The HD-DVD Influence (1 Viewer)

[Kevin_M_M]

I know HD-DVD is still years away but I can't help starting to feel more and more influenced by its lengthening shadow. My two fears:

1. I will end of re-buying every DVD I own in HD-DVD because I'm an addict and won't be able to pass it up.

2. What about the next thing? Super HD-DVD or Virtual DVD or who knows what? Am I doomed to repeat this vicious cycle and never save a dime?

Just as an example, I decided not to buy T2: EE as a: I have the T2: UE and b: I don't want to buy a movie again for a better transfer when I know I'll buy the HD-DVD of T2 for sure.

How do you all deal with this? Do you find it influencing your buying? Will EBAY actually be a way to get some of your money back when HD-DVD begins to surface?

Just trying to justify things to both myself and, eventually when HD-DVD appears, to my girlfriend.

 

[Alex Spindler]

Kevin, I would suspect that the concerns that you have are typical of most forward thinking collectors. Even moreso than in the past, future technologies on the horizon have the potential of forcing a rebuy. VHS collectors had the same concern when LDs came out. And LD collector's proably felt it as DVDs became more solid.

There seems to always be a new format on the horizon that will compel many to rebuy things they have. Some would take a hard line stance and not buy anything in the current format. The downside being that they would be preventing themselves from enjoying the movies on the current format.

Others would buy heavily in the new format and then they may be reluctant to buy the new format. They would look at their huge original library and may only buy the standout titles that take the most advantage the new one can provide. Their other hope is to sell those titles, although they will go for a low price because everyone will be selling copies by then.


I would say the issue is easier for you because you already have the UE. But if you didn't, you'd have to ask if having a WM9 HD now and possibly rebuying in the future is better than not having T2 until it is available on a future HD format.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

You'll always be able to pass off older versions of your movies on ebay or to friends. Only the adicts like us will be rushing out the gates to fork over $$$ for new HD versions of titles we already own.

Fear not.

-dave

 

[Garrett Lundy]

Considering the fact that i do not believe there is a superior image to HD-DVD's suspected 1920*1080 resolution (Most computer monitors don't even exceed this), I wouldn't be suprised if "Super-Definition TV" is several decades away.

Heck, it'll probably be over a decade before we get full 1920 by 1080 resolution on any monititor device (Except very pricey projectors).

 

[Charlie Essmeier]

I've dealt with this by sticking with laserdisc, which I've had for a decade, and avoiding DVD as much as possible. I own a handful, but didn't even buy a player until last fall.

At the time DVD was introduced, it was already known that HDTV would hit the market the following year. Anyone could have seen that DVD's days were numbered from the word go. I wondered, even then, why the industry wasn't working on HD laserdiscs instead. There was no chance, even from its inception, that DVD would have the 20+ year lifespan that laserdisc had.

Don't invest heavily in DVD. That's your answer.

Charlie

 

[DeeF]

Heck, it'll probably be over a decade before we get full 1920 by 1080 resolution on any monititor device (Except very pricey projectors).

Not sure what you mean by this.

Apple HD Cinema Display has a resolution of 1920 x 1200 now.

 

[Mark Zimmer]

I'm wondering exactly how much better many of these HD-DVDs will be, really. For example, Columbia does HD transfers of their films and then use that to create DVDs. But often the transfers are taken from unrestored and beaten up masters (e.g., the Three Stooges shorts) that aren't going to look good in HD--in fact the problems with the masters are probably going to be emphasized. This is obviously less of a concern for newer films, but it seems as if for older catalog material we're not likely to see much improvement in the leap from DVD to HD-DVD. Somehow I'll wager that Artisan's HD-DVD of The Quiet Man will still be repulsive to look at.... :p

 

[Ed St. Clair]

Heck, it'll probably be over a decade before we get full 1920 by 1080 resolution on any monititor device (Except very pricey projectors).

Toshiba LCoS is 1200p.
The 57" Cinema Series was $9000. The 'new' (also 1200p) non-Cinema Series 57" will be $5000. The 65" Cinema Series will be $9000.
Other companies three panel LCoS, will also be released this year.
1200p, is here!

 

[RobertR]

I wondered, even then, why the industry wasn't working on HD laserdiscs instead.

The industry introduced HD laserdiscs (MUSE format), and they didn't sell. The same thing is happening to DVHS.

The economic reality is that practically everyone wants the DVD form factor, and DVD is selling far too well to rush introduction of the HD format. Most aren't willing to be holdouts for years and years waiting for the next thing. I also find it interesting that the "I'll wait until HD because it's almost here and the old format has a limited lifetime" argument put forth by LD diehards didn't keep them from trying to eke out a few more months for LD's lifetime by buying as many LDs as they could when those were still available.

 

[Bruce Hedtke]

I will end of re-buying every DVD I own in HD-DVD because I'm an addict and won't be able to pass it up.

Perhaps, but if you go through your collection, undoubtedly, you'll come across any number of titles that you wouldn't buy again if for no other reason than you just don't watch it enough to justify owning it. But, of course, when HD-DVD does hit, any title will do because the software side of it will be much like DVD...sporatic at first. DVD is a runaway success but HD-DVD still has alot of questions as to how quickly it will catch on and how wide the acceptance will be. If it doesn't grow much beyond a niche market, getting catalogue titles to market might be long waits.

