Oscar discussion

Discussion in 'Archived Threads 2001-2004' started by Seth Paxton, Dec 26, 2001.

  1. Seth Paxton

    Seth Paxton Lead Actor

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    I can't call it **Official**, but I figure we probably do need to get an official Oscar discussion thread going with so much talk going in multiple threads at this point about Oscar guesses, news, and what indicators are out there for possible Oscar winners.
    So why don't we put all that stuff here.
    Things like what I said in another thread -
    I think A Beautiful Mind(Dreamworks) is the current favorite with In the Bedroom(Miramax) on it's heels. We know those 2 studios can market their way to a nomination and that those are the films they will be backing with all the critical awards they have been getting.
    Other films in the mix - FOTR, Black Hawk Down, Moulin Rouge, Muholland Drive.
    We've also discussed Best Actor noms in other threads where Jack Nicholson got overlooked for the Pledge so far, as has Guy Pearce for Memento. If they don't get nominations it will bother me a lot actually.
    Honestly, with the talk for Nicole in MR I actually think Ewan outshines her and could be considered, but won't be.
    Speaking of Nicole, she probably has a shot with either MR or The Others, but what about Tilda Swinton. She seems lost in the Muholland Dr/In the Bedroom runs for Watts and Spacek. I'd hate to see her overlooked.
    One other early subject has been how diverse the early results have been. To me this feels even more wide open than last year, which I think people forget actually handed statues out to several different pictures rather than just Gladiator. Traffic, CTHD, Almost Famous, Wonder Boys, Pollack all got noticed.
    This year could be crazier I think. I can see a variety of films each getting 1 or 2 each split over the major awards. Besides those mentioned we might even see Ghost World, Waking Life, Shrek get a nomination or 2. With Ali and Majestic stepping aside (it appears) the field only gets more wide open. I think this might be one of the most fun Oscar races we've had in quite awhile (although last year's was pretty good, even with the Gladiator wins [​IMG])
    Oh, one other thing? Is Amelie really going to get run over by In the Mood for Love? I prefer Amelie and thought it a shoe-in earlier, but with the critics speaking out it seems like Mood has the slight edge.
    Let the bickering begin, please try to get your post in before the first "Who cares about the Oscars, they always suck" post is made. [​IMG]
     
  2. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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  3. Matt Stone

    Matt Stone Lead Actor

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    Oh...that was cheap, Mr. "I'm an Admin...and I can delete posts"

    Hehe.

    Seriously though, I haven't had the chance to see A Beautiful Mind yet...but it's a front runner in my head. Of course I'm pulling for Memento, but that plays to my "glutton for punishment" fetish.

    I agree with you though Seth, I think that we prolly won't see one film dominate the nominations (unless word of mouth continues spreading with FotR).
     
  4. Thi Them

    Thi Them Producer

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    What happened to Matt's post?

    Anyway, it looks to me like LOTR will get the most nominations this year including Best Picture.

    ~T
     
  5. Craig S

    Craig S Producer
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    I think The Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The Rings will lead the pack in nominations this year, because I believe it will be nominated in ALL of the technical categories:
    Art Direction
    Costumes
    Makeup
    Sound
    Sound Effects Editing
    Visual Effects
    In addition, I think nominations for Score & Song (Enya) are virtually assured.
    FotR also has a very good shot at scoring nominations for Cinematography, Editing, Screenplay (Adapted), Director & Picture, with a longshot chance at a Supporting Actor nod for either McKellan or Lee.
    FotR is a big, epic film, and the Academy LOVES these, as evidenced by the Gladiator win last year. Now add the fact that FotR has MUCH more critical acclaim than Gladiator, plus it's making big bucks. 13 nominations are not out of the question.
    What FotR has against it is that it's a genre film. That's why I think it will get the big nominations, but its wins will probably be primarily in the tech categories. The Academy will save the big Oscars this year for the more "serious" films - In The Bedroom, A Beautiful Mind, etc.
    It's interesting that Moulin Rouge is getting some heat again. It will be FotR's main competitor in the technical categories, I believe. It may also well be 2nd in total nominations - it could take in the 10-12 range. Speaking of Moulin Rouge, I seem to remember reading somewhere that its signature tune, "Come What May", is not eligible for Best Song? Anybody know anything about that??
    Right now I see for Best Picture:
    A Beautiful Mind
    Black Hawk Down
    The Fellowship Of The Rings
    In The Bedroom
    Moulin Rouge
    This list subject to change!! [​IMG]
     
  6. Walter Kittel

    Walter Kittel Producer

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    I haven't given much thought to the Oscars yet, but I will second Seth's mention of Tilda Swinton. If she doesn't get a Best Actress nomination for The Deep End then I will be extremely disappointed. Of course there is plenty of precedent for this sort of thing. I still am amazed that Ian Holm did not receive a nomination for The Sweet Hereafter back in '97.
    The Fellowship of the Ring, A.I. Artificial Intelligence, and Moulin Rouge should do well in terms of technical nominations. I suspect that Pearl Harbor will get nominations in the sound categories.
    I seriously doubt that Memento will get much recognition. I agree with some others here that its best shot at an Oscar is likely to be Best Adapted Screenplay. Perhaps a nomination for editing?
    Just a few random early Oscar ramblings ( and guesses. ) There are still a number of contenders that I haven't had the pleasure to view.
    - Walter.
     
