Question about sports betting

Discussion in 'Archived Threads 2001-2004' started by Brian Perry, Sep 7, 2002.

  1. Brian Perry

    Brian Perry Cinematographer

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    While perusing the odds on NFL games during my trip to Vegas, I noticed something odd. The point spread was equal/offset for all games but the money line was not. For example, the Bears are -4.5 and the Vikings are +4.5. However, for the money line (to win the game outright), the Bears are -210 (you must bet $210 to win $100) but the Vikings are only +170 ($100 bet wins $170). In other words, the casino is not creating a fair bet--in addition to the 10% juice on all bets, they are building in an additional edge for themselves.

    They are able to do whatever they want, of course, but I wonder why they don't also do this on the point spread bets.
     
  2. Howard Williams

    Howard Williams Supporting Actor

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    The money-line is just a different way to express the odds. If the game was considered an even match, you'd have both teams at -110, which is the same as any straight bet. When one team is better, the money-line is suppose to express this imbalance in terms of odds instead of points. Remember that with the money-line there are no points so you're only betting on who will win the game according to the scoreboard.

    One other thing to remember. These lines have nothing to do with being fair or predicting the game outcome although it's incredible how close they often come. The lines are designed to encourage equal betting on both sides. Nothing more, nothing less.
     
  3. Jed M

    Jed M Cinematographer

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    Howard is right. I agree with what you are saying about it being unfair but hey, if they were giving away money at the casinos they wouldn't be the palaces they are today. I think the point spread is a North American phenomenon. Most other countries use odds (money line).
     
  4. Evan S

    Evan S Cinematographer

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  5. Jeremiah

    Jeremiah Screenwriter

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    Evan, actually only about 5-10% of sports betters ever make money, about 95% of people that bet on sports lose. Also, that GB/N.E. game is one of the few exceptions to the rule.

    The diffrence in payout on money lines is to make sure the book/Casino most always wins; no sense in having -200 and +200 on the same game b/c the books would have to have a majority on the losing end of that game but at -200 and +170 the books can have equal betting on either side and still win.

    If you want to win at sports gambling, either 1) Don't gamble, 2) Become a bookie 3) Find a solid service to call for picks.
     
  6. Evan S

    Evan S Cinematographer

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    Jeremiah, I didn't say the house doesn't come out on top with sports betting, simply that your odds are better than say Roulette or Blackjack. Gambling is gambling and you had better expect to lose if you are going to partake.
     
  7. Vince Maskeeper

    Vince Maskeeper Producer

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    Could you explain the statistical math around this statement. It seems wholly unlikely when in sports betting, there are only 2 options (I guess if you include racing this would be different, but).

    One would figure that since the whole point of the spread system is to equalize the bets on both sides of the ball- that in any given game, if figured correctly at the spread- would have almost perfect 50-50 distribution of wagers. In said case, half of the betters would always win and half would always lose with the middle man collecting his due (as said above, pay the winner with the loser's money and keep the fee for yourself).

    So, I'm confused how 95% could lose. Granted, I guess if you include non-50/50 sports (Horse Racing for example)- a majority of betters would lose-- but I would still think with the HUGE popularity of College Football Betting that averaging out all bets would be much better than 5%.

    So, where does the 5% winner stat come from?

    -Vince

    PS: Since I'm not personally a gambler, I'm curious how the "house's take" works. From the money line system explained above- I see the 10% built in-- but on a point spread system does the house just take 10% (a 1.9:1 payout)? So a $100 bet on a spread game pays $90 on a win?
     
  8. Jeremiah

    Jeremiah Screenwriter

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    My bad Evan, I misunderstood your post.

    Vince, the 5% sports bet winners are for the long haul of a season/career. Most people when they bet would bet several games(I did this as do all gamblers) at a time instead of just one game, so most decent gamblers will go 50%(1-1 or 2-2 etc.) and lose money cause the juice or more if the juice is over 10%. So on a single game people will win and lose but those same people almost always has action on another game or two that usually screws them(sports is just too unpredictable). Also, if you are betting money lines(mainly baseball) and you lay -300 on Schilling it just takes one bad outing or even a good outing with a no decision and you will need to win 3 straight starts to break even(not good value).

    Some people are good at one sport say Baseball but not great at others and they can also give all the winnings from baseball right back betting on football.

    People will also bet Parleys(all teams have to win on that bet for you to win) and almost always get beat that way; it is hard enough going 1-0 let alone going 2-0.

    The second rule in gambling is almost always bet the same amount but a majority of betters do not stay disciplined and will bet more on a game and lose. They can go 5-2 and still lose money, it goes both ways but usually you lose more times like that than win. Few gamblers have this discipline.

    The first rule is not to chase your money, that means win you lose don't double up the next bet and so forth; just get it back slowly. You would be AMAZED at how many +300 underdogs win once you chase your bets betting on favorites. This is how a gambler will never get out of the negative. Few gamblers have this discipline. My friend lost 12,000 dollars in 1 week by chasing. He had a -300 baseball favorite and got beat(down 3 grand on top of the 3 he lost on a couple of other bets) and than lost a 6,000 parley with a St. Louis Cards and the Laker's game 3 verses the Kings(another -350).

    I hope I answered your question Vince but I am not good in relaying my thoughts on paper(seems like I rambled more than anything). Basically there are SO many games to bet that all gamblers are on all different sides of every game, an infinite amount of combinations. The ones that win put in a lot of time and with experience will see sucker bets and games win the lines are not what they should be; this takes quite a bit of knowledge and understanding of many, many, teams.

    I quit betting a few months ago because I realized I am not that good, I know my stuff but there is just so difficult to win.
     
  9. Howard Williams

    Howard Williams Supporting Actor

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    I have a betting strategy for football. It is not perfect but I have won using it for a couple of seasons. I'll elaborate on it right after the Dallas/Texas game. I took $250 to $1600 last season and then as most gamblers do, I started betting more, hit a cold streak etc. Luckily, I had the brains to cashed it out a $900. I was one touchdown away from taking that 1600 to $2500. Freakin Chargers vs. Buffalo. Argh !!! Last year was my first year out of retirement. When we bought a house in 1996 I quit betting on football for 5 years.

    I agree that sports betting, especially football/basketball gives you the best chance at winning some money. I wouldn't touch baseball.
     

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