Bruce

 

[Chris Purvis]

resolutions higher than 1920x1080 might be available on high end displays, but until there is a broadcast standard resolution higher than that I don't think we need to worry about a super HD-DVD format above and beyond the coming one (whatever it ends up being). And how many years did it take to get rid of NTSC? I think we will have a long wait before standards beyond the current HDTV standard come around.

 

[Rodney]

While I am not stopping my purchasing of DVD's (not by a long shot!), I did decide to hold off purchasing T2 EE, since I already own UE. I held off specifically to wait for HD-DVD. I am trying to curb my double dipping as much as possible.

 

[Richard Paul]

For displays of the future the highest resolution I imagine that would be needed is 2160p. That does not mean all information would be at that resolution with most of it instead being at either 720p or 1080p. One advantage of 2160p would be the scaling of 720p being picture perfect since it's a integer increase in resolution (this includes 1080p).

Let's not forget poor color encoding with only 256 colors for each of the RGB components. The next generation of color encoding should be done in the linear light domain which requires 11 bits to equal 8 bit non-linear RGB or 3 additional bits per RGB component. To acheive better than film color which is really what should be tried for would require 24 bits for EACH linear RGB component or 72-bit linear RGB (though 48-bit linear RGB would be much better than current studio video). It would require 3 times as much space to record 72-bit linear RGB video rather than 24-bit RGB.

Finally the rate of only 30 fps for 1080p is low since to really get smooth motion you would want at least 60fps. But to maintain compatiblity with old 24 fps theaters they should do 120 fps which if you took every 5th frame could do 24fps. Though 60 fps is considered pretty smooth the human eye can see the difference at frame rates up to around 90 fps so while dreaming why not do 120fps? So my idea of a perfect video format would be capable of 2160p, 72-bit linear RGB, with a frame rate of 120fps. This would require only 48 times more data than HDTV .

In all honesty most people will be content with 1080p at 30fps for a good while. If pre-recorded Blu-Ray can do 1080p I could see it lasting for a very long time (with very long being 15-20).

 

[DeanWG]

IMO, even within the next two years, HD-DVD will have a tough road to gain acceptance. Yes, HDTV will be more widespread and common, and obviously cheaper.

But what DVD had, to the average person, was an actual tangible reason to convince them to upgrade. The jump from VHS to DVD is obviously a large one. Just the fact that it was a leap from analog to digital was enough to gain ANYONE's attention. More importantly, it was convient, and it was affordable.

I don't think the same will hold true for the next step. Die-hard HT people like all of us will see the benefit, but we don't carve new trends in technology, the mainstream audience does.

HD-DVD will most definately have its place for recent and future films, but as was mentioned in other threads . . . how much better can they EVER make Caddyshack look? What has been filmed has been filmed, and for some things, adding pixels and lines of resolution isn't going to make it look any better. To be honest, I've seen some pre-HD stuff that has been converted for HD broadcasts, and while most of it looks great, some of it has a touch of unrealistic feel to it.

I just don't see how the average person is going to shell out for an entire new library of titles and new hardware to run it, when they'll just be entering the new era of widescreen TVs and anamorphic enhancement, and perceivably better progressive displays as well. So, theoretically, even standard DVDs could look better in two years than they do now, narrowing the gap even further for the average person to upgrade.

 

[GarySchrock]

Personally, I wouldn't be concerned about HD-DVD being an issue for quite some time. I've seen people on this forum predict that it'll rapidly overtake DVD, but quite frankly, I think they're overly optimistic. While prices keep coming down on HD stuff, it's still pretty expensive. One reason I feel DVD is gaining rapidly is that it's pretty cheap to get a significant upgrade in video quality. Hell, you can get a decent DVD player for $100, and even the cheap $50 ones aren't too bad. But that step from being able to play standard dvd's to HD stuff is a mighty big one. You have to shell out a fair amount of cash to get a decent HD TV, and then shell out some more for a HD tuner. And heck, there's some areas of the country where you can't even get all the networks in digital yet! And what about those people that really don't feel they need a huge tv in their home? There aren't a whole lot of smaller (say, 27" and down) HD tv's, and I know quite a few people who feel that's an entirely adequate sized tv.

Now, I'd say the group represented by this forum would probably be on the leading edge of early adoption of a new standard (although I probably won't be, I don't have the bottomless budget some people here seem to), but I'd definitely say that's not representative of the general population. Personally, I'd be real suprised if 10 years from now HD-DVD has the same share that DVD has now. (I'm pessimistic enough to believe that in 10 years, there still won't be a large enough market share of HDTV's for broadcasters to turn off analog signals, regardless of what the rules might say).

