Pressure mounts on U to turn Blu (1 Viewer)

[Shane Martin]

Some facts there but the conclusions are pure fud.

 

[Paul Arnette]

No, that wasn't what I found fascinating, but I think you knew that. I found the tactic of trying to make Universal the "bad guy" interesting.

Although, you both bring up a good point. I think that the difference in the tactics and the tone are due to one format trying to "win it all" and one trying to force a stalemate.

As far as why BD supporters don't seem as willing to co-exist as HD DVD supporters, well ask yourselves how you'd feel if the reverse was true. The answer I think would truly answer whether or not you feel that home video is better off with one HD format or two.

I myself really don't care which format wins. For me its not a matter of principal, it is a matter of what do I feel will spur adoption the fastest and get titles to me the quickest as a result. We've debated the merits of this position before, but that's still my opinion as of today. Right now, the "path of least resistance" for one format would be for Universal to go neutral. That's the angle the BDA is playing, and I can't blame them especially if they feel that retailers are sympathetic to having a single format.

 

[Jordan_E]

"Pressure" to sell, maybe, 30K copies of any given title? The numbers just aren't out there for anyone to call victory.

 

[Paul_Scott]

Actually no- I didn't know that (though I should have- what can I say, I'm thick that way sometimes)- but I do see what you are talking about- and yes it is an interesting move.
But at the same time, it seems like a tactic that is more likely to end up emboldening Universal to steel its ground.
I expect they (and HD DVD) will get slaughtered in Q4 this year- but it will be a relative slaughter that HD DVD can continue to ride out- especially since Universal is the one with some high profile properties in development for release next year (along with some of their anticipated fall '07 titles getting a spring home video release).
So even though the "press" is going to be all one sided 6 months from now, I don't see Universal feeling a need to budge anytime soon.

Like you, ultimately I could care less which one wins- as long as the ultimate winner offers a viable and sustainable proposition...which I have to be honest, I still have some niggling doubts about Bd's ability to win the 'post war' peace.

I will admit though that I used to think that the HD DVD moniker was a + for that format in terms of immediate consumer recognition- now I'm not so sure.
I think younger consumers especially will find cachet in the novelty of the Bd name- its the new, hip, cool, etc thing. DVD and by extension HD DVD is old school at this point.

Of course, affordability trumps most of these facile points ultimately anyway...

 

[mcintosh]

Hello all, I`m new to this forum. My position is totally different from all of you. For years, the high end or AV industry has wanted an opportunity to have more consumers take that next step up the ladder to our equipment. With the expertise and experience that the high end has, this would be an excellent opportunity to adopt new clientele.
Since 911, home theater installations have been growing everyday. Those who used to jetset across the world, have built extensions to their homes, and are spending more time with their families. But, what do we have now?!! Another format war, the last thing the high end community needs. We have seen what has happened with DVD - A/SACD. Now we must deal with this. A lot of these consumers are hard working family oriented people. Not Mr and Mrs. Tech. They want to go home, push the power button, hit play, and ENJOY!!
Why do you think AMX, CRESTRON, and the like, are so successful. Now, even your wife, can fully understand how to control the system.
I for now, have not taken the plunge. Get a "universal dvd/cd player, (there are many to choose from) they will play just about any disc you throw at it, and wait it out.
What a grand opportunity is being missed with this war. HDMI, 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, HDCP handshake issues, changing your video library, no, this is not needed at this time

 

[Jim-M]

They may only sell 30K of a good title now with a format war going on, but a lot of people are thinking that if there is only one format that the number of copies sold for a given title would increase exponentially. For example, if Universal sells 30K for a good title now, it may still be stuck near 30k 6 months from now with 2 competing formats. If the format war were to end, maybe that number would increase to 100K in 6 months.

 

[Bob_L]

What would motivate Variety to write a story like this that has no real substance?

I'm sure it would never be because someone at Sony promised them a story they WANTED in exchange for planting this item.

I'm also pretty confident that the Envisioneering Group doesn't count Sony among its clients.

