Survivor Panama Exile Island season 12 (merged) (2 Viewers)

[Stephen_L]

Matt, I agree. Terry is not only individually strong as a player but worked hard for his seriously outnumbered team. He could have held onto the idol in secret and saved it for his own security, but he put it on the line to try to help his team.

 

[RAF]

But did he really? I thought that the plan was for the ex-LaMina members to all vote for the same ex-Casaya member (in this case, Aras) and then use the immunity idol to save their member (Austin) when he was voted off. What ever happened to that scheme? I was quite surprised when this didn't occur. I was also surpised that if the presence of the idol was known by all that "Casaya" didn't do the logical thing and give 3 votes to Austin and 3 votes to Sally. That way, if the idol "card" was played it would assure that a LaMina member was going home (I think, unless there are different tie-breaker rules). And once LaMina was down to 2 members it would be clear sailing for Casaya to the final three. As it turned out, Casaya lucked out anyway when Austin went without immunity.

On this morning's Early Show Austin explained that there was a lot of clever editing on what actually transpired. Evidently he (Austin) created a "fake" immunity idol and gave everyone the impression that he would use it if he was voted out. If this is true, then I suspect the LaMina members might have been a little ticked off at Austin and left him swinging in the breeze. Also, Terry probably realized that by winning so many challenges that it is going to be imperative for him to use the idol to save himself at some point before the final three.

To me, last night's show was one of the more interesting strategical ones in quite some time.

 

[Brad Porter]

After the conclusion of the tribal council last night I figured that there is already a plan in place to do exactly that. Danielle, Courtney, and Cirie can take either Bruce or Sally at the final seven stage and make it all the way to the final four (barring immunity interference at the final five - which just results in the elimination of Bruce or Sally). There's no earthly reason why any of them would not switch it up when seven are left, so that's why I think Danielle and Bruce did not switch allegiances. Now it's up to Aras and Shane to figure this out and make some move at the tribal council of 8 to prevent this from happening. Since they don't really need 6 players to get rid of the rest of La Mina, they should just team up with Terry and Sally to eliminate Cirie. They've just been keeping her around as an easy competitor and no one really has a strong alliance with her. Of course they have to find the numbers to do it again at the final six stage...

Brad

 

[Patrick_S]

That's not what happened. He did create a fake idol and made certain that Danielle saw him "find" it and put it in his bag. He was suppose to then tell her and the others that he found it but he didn't follow through with that part of the plan.

The editing comment concerned the fact that Danielle had told them before they went to Tribal that she was not coming over to their side so Austin knew he was going home that night.

On a side note I wouldn't be surprised if the women group together soon and form a new alliance. Of course they better do it soon before Sally gets voted out.

 

[Stephen_L]

I thought Terry might give the idol to Austin, but nowhere in the show did it show Terry promising the idol to anyone other than Danielle if she would turn. At this point sacrificing the idol to knock out one of the majority tribe accomplishes nothing for Terry or his team. They would still be in the minority. Now Terry still has the idol to use as a bargaining chip for his team or to protect himself.

 

[AnthonyC]

Terry's strategy is to win the ICs, plain and simple. He does not realize how you need to have allies to stay alive in this game. He reminds me of Rupert: arrogant, physically strong, with no real mental game.

 

[Stephen_L]

Anthony, normally I might agree, but in Survivoralau Tom won almost solely due to his domination of immunity challenges (he won 5 of the last 7). He survived with a huge target on his back the entire game. Terry may try the same tactic, has achieved the loyalty of the other men in LaMina, and may yet make allies in the merged tribe. I think its telling that Austin seemed loyal to Terry and LaMina even after being voted off. That bodes well for Terry early in the jury. He just needs to be careful not to come off as too cocky or imperious. That will alienate future jury members.

Terry is also not solely interested in his personal survival. His offer of the idol to Danielle to flip was in LaMina's interest and not just his own. That's why I think he earned some points with his fellow LaMina tribemates.

 

[Charlie Campisi]

I assumed that Terry's plan failed because they couldn't get Bruce or Danielle to flip. Without both of them, they would have been hanging in the breeze and the next TC, and no longer had the hidden idol. Once the plan failed, it was every La Mina for himself/herself. They can keep trying to get converts from Casaya.

 

[Alex S]

I think Terry is counting on winning the immunity challenges and keeping the idol in case he looses one.

I hope he can do it but it's not going to be easy.

 

[MikeM]

With the rules being a bit clearer now on how the idol can be used, it's actually dumb for Terry to keep it a secret that he has the idol. I assumed from the start that if you were voted out but had the idol, you would bring it to Jeff and there would be a re-vote. Not so. If they pick the person with the highest number of votes who doesn't have the idol, then its in Terry's best interest to shout to everyone that he has the idol. It's almost like Terry saying, "Shane or Aras, if you get everyone to vote for me, I'll vote for you, and since I have the idol, you're going home."

