The HTF Box Office Prediction Thread! (Updated Weekly!) (1 Viewer)

[Seth Paxton]

$12m.

It's official. I hate you.

 

[Scott Weinberg]

OK, my first week predictions were WAY off, especially for Ice Age. I may have underestimated people going to see the Episode 2 trailer and the distinct lack of any good family flicks. I told you all I wasn't very good at this!
Next week? Hmmm...
Blade 2 - $29-$31 million opening weekend/$110m overall (Never understimate the original's massive video-borne fanbase. I don't know anyone who doesn't like the first Blade, and that includes doctors and old people! )
Sorority Boys - $6m opening/$15 overall (If this movie grosses more than my predicted amount, I'll weep for the death of humanity.)
E.T. - NO IDEA - This one's just too tough! Too many variables! Um.... blind guess here: $32m opening weekend/$90m overall.
I wish I'd thought of starting up a "game" I was a little better at!

 

[John Torrez]

1 BLADE 2 33.10 33.1

2 ICE AGE 31.08 88.3

3 E.T. (RE:20TH ANNIV.) 15.05 15.1

4 SHOWTIME 8.23 26.9

5 RESIDENT EVIL 6.60 28.8

6 WE WERE SOLDIERS 5.80 61.7

7 THE TIME MACHINE 5.20 48.0

8 A BEAUTIFUL MIND 4.26 154.9

9 SORORITY BOYS 4.20 4.2

10 40 DAYS AND 40 NIGHTS 2.72 34.2

Suffice to say, E.T. didn't do as well as expected. Taking in only 15 million and coming in 3rd place. What happened?

 

[Josh_Hill]

E.T. still has all those other films beat cause its got $415mil!

 

[John Torrez]

True, but I'm wondering why the re-release didn't do as well as expected. Were not enough people wanting to see it, was it released at the wrong time?

 

[Patrick Sun]

1. E.T. is on video tape, and for kiddie entertainment, that's sufficient for most households.

2. There wasn't a "must see" buzz with E.T.

3. Reese's Pieces are yucky.

 

[Guy_K]

Well, most people just don't want to go and see ET at the theater. They have the video collecting dust, and they just don't care about seeing a film on the bigscreen because it's not that much of a difference to them. (I think for many, quality doesn't really matter; hence people still owning VHS players). It's also a matter of convenience. Why go through all that work to go to the theater and see ET when you already have it, or have seen it. Lots of people don't want to see a film twice. Others, who are taking their kids to the movies would probably take them to see Ice Age, because it's a new film for the adults and the kids. I think Ice Age might have taken some of ET's audience. I could be wrong though.

 

[Timothy Alexander]

Damn, Blade 2 stole the show this week. Blade 3 here we come!

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

Suffice to say, E.T. didn't do as well as expected. Taking in only 15 million and coming in 3rd place. What happened?

It is important to keep it in perspective when looking at its box office performance to date.

Here are the top re-released films and their gross:

1. Star Wars - $138M

2. The Empire Strikes Back - $68M

3. Return Of The Jedi - $45M

4. The Exorcist - $40M

5. Grease - $28M

6. Wizard of Oz - $15M

Source: Variety

As I said in the E.T. box office thread, it is still too early to write it off. The Easter break, which just started, should give it a nice boost. I think that it is still poised to become one of the top 3 re-released films of all time.

~Edwin

 

[TerryRL]

I think E.T. will earn in the area of $50 million and have a solid run in rerelease. It won't reach the levels that Universal had originally thought it would, but it'll still be a success. I just don't think it carried with it the "must-see" buzz that accompanied the "Star Wars" trilogy reissues in 1997.

Next weekend things get interesting as "Clockstoppers", "Death to Smoochy", "Panic Room", and "The Rookie" all hit theaters. I'd be surprised if "Blade II" repeated as the #1 film, but I think it'll come down between "Death to Smoochy" and "Panic Room" in a battle for the top spot. Then again, depending on how strong it's legs are, "Ice Age" could regain the #1 slot.

Again, E.T. will do well and should see it's total domestic tally rise to about $450 million, enough to make it the third biggest domestic hit in history. "Ice Age" is looking very strong and should have no problem passing the $150 million mark. Next weekend will determine how well "Blade II" will do in the coming weeks, still the opening will prompt New Line to get to work on "Blade III".

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

It wouldn't be fair to compare E.T.'s weekend take to other new release films.

On the bright side, its estimated $15.1M weekend take is already better than the $11.9M it made in its opening weekend back in 1982.

~Edwin

 

[Malcolm R]

I think for a 20-year-old film that's readily available on video, $15 million isn't bad at all. I'm still not sure if I'll see it in the theater or not. I've always been kind of ambivalent about "E.T." It just never gave me the warm fuzzies that seem to have infected so many others. Also, I think the changes/updates in "Star Wars" were much more siginficant and talked about. If anything, there may not have been enough changes in "E.T." to get everyone out to the theaters.
I'm a bit surprised that "Blade II" opened so strongly. I guess I wasn't aware there was such a big following based on the home video success of the first film. The original movie had decent legs, it'll be interesting to see if the sequel has any or if it grabbed everyone in the first week. My theater had it in one of their smaller rooms, and it wasn't selling out.
On the other hand, "Ice Age" sold out all shows at my theater in the second largest room ("E.T." was in the largest...big expectations, I guess), so it's strong hold isn't too surprising.
Next week....I don't think "Death to Smoochy" has any chance of #1. It seems to be a rather odd little movie whose marketing and promotion isn't that good. I doubt it'll even break $10 million for the weekend. "The Rookie" sneaked well last weekend, but I have yet to see any promotion for it. "Panic Room" may be the one new release to challenge for the top spot. I'll predict a 3-way race between "Panic Room," "Ice Age" and "Blade II" (most likely finishing in that order).

 

[Greg_Y]

A question: has any release, outside of the Star Wars trilogy, done a large amount of $ as a re-release? I don't think so. At least, I don't remember any examples. All of the following films have been re-released to theaters and all of them didn't do so great, even though they are popular:

Grease, The Godfather, Wizard of Oz, The Exorcist, and Gone With The Wind.

So I'm not too surprised that E.T. isn't at the top.

 

[Marvin Richardson]

E.T.'s performance this weekend is WELL below what was forcast by Box Office Mojo, to the tune of almost $9.5 million. Of course they were also off on Blade 2, which did $11 million more than predicted. I certainly didn't expect Blade 2 to do that well.

 

[Malcolm R]

The Guru was even farther off. Gitesh had $27M for "E.T." and $18M for "Blade II."

 

[rhett]

That was a pretty hefty fall for the predicted sleeper Resident Evil!

 

[Seth Paxton]

I expect Blade 2 to maintain it's #1 spot next week. Panic Room is still limited appeal Fincher work without the teen fanbase that Blade brings.

Clockstoppers has zero buzz right now.

Blade 2 is no surprise, we've seen it before many times. First film gets the fanbase, sequel gets the big money.

 

[Steve Christou]

Bugger! Bugger! Way off again! I thought ET would rake in a huge amount of dosh, shite, but I was close to the mark with Blade II, only I predicted it would come in 2nd, and I Sage made more than I expected in its 2nd weekend.

Looks like Resident Evil is decomposing faster than I thought.