  7. TerryRL

    TerryRL Producer

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    From the way things look as of right now, here's what the nominations could look like...

    BEST PICTURE

    "A Beautiful Mind"

    "Black Hawk Down"

    "In the Bedroom"

    "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    "Memento"

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Todd Field "In the Bedroom"

    Ron Howard "A Beautiful Mind"

    Peter Jackson "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    David Lynch "Mulholland Drive"

    Ridley Scott "Black Hawk Down"

    BEST ACTOR

    Russell Crowe "A Beautiful Mind"

    Will Smith "Ali"

    Billy Bob Thornton "Monster's Ball"

    Denzel Washington "Training Day"

    Tom Wilkinson "In the Bedroom"

    BEST ACTRESS

    Halle Berry "Monster's Ball"

    Thora Birch "Ghost World"

    Nicole Kidman "The Others"

    Sissy Spacek "In the Bedroom"

    Naomi Watts "Mulholland Drive"

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Steve Buscemi "Ghost World"

    Jamie Foxx "Ali"

    Ben Kingsley "Sexy Beast"

    Ian McKellen "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    Jon Voight "Ali"

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Jennifer Connelly "A Beautiful Mind"

    Cameron Diaz "Vanilla Sky"

    Helen Mirren "Gosford Park"

    Marisa Tomei "In the Bedroom"

    Kate Winslet "Iris"

    BEST FOREIGN FILM

    "Amelie"- France

    "Behind the Sun"- Brazil

    "Monsoon Wedding"- India

    "No Man's Land"- Bosnia

    "Y tu Mama Tambien"- Mexico

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

    "Monsters, Inc."

    "Shrek"

    "Waking Life"

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    "A Beautiful Mind"

    "Ghost World"

    "In the Bedroom"

    "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    "Memento"

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    "Ali"

    "Gosford Park"

    "Monster's Ball"

    "Mulholland Drive"

    "The Royal Tenenbaums"

    BEST ART DIRECTION

    "A Beautiful Mind"

    "A.I. Artificial Intelligence"

    "Black Hawk Down"

    "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    "Moulin Rouge"

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    "A Beautiful Mind"

    "A.I. Artificial Intelligence"

    "Black Hawk Down"

    "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    "Moulin Rouge"

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    "A.I. Artificial Intelligence"

    "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone"

    "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    "Moulin Rouge"

    "Pearl Harbor"

    BEST FILM EDITING

    "A Beautiful Mind"

    "Ali"

    "Black Hawk Down"

    "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    "Memento"

    BEST MAKEUP

    "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone"

    "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    "Planet of the Apes"

    BEST SCORE

    "A Beautiful Mind"

    "Black Hawk Down"

    "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone"

    "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    "Moulin Rouge"

    BEST SONG

    Songs from...

    "Kate & Leopold"

    "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    "Moulin Rouge"

    "Pearl Harbor"

    "Vanilla Sky"

    BEST SOUND

    "A.I. Artificial Intelligence"

    "Black Hawk Down"

    "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone"

    "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    "Pearl Harbor"

    BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

    "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone"

    "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    "Pearl Harbor"

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    "A.I. Artificial Intelligence"

    "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

    "Pearl Harbor"

    According to these predictions, "The Lord of the Rings" is looking at having 14 nominations. That would definitely make it the favorite going into the awards ceremony in March.

    "A Beautiful Mind" is second with 9 nods, while "In the Bedroom" has 6.

    According to this rough list, who will be the big winners?
     
  8. Seth Paxton

    Seth Paxton Lead Actor

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    Robert, that's the funniest abuse of power I've seen around here in quite awhile. [​IMG]
    BTW, I notice Ron's post is starting to get general Oscar comments and I just wanted to make it clear that I wasn't starting this thread to battle with that one or something. It's just that it seemed his was geared more toward the reaction to the "Oscar release" films here at the end of the year.
    This is intended to cover all sorts of angles, from critics lists, history of previous Oscar picks, effects on business, dark horses, front runners, hell maybe hints for your office pool. [​IMG]
    In fact considering the reactions to Vanilla, Ali, and Majestic I don't expect them to get much discussion in this thread at all.
    But seriously, what are the chances that Not Another Teen Movie will get overlooked despite it's obvious Oscar season release. :p)
     