That means that if they know he has the idol, even if he doesn't win the immunity challenges, Shane or Aras have to be seriously nervous to vote for him at all. By making it public, it could save him from being voted off, *and* he doesn't even have to use it. That idol is big, folks.

 

[Andy_Bu]

They never said on the show but did Danielle not accept the idol in part because she was afraid Bruce would not swing over?

If Bruce was going to swing over, I am shocked she did not make the switch right then. I think should would have been in better position with numbers and the immunity idol, than with numbers and no immunity idol.

Shane and Aras are going to do what ever they can to carry Charie along because she posses no threat and then take each other to the final. Danielle has to know she is in a bad position with those 6 with out the protection of the idol.

Andy

 

[Chris Moe]

This is turning out to be a great season.

They need to have the pecking order challenge where it shows the majority who sits where in their alliance. That challenge always mixes things up.

 

[Patrick Sun]

Now, it would have been ballsy as hell had Terry given his immunity necklace to Austin, and the idol to Sally, and try to bluff Casaya into voting for Sally, which would have resulted in Aras being booted (had the Casayans gotten confused and just voted to boot off Sally by default).

 

[Joseph S]

...but Terry clearly isn't that smart. Without Dan or Nick on that jury he's cooked. He's made zero effort to show he's even worth voting for. He'll probably let Sally take a hike next week even if he wins immunity. He's been playing for at best second place since long before the merge. Aras seems to be the only one thinking about the entire game with Cirie playing only the mental game. He's not even a target with Shane, Terry, and Sally higher up list of potential bootees and it certainly didn't look like he was on the stretcher.

 

[Shayne Lebrun]

Only to possibly wind up facing a jury full of the people she just betrayed.

 

[Patrick Sun]

4/13/06

Terry's a selfish bastich! There goes more semi-eye-candy.

 

[AnthonyC]

Yeah, I've had it with Terry. I'd even rather see Courtney or Danielle win at this point; Terry just bugs me. He's like Rupert only with a less annoying voice.

Tom > Terry

 

[Andy_Bu]

What possible advantage to Terry would have been to give up the idol tonight? Zero.

This was not a selfish move, it was the only move.

That being said Terry may be making a mistake in rubbing everyone nose in his dominance. He should have played a self deprecating role, almost apologetic in that he needs to win to stay alive.

Unless of course he is doing this because he figures he can get to the final 4 and by then they may want to take him to the final since they feel everyone will not vote for him because of his actions.

Andy

 

[Lucia Duran]

I honestly don't think Terry will win, because he has put himself in such a bad position by being the strongest and then making sure people know he is going to beat them.

Bad move Terry. You probably do deserve the money being a great Survivor player, but based on how people view you, you won't get it.

No one is going to flip sides at this point either because they have the numbers and if Terry does infact lose an immunity challenge they force him to use the idol and then he has no choice but to try and win immunity each time.

 

[Brad Porter]

The numbers to do what? Once Terry is gone they have to cannibalize Casaya. Ask Aras if he thinks he has a better strategy than Terry's plan of winning all the immunities to keep him in the game once it gets to 6. Ask Shane how long he'll survive once Aras is gone. Ask Bruce who he thinks will be gone first from the final four. If any of them want to get to the final immunity challenge then they will have to win at least two immunity challenges along the way.

If Terry wins immunity again then Aras will likely be eliminated by his own tribe (based on the camp talk they've shown us). His only hope is to get Terry, Shane, and Bruce's votes to eliminate one of the ladies. It will be difficult to sway Bruce without at least giving him the idol because he gains nothing by switching over to compete against a tougher final four. And Terry has no reason to give the idol away at this point. He'd gladly see Aras eliminated. Bad news for Aras (and then Shane) if Terry wins immunity.

If Terry doesn't win immunity then he will receive the most votes, use the idol, and eliminate the person with the second most votes. Terry can only cast one vote. Any two Casaya members can cast votes different from their tribe and determine who is really going home with four votes remaining to be cast against Terry. Therefore Aras and Shane can decide who goes home from Casaya no matter who Terry votes for (as long as nobody else tries the same thing). But once again, Terry has no reason to keep them around... so he won't help them figure out this strategy.

Aras and Shane have to either win immunities or change up the alliances now if they really want to have a chance of winning this thing. Eliminating Terry shouldn't be their only concern.

After typing all that, I expect that Terry's use of the idol won't be nearly as impactful to the outcome of the game as it will be when the next person who goes to Exile Island brings it back with them. Therefore, I'd keep sending Cirie out there since she's the least likely to win the final immunity challenge.

Brad