legs to catch it.

 

[Paul_D]

Why on earth not? All signs point to AOTC being far better than Phantom Menace. Why wouldn't it have the legs? Competition? There are plenty of free weeks before the serious competition kicks in, for AOTC to lick the plate clean, and have seconds!

 

[TerryRL]

TPM opened with $64.8 million over the Friday thru Sunday portion of it's opening and a record $105.7 million over it's first 5 days, "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" is the only other film ever to earn $100 million within it's first 5 days of release.

AOTC is going to open much bigger, I'd just be surprised if it had the legs that TPM did. On the flip side of that is the fact that TPM earned $431 million domestically despite being seen as a disappointment by some, it does stand to reason that if AOTC is a big improvement over TPM (which it most likely will be) that it could go on to earn more than it's predecessor. Doubtful, but not impossible.

 

[Terrell]

Hey, I would not be surprised if AOTC beat Titanic, which it won't. But Spiderman I believe opens two weekends before AOTC. And since TPM did a massive 431 million, sometimes I think we forget just how massive that is, I just don't think it will catch it. 431 million is a massive number to catch. I wouldn't be surprised if it beat it, but I'm not expecting. ESB didn't beat Star Wars. And many consider it the best. Although I rate both Star Wars and ESB at a 5 out of 5, and ROTJ 4.5 out of 5.

 

[Seth Paxton]

I think those estimates are almost all too high.

Potter and TTT aren't going to come out stronger than the first films. Austin Powers is going to have trouble getting the same opening unless the adverts start turning people's heads more.

Minority Report might open too lowkey for the huge weekend.

Spider-Man has a good shot at 50-60

AOTC might start as strong as TPM, but I don't see it blasting TPM out of the water or anything.

And early guages on audiences are weaker than last year. Hannibal came out huge, but we've already had 2 bombs and 1 mild failure in the big money popcorn films - Rollerball, Hart's War, Collateral Damage.

So action, effects, stars have all already failed to get the major gate. Characters will be the key, and characters with a strong buzz exceeding any buzz they had on previous films...do we have any of those? See Hannibal and AP2 were both films that grew the cult following and led to big openings, Tomb Raider had a huge cult following too.

But AOTC, Potter, TTT are all following on the recent heels of films that everybody already went to, thus making it tougher to exceed their efforts.

Just think Empire Strikes Back versus Star Wars.

Any of these films might be good, or maybe better than their predecessors, but that doesn't ensure better box office (again, think ESB vs SW).

Spider-Man is the one film that has a solid character, hasn't been seen before, flashy effects, kid friendly. It should open very well. But TTT, AOTC, Potter are most likely to follow the first films' numbers but to a lesser extent.

 

[Terrell]

Well, let's remember that Austin Powers 3 is the third film in the series, and that everyone knows it's going to be the same exact thing the first two were. So it won't do huge numbers, but then again the first two made quite a bit of money, but weren't huge.

As for Spiderman, it will make a lot of money, but somehow I see this film not doing what everyone thinks it will. I say no more than 240 million dollars, which is still a lot of money.

AOTC, TTT, and TCOS will all make at least 300 million. I think AOTC makes the most, maybe 375 million, with the other two following close behind. It wouldn't surprise me to see them all best their predecessors. Mainly because sequels have this habit recently, of beating the originals. That didn't use to happen. But it has lately. As it is, this year will smoke last year at the box office. They're just too many big films being released not too.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I agree mostly with Seth - lower numbers than the previous films. But I think Terrell nailed AOTC. $375M sounds right...and it'll be a major accomplishment for SW. HP will get to $300M with little problem. My beloved TTT will probably net a little under $250M. And of course, Panic Room will hopefully draw in about $75M...but that might be wishful thinking
Take care,
Chuck
Fear the upcoming Panic Room thread...it is coming for joo!

 

[Terrell]

Well, let's look at it this way. TPM more than paid for all three SW prequel films with it's tremendous haul. FOTR and Harry Potter almost paid for their three films. So any money these three films make, which will be a lot, will basically be icing on the cake.

 

[Kami]

Terrell, FOTR did pay for all 3 movies. So far it's grossed about $728 million worldwide.
Budget for all 3 - $270 million
Marketing for all 3 - around $150-$200 million
Total $420 - $470m. Maybe $500m maximum.
Not to mention what merchandising and licensing has paid for as well. It's all profit now.
(then again, I don't know much about this stuff. someone correct me...is there any other major costs involved other than the movie's budget and marketing?)
As for the big movies...I can see TTT matching FOTR's gross, but AOTC won't pass TPM in my opinion. Spiderman should be big but nothing record-breaking, and Austin Powers 3? Well maybe it's just me and every person I know, but I don't see anyone getting excited with it. I say quit the franchise when you're ahead

 

[Terrell]

I can see AOTC matching and beating TPM. I just think it won't because of competition.

 

[Dave Barth]

So far it's grossed about $728 million worldwide.

Budget for all 3 - $270 million

Marketing for all 3 - around $150-$200 million

Total $420 - $470m. Maybe $500m maximum.

You need to subtract the movie theater's share of the box office from the $728 million. New Line would need to have taken home ~70% of the box office to have already broken even. I believe these contracts start out at 80% and fall thereafter; my impression is that 70% is high for a film with legs like this. But perhaps I'm wrong.

I think you've also got to factor in the sizable interest costs incurred by making a $300 million film series and requiring a year or two to get it into theaters.

I certainly have no doubt that in the end even Hollywood's best accountants will have a hard time placing this film, or the series, at a loss or zero profit.

 

[Paul_D]

Panic Room will hopefully draw in about $75M...but that might be wishful thinking

Panic Room's gonna be too good to make money.

 

[Lou Sytsma]

What about Blade2? Early rumblings are that it is a major kickass movie.

It opens March 22nd and should have the action market to itself for awhile.