with almost 1,700 titles in the library, I still have a long way to go before my personal collection is fairly complete. I buy 10 a week....and the fat lady is still sleeping. when is it we can expect Seeds Of Sin on any HD format? those films and many others will be a long, long time in coming...if ever. dvd remains essential for me....but good luck in your wait.
Hardware will be expensive, but I would not be surprised if the prices for either HD format is closer to LD prices which were $40 and up. This is another factor that will slow acceptance.
There was a New York Times article within the last year where they mentioned that researchers at a major company were already working on the next generation of HD-DVD.
That is the kiss of death for the approaching formats right there! People want things better but they also want something that will last a while.
I think HD DVD will be to DVD like Laserdisc was to VHS.
The people who can afford it, will want to have it the day it comes out and will feel high and mighty about it. The rest of us will be more than happy to keep collecting wonderful dvds and continue do so because it has not even come close to being past it's prime...DVD hasn't even hit its middle age yet.
I predict between 1 and 5% of the market will adopt HD DVD in the first 5 years of it's existence. The rest of the population will be asking "why is there a new format, didn't we just get DVD?"
I personally have sold all but my very favorite dvd's over the last 6 months. I am not buying another dvd unless it is HD. Once i do invest in high def dvd's i will probably never re-buy them again. This is crazy. Paid over 5k for all the dvd's i sold for less than 2k. If someday there is an even better format than HD DVD, i will not invest in it. Hell current dvd's picture quality is already great, and HD DVD is even better and good enough for me.
With high-definition cable-on-demand OAR 8.1 audio a looming inevitability, what oh what will become of my dvd INVESTMENT! Ah... cable-on-demand, with no need to ever "upgrade" because the on-line version is always the latest and greatest.
That does it! I'm off to eBay. My dvd's will get listed immediately after my vinyl record collection and OS/2 manuals. I'm keeping the betamax, just because.
Most of the arguments against waiting for HD DVD seem to be "it will be a niche market for a few years." My response is "who cares?" It didn't stop me from buying a laserdisk player, it didn't stop me from getting a DVD player fairly early in the game (despite the fears of an upcoming "format war" with DiVX) and it won't stop me from getting an HD DVD player.
People forget that the success of DVD during the first few years was anything but certain either, and many studios were dead set against it, but that didn't stop us DVD owners from enjoying many fine movies. And the claims of "DVD is just fine, so I see no need to upgrade" remind me of the same sentiments of LaserDisk proponents back then.
However, all that said, I'm not a obsessive early adopter. I'll wait until there are some titles I want and I can make an educated guess about where the market is going before I plunge in. I predict I'll get a player sometime in 2006.
I think what posters are saying is that yes it will be a niche market and therefor the people who want ot be a part of that niche, will do so and the rest (the majority of the general public) will stay with DVD.
In all fairness, I heard people tell me the same thing regarding certain vinyl albums "never making it to CD" and certain VHS tapes and LD's "never making it to DVD". Well, they all did - and pretty fast!
HD-DVD will not be like laserdisc. Why? Because people are buying HDTV's. And they are buying more and more. They will go for HD-DVD because they just spent $1500+ on a television set and they want to get their money's worth. As long as players can be had for less than $300, HD-DVD is in business.
Wrong. One, most consumers think that dvd itself is meant for HDTV, so there is one downfall. Two, HD-DVD players will definitely not be $300 dollars or less, that is a dream. and Three, most consumers will be angry rather than happy when they are told that they have to replace their movies again, after they thought that DVD is the best format.
I bought my first dvd in '97, and there are still so many dvds that either have to be made in the first place, or that have to be remade because the first one stunk.
And it will probably be more expensive for a small studio, like Anchor Bay, to buy the time or equipment to remake the movies that have taken them so long to get out now, just to have a limited market again.
DVD is, and will be the format for the next 5 to 10 years.
Look, I'm not trying to put down or slam people that want HD-DVD, but the fact is, I know a lot...and I mean A LOT of people are only just getting into dvd right now (2004) because players are under a $100 bucks.
So the way I look at it, unless and HD-DVD player or Blu Ray player is backwards compatible with current dvd's so the millions of J6P dvd lovers can still enjoy what they have already spent their hard earned money on, HD DVD is gonna be spinning it's tires when the gun shot goes off.