Originally Posted by davesmith
But for how long will Android struggle on a tablet? Surely given 6 months Android will have been refined beyond the BlackBerry. I mean, BlackBerry are on an absolute collapse, surely?
I also concur with this general feeling that RIM haven't got either the home or work market on board with the Playbook. Finally, did everyone hear about the last couple of interviews given by the co CEOs? There was one walkout and one iffy performance involved. They are under lots of pressure.
I think there are a few misconceptions here. I'm sure they are under pressure as marketshare goes down. But marketshare isn't the same as profitability or units shipped. Last year RIM shipped 52M units. That's a 40% increase from the year before. They had $924 Million in profits. Only Apple had a better profit sheet on the phone end. LG, Sony and others got took to the cleaners in a competitive android market that is saturated.
Android will become dominant in the marketplace. That's a fact. RIM has no ability to produce units as quickly as all Android manufacturers combined. Neither does Apple. As the smart phone market expands, Android benefits. Only WP7 also has the development partners to really pull off huge volumes, but it's adoption rate isn't big enough to matter (yet).
But I've seen several of the Android tablets, played with several... and I think the idea that "how long will they struggle with a tablet" I think they are going to struggle for a while. Realistically, they are still struggling with a phone. Android phones -are- cool. But they aren't a universal platform that really clicks on every level, and you have wildly different hardware out there and means to get at it.
Android is running the risk of the Windows95 problem. Huge, widespread adoption. An open "do what you will" marketplace. End results: if you ARE the perceived leader in a field, you'll attract everything from subpar quality offerings to other problems.
Google Virus problems (on tablets and phones) http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2011/03/google-removing-virus-infected-android-apps-from-phones-tablets-promises-better-secutiry.html
Or really shitty google devices, being pitched everywhere from Walmart to Walgreens to online from manufacturers you've never heard of.
Android is building a huge ecosphere it has to carry with it, and it has done it in short order. Developers will want fair compatibility, and with things like Samsung being Android 2.2/2.3, Xoom being 3.0, and all the cheap tablets being 2.2/2.3, I think the road ahead of Google is going to be harder then people think. It's kind of like Linux. I LOVE Mandriva AND Ubuntu. But the same packages on one aren't necessarily there for another. Someone else prefers redhat. A 3rd person likes PCLinuxOS. Universal compatibility becomes a bitch.
RIM has the growth problem; they cannot grow to scale to Apple. They can't Grow to scale to match up with dozens of android developers. But like Apple (and an attempt by MS) they will be offering a single development platform with a standardized hardware setup, and updates will be universal and can be managed. You'll know what's coming and who has it.
I think Google will grab the most marketshare of anyone. And I think they are going to end up with the product with the most fragmentation, grousing and no steady experience.