The HTF Box Office Prediction Thread! (Updated Weekly!)

Discussion in 'Archived Threads 2001-2004' started by Scott Weinberg, Mar 11, 2002.

  1. Scott Weinberg

    Scott Weinberg Lead Actor

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    I thought it would be kind of fun to devote a thread to our Box Office predictions. Each Monday I'll post that week's new movies, and we can offer our predictions on which movie will make how much. I'm not particularly good at this, but it could be a hoot.
    I'm hoping this thread will offer more than just predictions, as I find that following the current box-office numbers is absolutely fascinating. (I'm focusing mainly on "wide releases" although you should feel free to offer your thoughts on any foreign or indie flicks that are also opening.)
    Opening this Friday are three rather colorful-looking movies:
    Ice Age
    Resident Evil
    Showtime
    Feel free to post your prognostications for each film's opening weekend, in addition to how much you think each movie will make overall. Here are mine:
    Ice Age - $18m Opening Weekend / $80m overall
    Showtime - $14m / $90m
    Resident Evil - $12m / $60m
    Good-natured ribbing is allowed, but let's not cruelly MOCK someone if they predict Rollerball to somehow make $140m! [​IMG]
    (I hope this thread can stay in the Movies section, as it's meant to be an ongoing discussion and not merely a collection of votes!)
     
  2. Chris Harvey

    Chris Harvey Second Unit

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    Excellent idea! I've been bummed about not participating in box-office predictions ever since Mr. Showbiz got shut down.

    So, this weekend:

    Ice Age -- $23 million

    Showtime -- 13 million

    Resident Evil -- $12 million
     
  3. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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    Scott,

    If besides the predictions, there isn't significant film discussion then this thread is bound for Polls.

    Crawdaddy
     
  4. Bill J

    Bill J Producer

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    Ice Age- $23 million

    Showtime- $10 million

    Resident Evil- $8 million
     
  5. Ryan L B

    Ryan L B Supporting Actor

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    I expect Ice Age to do around $30 or $40 million. (This is coming form the same person who thought that Rollerball would actually be a hit[​IMG]
     
  6. Steve Christou

    Steve Christou Long Member

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  7. Seth Paxton

    Seth Paxton Lead Actor

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    Ice Age -- $23 million
    Showtime -- 13 million
    Resident Evil -- $12 million
    I'll second that guess all the way.
    I think Ice Age can hit $105m, Resident Evil $30m, Showtime $85m (if it is in the Meet the Parents, Bowfinger, Shrek level of quality).
    Don't worry Scott, after you are wrong I'll be in the thread "discussing" what an idiot you were. [​IMG] That should keep it in Movies (or get it closed [​IMG]).
     
  8. Thi Them

    Thi Them Producer

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    Does the person who gets the closest prediction win a prize like pants in the past?

    Resident Evil: $30 million

    Ice Age: $20 million

    Showtime: $8 million

    I don't think Ice Age will do as well as everyone else thinks because there has already been 3 CGI animated movies within the past year.

    ~T
     
  9. Dave_P.

    Dave_P. Supporting Actor

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    Ice Age: $25m

    Showtime: $20m

    Resident Evil: $12m
     
  10. Patrick Sun

    Patrick Sun Moderator
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    Ice Age: $28m

    Showtime: $14m

    Resident Evil: $9m
     
  11. Chuck Mayer

    Chuck Mayer Lead Actor

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    Ice Age: $20M, broadest appeal, SW trailer should be good for an extra M or two

    Showtime: $14M, looks funny, but not so funny it will win the weekend

    Resident Evil: $11M, niche film, not enough adverts for the average moviegoer, horror and game fans'll show up

    Take care,

    Chuck
     
  12. Iain Jackson

    Iain Jackson Second Unit

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    Ok, I don't really know much about Ice Age and Showtime, but I'll take some wild guesses...

    Ice Age - $22M/$70M overall

    Resident Evil - $13M/$35M overall (this one's going to bomb!)

    Showtime - $9M/$40M overall
     
  13. Alex Spindler

    Alex Spindler Producer

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    Well, as a real neophyte to box office predictions, I think:

    Ice Age - $25mil / 125 mil - I think this one is going to keep running for some time. I haven't been impacted by the ad machine for this one as much as I had expected when I saw the preview last year, but I still think it will prove to be popular. I think we're going to see a 65-70% rotten tomatoes score on this one.

    Resident Evil - $12 mil / 45 mil - I can't see this one behaving any differently from the all of Anderson's previous movies. Interesting premise (albeit taken from a game) that gets somewhat mishandled and gets mediocre word of mouth. I think it will remain in theaters until the end of April to squeeze out the last few drops. I'm thinking a 15-30% rotten tomatoes on this one.

    Showtime - $12 mil / 50 mil - A curiosity at best, and will probably not be able to draw on positive critical response. Maybe a 45% RT score.

    Great thread. If this does go to polls, please make it sticky. Else it gets drowned by the numerous DVD collection tournaments.
     
  14. Josh_Hill

    Josh_Hill Screenwriter

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    Ice Age- $30+

    Resident Evil- $20+
     
  15. Adam_S

    Adam_S Producer

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    I think Ice Age will do very well, it's the first potential blockbuster being released this year (but will be hampered by ET like Monsters was by Harry Potter). I see Ice Age doing about 27 million this weekend plus or minus two ro three million, and a total cum around 115 million.

    Resident Evil has a built in video game base, but I haven't seen much advertisement for it or heard much buzz on it, so if it is FUN to watch and doesn't insult the viewer like so many other video game movies it could be something of a sleeper. I see it doing about 12 million this weekend with low rolloffs over the next several weeks, with an ultimate cum in the 60-80 million range.

    Showtime I hadn't even heard of until two weeks ago, but have heard many advertisements in the past two weeks, i think the ad machine will result in a strong 15 million opening, but with possibly large rolloffs and a total cum of 40-55 million.

    to recap, with ranges of where I think they will hit:

    Ice Age - 24 to 30 million; total - 105 to 125 million

    Resident Evil - 10 to 14 million; total - 60 to 80 million

    Showtime - 12 to 18 million; total - 40 to 55 million

    Adam
     
  16. Scott Weinberg

    Scott Weinberg Lead Actor

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    After seeing Showtime, I'm apt to lower my B.O. predictions for it! [​IMG]
    It's a mess of a movie, although I enjoyed it in a "guilty pleasure" sorta way. I'm quite curious to see how this one does domestically.
     
  17. Kelley_B

    Kelley_B Cinematographer

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    Ice Age - $26.5 Million

    Resident Evil - $17 Million

    Showtime - $10 Million

    I think Ice Age will do some good numbers this weekend as there hasn't been a kid movie in a while.
     
  18. Jason Harbaugh

    Jason Harbaugh Cinematographer

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    Ice Age: $29 million/$120 million (Shortest running time, lots of showings, no competition)

    Showtime: $15 million/$70 million

    Resident Evil: $13 million/$35 million
     
  19. Bill Harris

    Bill Harris Stunt Coordinator

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    Ice Age = 25 mill

    Resident Evil = 20 mill

    Showtime = 15
     
  20. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    Looks like a lot of you are way low on Ice Age. Your weekend grosses were mostly met on Friday. [​IMG]
     

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