splitting 10's at a blackjack table (1 Viewer)

[Ryan Peter]

Sorry, door number 3 had a bucket full of rocks. The geeks lost. I stuck with door number 1 and won a brand new car!

 

[Gregory E]

for me, it's REALLY easy to tell when certain cards are coming out...even on a six deck shoe.
I've done it many times for myself and other players(I've made players few hundred dollars,
and of course money for myself, when they bet it for me)

JohnS,
1) Doesn't the deck(s) get shuffled enough to break up these "patterns"?
2) Don't you have to be really careful about people making money for you like this? I'm guessing you would be in big trouble if you got caught...

 

[JohnS]

Hey JohnS, is there some sort of hierarchical rank of dealers for the various games? Like you start out on the roulette table then they move you to Pai Gow, then to Craps, and finally to Blackjack? Or how does that work?

What about Casinos, any preference to work at one or another, or are they all pretty much similar?

Is the Orleans on the strip? I never saw it when I was in Vegas, but will stop in next time I'm there.

I saw on the travel channel that Hard Rock hotel has an outdoor pool Blackjack table, how does that work with the eye in the sky??

1. What ever your trained for, that's where they put you, when needed.
Like I went to school for Blackjack and roulette.(yes there is an actual school for this!)

2.After school, your only shot is at off the strip shi**y places.(where you don't make alot of money)
I was lucky enough to get hired at a MAJOR off the strip casino that pays VERY WELL.

3. Orleans is about 3 or so blocks away from the strip. Right on Arville and Tropicana.

4. I live right across the street from the Hard Rock, I saw they just installed BJ tables at the pool, haven't went to them yet, but isn't there a movie with blackjack tables in the pool...Revenge of the Nerds 2(where Poindexter walks clothed in the pool?) or Honeymoon in Vegas?

 

[Brad_V]

Help me out here, Stephen... If I choose door #1 first and then door #3 is taken away, I now have a 50/50 chance if I switch. BUT, I still have a 50/50 chance if I don't switch.

For all we know, #1 could be the correct door the whole time. But no matter what door you choose first, there is always at least one other door to be taken away to leave two, so, really, whatever you choose the first round makes no difference at all, and then in the second round you have a 50/50 chance by default. But having a 50/50 chance now doesn't make your choice in the first round any less correct/incorrect. The first round is completely useless no matter what door you may have chosen, and then the second round you have a 50/50 chance whether you switch or not.

 

[Brad_V]

There's a school for blackjack? Oh man, I don't think most dealers I play with have been to that school! Most know the obvious stuff like don't split 10s and all that, but half of them either believe in superstitious happenings like the 3rd-base person "changing the outcome for the whole table because they hit a 16 against a dealer 6 and 'took his bust card'," or they'll simply not even know basic strategy and do things like ask me if I'm sure when I say I want to double a soft-17 against a 4 or whatever.
(and yes, I know there are dealer schools and the purpose isn't to teach dealers probability theory or basic strategy. just having some fun here.)

 

[Ryan Peter]

John: OK another hierarchy thing: does your ability as a dealer or your rank or whatever allow you to go to higher up tables? So if you are the best dealer in a house you get to deal the $300 table but if you are just out of school you do the $5 table?
Do the pit bosses make any kind of money? I mean the dealers can get crazy tips and no so crazy tips.
Here's a weird situation I saw when I was there (can you tell I am a total Vegas newby? lol) I walked by what looked like a pit boss or slots attendent giving this woman a very hard time. She was making a bit of a scene too. I have no idea what happened before I got there nor do I even know what could have happened? Then he told her she had to leave the area and go back to her room. She went back to her room/elevators and left the area. It was bizarre. What kind of problems can arise in the slots area?
That's cool you live close to the strip, I was wondering about commuting and all that. I have to imagine if you live in Vegas it's a single guys dream with all the strippers and showgirls.
So what's the weirdest thing you've ever seen someone do who knew a lot about the game?
What do you think of roulette? I lost some money there and didn't have much fun doing it. I can't think of a game that is so completely based on luck!

 

[StephenK]

Brad,

I think you answered your question. When you chose door #1, (from 3 choices) what was your chances of picking the right one? 1 in 3 right? Now, one of the other doors is opened. As you said, regardless of whether you chose correctly on the initial pick, there will ALWAYS be a "boobie" to reveal to you. Having this revealed does not alter your initial probability, 1 in 3. You picked #1 under those conditions, what happened afterward doesn't change that. Only by switching when you are down to 2 choices do you change the probability to 50%.

Let's change the question, say there is 1 red card and 9 black cards face down. You pick a card, then the dealer (who knows where the red one is) reveals 8 black cards, has your chances gone from 1 in 10 to 1 in 2? Nope, there was always 8 other blacks cards to show you. Your chances have not changed.

 

[GregoryM]

Here's a Link Removed so that you can try it out yourself and see that switching does actually double your chance of winning.

 

[Howard Williams]

HAHAHAHA !!!

I did the demo thing. I played 10 times without switching. I won 30% of the time (3 of 10). Then I played 10 more times switching. After 6 plays I was 1 and 5. A lowly 16.7%. I said they're never gonna believe this. Sure enough I won the next 4 in a row to end up at 5 and 5 or 50%. Now to me, that kinda proves the point I was trying to make earlier.

 

[Jim_F]

Tried the demo. My results were even more dramatic-1/10 keeping and 9/10 trading.

Now I get it. If you keep, your chances are 1/3, but if you trade, it's the same as if you were allowed to pick 2 boxes, or 2/3.

It's easier for me to think of the "trade" strategy as initially picking the box I don't want, leaving me with the other two.

BTW, thanks all for the blackjack insight. Maybe I'll take it up someday-I can't play it much worse than I do poker (though I find poker much more fun)

I promise I won't split 10s

 

[Brad_V]

I looked at the demo page, and the very bottom is a pic showing you what happens when Monty takes away a box without the car in it -- you have a 50/50 chance the second round no matter what you do.

Either I'm missing something, or I'm right. If the game is that he opens a door that you *didn't* pick, then as I said before, you are guaranteed 50/50 no matter what you do at any time. If the game is that he opens any of the doors, including possibly your own, THEN it's 1/3rd. If he opens a door with the car behind it, then there's no point in going to round two anyway. So that's the difference between having a 1/3rd chance and a 1/2 chance. If the game is that he will always open a door that doesn't have a car behind it, then you are always guaranteed a 50/50 shot overall.

 

[Jim_F]

If you randomly decide on the fly whether to keep or trade, I think it's 50-50 at at the time you make the choice. If you go in with a set strategy of keeping, it's 33.3%. If you go in with a set strategy of trading, it's 66.7%.