 

[Brent M]

Like many others, I have a hard time believing that HD-DVD(whenever it's finally introduced) will dominate the consumer electronics market the way current DVD has. In the past 6 years, DVD has gone from a new format with only a few good titles available to the biggest thing in the consumer electronics market. Almost every big movie ever made has been or will soon be released on DVD(with the exception of the original Star Wars Trilogy). It will be a very tough sell to convince all of the people that have just recently converted from VHS to DVD that HD-DVD is a "must have" format that they should upgrade to. The average consumer is more than happy with current DVD technology and will not shell out all the money necessary to buy an expensive new player and replace their current library of discs. Most consumers are only using low to mid-priced players and regular, non-digital TVs so the conversion from DVD to HD-DVD would not benefit them in any way. The only people who will see the true benefits from HD-DVD and are eager for the format to be introduced are those with large screen HDTVs or rear projection set-ups and those people only account for a very small share of the market. I just recently purchased a new 42" Panasonic plasma display and a Pioneer Elite DV-47Ai DVD player and personally I can't see how HD-DVD could look much better than some current DVD releases look on my system. For example, DVDs like Attack of the Clones, Terminator 2 EE, Lord of the Rings EE, Charlie's Angels Superbit, Pearl Harbor, X-Men 1.5, XXX Superbit, Blade II, The Fast and the Furious, Black Hawk Down, Training Day, Austin Powers: Goldmember, Cast Away, Red Dragon and several other discs I own look so good on DVD that it's hard to imagine them looking much better on a HD-DVD release. I know there would be an improvement, but would it be enough to get people to shell out all the money necessary to upgrade their current DVD libraries? I just recently finished a 4 year process of replacing all my VHS titles with DVD and there is a very small chance that I will repeat that process any time in the near future. I'm more than happy with the picture and sound quality the current DVD format offers and I think most people feel the same way. Don't get me wrong, I love new technology as much as the next guy, but it reaches a point where the room for improvement is not enough to justify the costs associated with upgrading a particular piece of electronics. In a few years, my opinion on this might be completely different, but right now I think that if HD-DVD is rolled out in the next 2 or 3 years it will be DOA just like DVD-Audio, D-VHS and all of the other failed electronics formats that have come before it because the interest of the masses just will not be there. If the electronics companies and the movie studios are smart, they will squeeze every last penny they can out of DVD while it is still the flavor of the moment and wait at least 5 years before introducing a new format. "That just my opinion, I could be wrong".

 

[Paul McElligott]

The biggest obstacle to the acceptance of HD-DVD is the success of DVD. The marketplace doesn't tolerate a new mass-market format very often when the dominant format is good enough for most people.

CD has been around for 20 years now and shows no sign of being pushed aside by newer formats.

Also, of course, if HD-DVD is not even playable on existing 4:3 NTSC sets, that will sharply constrain the potential market penetration of the format for several years. DVD is playable on both standard and HD sets and, despite what some "PQ snobs" say, looks damn good on both.

DVD is only 5-6 years old. It'll probably be another 10-15 years before the mass market is ready for a replacement format.

 

[Dan Kaplan]

There was no chance, even from its inception, that DVD would have the 20+ year lifespan that laserdisc had.

Huh? 6 years of record breaking sales compared to 20 (?) years of mediocrity... Yep, no comparison at all.

Dan

 

[Ed St. Clair]

I've seen people on this forum predict that it'll rapidly overtake DVD

I agree, HD-DVD is a niche market, on the scale of HiRez music (DVD-A & SACD), for quite some time.

 

[Richard Stammer]

I have been thinking about this issue as well and worrying about whether I will feel the need to replace our DVD collection when HDTV hits in force. I am no longer as concerned. Recently, two events have given me new appreciation for our DVD collection, as well as new appreciation for the HDTV experience.

In November, 2002 we upgraded our home theater to include the 50" Sony Grand WEGA LCD rear projection display. Previously, we had been watching our movies on a 31" direct-view Mit. After much tweaking of the Sony with advice from the gurus on the AVS Forum, we are re-enjoying our DVD collection in wonderfull glorious 480p. I have a perpetual grin on my face all the time while watching the amazing picture on this flat panel display.

At rougly the same time as this upgrade, Comcast cable locally began offering HDTV broadcasts on a limited number of channels, including ABC, CBS, Showtime and HBO. I have certainly enjoyed this experience and can attest to how wonderful HDTV looks in 720p.

The other week, Showtime was showing THE FIFTH ELEMENT and I was marvelling at how good it looked. For an experiment, I grapped the DVD, cued it up to match the HDTV broadcast exactly, and began an A-B comparison by switching back and forth between the inputs. Initially, I thought that the DVD would be blown away. It wasn't. Now I am a very critical viewer, but I was hard-pressed to see a difference. Yes, it was there. The DVD was "slightly" grainier looking and maybe the colors were not so luminent. HDTV did have a more 3D quality. But the DVD was very close to the HDTV experience and not the blow-out I expected. As a caveat, I am sure that the differences would be more obvious as you increased the size of the disply, particularly if using a big 8-foot front-projection display.

The point I'm making is that with my current equipment, and with more improvements in display hardware yet to come, I can now see myself living with our current DVD collection for a long time. We'll have HDTV-DVD I'm sure. But I don't think that it will be worth replacing the entire collection.