I don't know about that. Two factors seriously impede PS3's adoption, which lead to a third, probably fatal, factor.
First, The pricing of the PS3. Even down to $450 for the base unit, PS3 is ridiculously expensive. Once you're done adding in games and an extra controller, you're looking around $600 just to buy in. Go to the second tier of console and you're around $800. Laptops cost less than this. One of the driving factors for Consoles over PC's is cost, and PS3 is well over the limit. At this price point, PS3's viability is subject to factor 2.
Factor 2 is the games. Games sell consoles, No one buys a console as a decoration. Since it's all in the games, and the PS3 is prohibitively expensive to purchase on the promise of games, PS3's sales will be driven almost entirely by the number and quality of their games. This is where we run into the biggest problem. The vast majority of PS3 games are available on X-box 360 and/or the PC. There are only a very few titles that are exclusive to Sony, and only 2 or 3 of which can be considered A++ titles(Grand Turismo, Metal Gear, Final Fantasy). Given the price point, it's highly unlikely alot of people will be able to justify an ~$600-800 buy-in for only 2 titles that can't be found anywhere else. Alot of people will hit "Wait and see" mode.
Which leads to the fatal factor. If PS3 is prohibitively expensive to the vast majority of the market, and remember the middle class is a minority now, and there aren't a significant number of exclusive A++ titles, sales will be slow. If sales are slow, Studios get a message, the message being that it's more cost effective to develop for competiting platforms than it is PS3.
As such, it becomes a self-destructive cycle. The less console sales there are, the less games that are made, the less people are inclined to purchase the console.
There are other factors which are going to seriously impact PS3's adoption rate as well, limited supply of Cell, hardware failure of Cell, and overheating. Sony's going to be doing replacements on alot of their units, which is going to further limit supply.
Name does not sell consoles. Games sell consoles. At the price they're asking, the deciding factor is going to be the games, and Sony's pretty weak on that front.
Will Sony sell every launch box they make? Most certainly. Will Sony sell every unit they make for the next year as soon as it hits the shelf? Highly unlikely. Most people simply don't drop >$600 without something tangible to show for it, and Sony just doesn't have anything to show.
As a final note, as a reference...
http://www.gamespot.com/games.html?t...dir=asc&page=0
The bulk of the PS3 games don't even have release dates yet, and out of the remainder, the majority are very spread throughout 2007. Not a good sign, the whole thing made worse by virtue of the fact that two of the A++ tiles(Final Fantasy and GT) lack solid release dates.
