I guess we are back to that "beating a dead horse" situation: Leno's ratings at 10pm were killing the ratings of the NBC affiliates' 11pm news broadcasts. Had Leno NOT gotten that five nights a week show, but simply left NBC when Conan got Tonight, it might have been a different story. And remember, Jay said several years ago that he would VOLUNTARILY leave the show in 2009. Then he changed his mind.
I would bet that this was a primary factor in the decision. After watching Leno get forced out by unhappy affiliates, I'm sure Conan didn't want to walk into a situation where the affiliates were somewhat hostile from the beginning. Even if he substantially improved the 11 PM hour, there's no way the affiliates would recoup the money they were making when they had all of the ad revenue for the hour to themselves.
The importance of owning the show has less to do with financial benefits than creative benefits. When he walked away from the Tonight Show, Conan had to walk away from all of the sketches and other material he'd developed over the 17 years he spent at NBC. Owning the show means greater creative control while making the show and the ability to bring any created assets with him wherever he goes next.
Jeff Zucker is coming out of this looking good? This comment blows my mind. This entire mess is Jeff Zucker's fault. He came up with the scheme to try and have his cake and eat it too by attempting this phased transition between Jay and Conan. Sure, Jay should have spoken up if he wasn't comfortable with the deal, but in the end the buck stops with Zucker. The right thing would have been to tell Conan that Jay was still a more valuable asset and that if he was no longer comfortable at "Late Night" he is free to pursue other opportunities.
Leno is making more money at The Tonight Show (at least for the next few years) than Conan was doing (for his run of a few months, with all the caveats about that, which shouldn't have to be repeated, but are). But is NBC making more money now overall, than with both Jay and Conan on, since the 10pm show was so much cheaper to produce than five separate weekly dramas? Or was that just a cover because Zucker and his goons were incompetent developing shows? Why bother with the "experiment" in the first place? Because Zucker and his goons were incompetent managing talent?
