"Reel Talk" says not to invest in Blu-Ray 1/11/2009 (1 Viewer)

[Loregnum]

well time to sell my blu-ray collection then.

I am all about movies via download so my ISP can charge me a few hundred a month. Anyone who thinks downloads are the near future is not living in this world where ISPs are coming down hard on monthly caps which clearly shows downloads ain't happening any time soon. Not to mention that the avg connection in North America is slooooooooow and people will not want to wait for a movie to d/l.

As for VOD via cable/satellite, I agree that it could replace rentals but it won't replace blu-ray. I am all for VOD for TV series where I can catch up but I am not going to pay extra for that service.

 

[Edwin-S]

Pay-per-view hasn't replaced rentals, so why should VOD? VOD will appeal to a segment of the market, but that doesn't mean that it will take over the entire rental market.

 

[Ethan Riley]

VOD gets better every year; but if anything, it's going to replace Pay-Per-View, not physical media. VOD is what you would want for watching football and other sporting events, tv shows you'd only watch once--like news, reality shows, talk shows, etc.

I believe that people really do enjoy owning physical media, storing them, shelving them, etc. I've been doing it since 1983. I have a huge library and it's only going to get bigger. I don't have the slightest desire to d/l anything, ever!

 

[Douglas Monce]

I find that interesting because in the documentary about Jack Warner on the new Casablanca blu-ray, his brother is quoted as saying that they got into the movie business because it was the only product they knew of that they still owned after they sold it. The studios are still trying to put that genie back into the bottle. I'm starting to think that they might be at least partly successful.

Doug

 

[Ryan-G]

You bring up a valid concern, but I think there's an important mitigating factor you're probably not aware of 'cause it's received little attention due to recent events.

One of President-elect Obama's primary goals as far as the internet goes is to legislate out the ability for ISP's to cap bandwidth, place monthly caps on users, or to traffic-shape. Obama has stated he is concerned that the US lags significantly behind in broadband availability, and this is one of his steps to rectifying this.

Additionally, Comcast did not make any friends on capital hill with it's rude behaivior*, and I doubt there'll be much support in Congress for them.

I fully expect this legislation to pass.

*Comcast was brought to report to the government on it's traffic shaping bit-torrent activity by limiting people's ability to connect outside the Comcast network by forging packets and duping clients into dropping connections. Instead of showing up for the hearings, in an arrogant act of disdain, Comcast paid people off the street to go in and sit in the hearing.

In general, you may be able to talk the Government into seeing your side, but agitating them rarely ends well. I suspect legislation will be quickly passed.

(Additionally, Obama seeks legislation restoring privacy to users on the internet.)

You can read about it here.

DailyTech - Obama Pushes Ambitious Tech Agenda; Tops on List: Privacy, Fast Net

 

[Douglas Monce]

My cable provider is going the other way. the Speedboost feature actually means that I have MORE bandwidth than ever before. And I regularly get the equivalent of t3 speed.

Doug

 

[Brian Kidd]

I tend to think that VOD will end up replacing the traditional rental methods. I love the streaming NetFlix movies (even though the selection is still fairly small). I think for movies that you love, though, physical media is the only thing I'll buy. I hate DRM-ed downloads that only play on certain players and that can be rendered useless at any time. There are so many movies that came out on VHS and Laserdisc that have never (and probably will never) come out on DVD or Blu-Ray. A complete change to VOD would mean that lesser or controversial films could disappear, never to be seen again.

I got my Blu-Ray player for Christmas and couldn't be happier. I don't think it's going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[Stephen_J_H]

At the same time, VOD reduces costs in terms of duplication, printing, etc., so I could see it being a viable way for lesser known material to reach its audience. That being said, I don't think physical media is going anywhere. As an example, look @ videogames: all 3 of the current generation of consoles offer downloadable games, but do you see them moving away from physical media @ all? No, because you can't take a download to a buddy's house and play it on his system, whereas with a physical disc, you can. You can also usually take your game saves with you on a memory card so you don't have to start from scratch (@ least with the XBox 360 and the Wii; I don't know about the PS3). Movie collectors occupy a similar mindset. This is what differentiates movies from mp3s, wmas, aac, etc.: music is something you can put on a portable player and plug in just about anywhere; movies and games, not so much.

 

[Brian Kidd]

Stephen, whilst I agree that lower distribution costs could potentially spur the availability of lesser-known titles, if VOD were the only option, then the material could just as easily disappear should the studio choose to remove it for whatever reason. For example, a film like SONG OF THE SOUTH is only viewable to interested parties because of the availability of copies from older formats such as VHS or Laserdisc. It's films like this that would be the victims of a complete changeover to VOD. I agree with you that physical media will be around for a while yet, but the studios are strongly pushing for digital copies that can be 100% under their control, as opposed to physical media that can be traded, re-sold, and kept for an indefinite period of time with no further money coming in to the studio. Although hackers can always find a way to circumvent DRM, if the machines that are the sole method of viewing said material are configured not to display non-DRMed material then no amount of hacking will make a difference. The end result is that those of us who are film buffs will be forced to continually pay the studios for the right to see these films. I'm not saying that this is inevitable. I am just a librarian and have no connection to the movie studios nor the equipment manufacturers. I'm just speculating based upon the information I have gleaned from my own reading on the matter. I do think, however, that film buffs have a valid reason to be concerned.

 

[Gekkou]

Well at this point I don't need to point out how worthless this TV host's opinion is.

However I must say that if HD VoD is going to take over soon then that's a great incentive to buy physical media while I still can. I have no interest in switching over to over-compressed and DRM-happy downloads.

 

[Jeff_HR]

Just ignore this woman.