 

[Larry Sutliff]

 

[ReggieW]

I wouldn't count on it.

On another note....I don't think anyone will treat this Variety "story" with any real seriousness....

Except The Digital Bits of course.

 

[Tim Glover]

There will be some big HD DVD titles in September-December:

Knocked Up
Evan Almighty (a dud yes but's its doing well b/office)
The Bourne Ultimatum
Chuck & Larry

Those new releases should sell well. As big as Spidey 3 or POTC 3? No, but I think some of those will hold their own.

Hard to predict these things and we certainly can't predict what people buy. Ghost Rider for example was horrible...and yet it's selling bonkers on BD. Go figure.

 

[Eric F]

Those HD releases look a little lackluster compared to Blu's Sep-Dec:

Spidey 3 ( or box set in some regions, maybe here)
Transformers (confirmed on both formats)
POTC 3(likely)
Narnia (likely,)

Yes, I realize they're both niche formats, but the newer movies that HD doesn't have, especially Spidey 3, PotC and Narnia will help push sales in a big way.

 

[Tim Glover]

Transformers is both as you point out but Narnia is no more likely than Jaws or ET for Universal or any other film that has "potential" for release...

 

[Brandon Conway]

Actually, Disney has stated they have Narnia slated for Q4 this year, which, while not absolute, certainly puts it as much more likely than Jaws or ET.

 

[Dave Mack]

Actually Evan Almighty really tanked at the B.O.
Don't think it will be a big seller with the word of mouth it has.


EVAN ALMIGHTY

Domestic Total as of Jul. 15, 2007: $87,790,505
Distributor: UniversalRelease Date: June 22, 2007
Genre: Fantasy ComedyRunning Time: 1 hrs. 30 min.
MPAA Rating: PGProduction Budget: $175 million

 

[ReggieW]

I would agree. The Q4 titles for BD ARE better. "Knocked Up" may do well on HD-DVD, but Universal must release some better catalog titles for Q4 as well. The line-up leaked to "The Bits" did not appear any better than what we've seen the past 3 months.

 

[Eric F]

Narnia is always a good cross-market title for Disney and should chalk up a fair amount of sales.

I really do hope Sony decides to sell a whole Spidey box set as well here in the US, I do not really want to purchase Spidey 3 alone, as it's my least favorite of the 3 by far and I don't want to have to spend the extra money to import it.

Transformers on Blu is rumored to have a lossless track, will the HD version have the same?

 

[Paul_Scott]

I think that Universals strategy may be to just ride out the rest of 2007, and let Bd exhaust some of its biggest guns on a 1-2% niche share of the market.
After the Spider-man titles, and MIB, what does Sony have?
Fox, though it may begin releasing content at some point has proven that they are as fickle as it gets, so I wouldn't expect much competition from them even thru next year. Disney like-wise is only going to be getting its toes wet with Sleeping Beauty, and keeping most of its true gems under lock and key for a while- including parceling ot the better Pixar titles very slowly.

I get the feeling that Universal is feeling under no pressure whatsoever to go anywhere but straight ahead at the pace that suits them.

 

[ReggieW]

You make some good points Paul.

I do believe that Universal and The Weinsteins will have some good 4th quarter titles they've yet to announce for HD-DVD. Afterall, it's only July. We know that ST:TOS S1 is coming and POSSIBLY (From Amir's cryptic statements) Lord of the Rings from New Line. I don't expect to see the big Spielberg/Lucas titles until there's greater market penetration. I could however see Universal releasing something like American Graffiti or 1941.

 

[Cees Alons]

No U-Turn!



Cees

 

[ppltd]

In the case of a family comedy, the BO revenue does not necessarily correspond the the Home Video revenue. Many Box Office losses have been turned into gains when the title is released on video.

By the way, while certainly a loss for Universal based on the ridicules amount they spent on this film, I am not sure I would call a near 100 million dollar revenue generator tanking at the box office.

From a purly financial perspective, the foreign revenue may push this movie to at least a break even point. Still, at a budget of 175 million dollars the Universal executive that sanctioned this should be out looking for another job.