  9. Seth Paxton

    Seth Paxton Lead Actor

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  10. Seth Paxton

    Seth Paxton Lead Actor

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    I also think Pearl Harbor will get NOTHING, except maybe a nom for song (only because MR and Hedwing can't compete in this catagory thanks to previously released songs - yes, even Come What May is inelligible: used in a previous Baz film, either Ballroom or R+J).
    Apes, JP3, Final Fantasy, Shrek, Monsters, FOTR, Harry Potter, PotA, A.I. all have advantages in the appropriate technical awards.
    Like costume - MR, Apes, FOTR...PH would be competing with A Beautiful Mind for the period piece nom since their eras are close, and that would mean without a doubt that ABM would get the nom with it being so more critically received. I mean what about PH costumes outshines anything done in a quality period piece of the same era? Nothing. So with those being neutral, it always goes to the more favored picture. Let's not forget The Man Who Wasn't There as more competition for costuming from that era.
    AI, Apes, Potter, FOTR, JP3 all have leads in effects and sound IMO, among others I have forgotten. We don't even need to mention The Mummy, Driven, or The Fast and the Furious.
    This is a bad year for a film who's main strength is showing some WW2 scenes with CGI and big sound. Too much competition doing the same types of things. PH doesn't have it nearly as easy as The Grinch did.
    My 100% lock, bet your money now, cinch of the year -
    Best Animated Film - Shrek
    I would assume Monsters and Waking Life to be the other 2 noms sent up to get the crap beat out of them.[​IMG] (hey, I'd give it to WL, but what do I know)
     
  11. Michael Reuben

    Michael Reuben Studio Mogul

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  12. Seth Paxton

    Seth Paxton Lead Actor

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    Not faulting, just lamenting, especially in the wake of disappointments any of these films could make a name at just the right time simply by surprising critics. For example, I wonder if you flip-flopped Memento and In The Bedroom if the current status would also be reversed.

    Also, very little mention of Tennebaums despite the fact that critics are mentioning it a little. You at least end up with Hackman in the mix based on what I hear.
     
  13. Terrell

    Terrell Producer

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    Actually, I remember Gladiator getting tons of critical praise. Gladiator got far more glowing reviews than any negative reviews. Ebert was one of the very few that I remember that didn't care for it.
     
  14. Seth Paxton

    Seth Paxton Lead Actor

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    but it wasn't an Oscar front runner till the season hit. It wasn't making the #1 spots very much, yet suddenly vaulted ahead of the pack.

    In fact I recall thinking it was a slight underdog at the Golden Globes. After the win there it became the film to beat though.
     
  15. Nick Sievers

    Nick Sievers Producer

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    I thought Nicholson did an amazing job with The Pledge but this fine piece of cinema is definately going to be looked over for the awards, and its a pity.
     
  16. Chris_Richard

    Chris_Richard Supporting Actor

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    While I don't disagree I am putting my money on the 100% lock being - Rick Baker, make-up, Planet of the Apes
     
  17. DavidAC

    DavidAC Stunt Coordinator

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    I believe FotR will get plenty of nominations but might end up like Star Wars did back in 77. Nominated for 10 awards, cleaned up on the tech awards but ended up losing to Annie Hall. Funny thing also is that when TESB came out in 80 it didnt even get a nom for best pic, I see that happening with LotR:TTT as well. Im hoping out of all the great acting performances in FotR that the Academy recognizes Ian Mckellen for a great perfromance as Gandalf. I know he didnt get Golden Globe Nom which was disappointing, I was wondering perhaps if Hayden Christensen will get bumped come the oscars or was his performance really that good, I have yet to see Life as a House. Also I believe Russel Crowe will be getting his 2nd straight Oscar for a Beautiful Mind.
     
  18. Chuck Mayer

    Chuck Mayer Lead Actor

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    Oscar's are always interesting. Beyond celebrating film, they are a showcase for Hollywood's image. Hollywood wants to be edgy and daring, but they also want to cater to as many people as possible. They are like a well-run MTV[​IMG]
    One key point to remember is who votes for the Oscars...members of the Academy including all previous winners, in ALL categories. Simply put, Gwyneth Paltrow votes for everything, including Best Sound Effects Editing, etc. This is why popular/well-received films win technical awards (see Gladiator in 2000 over better choices such as Perfect Storm and Hollow Man).
    So what does Hollywood want to celebrate in 2002? That will have as much of an impact on votes as the quality of films themselves.
    Spectacle is always popular. Combining critical acclaim and box-office success is very important. Dramatic, intelligent films that showcase triumph over adversity is important. It is a sad fact that there is an Oscar Template (ask Miramax). The fact of the matter is that the "front-runners" must be popular enough to draw a TV crowd. Hollywood will not pick a film to "carry the torch" that few moviegoers have seen, regardless of quality or what deserves it.
    Just my opinion, but I feel it is valid.
    A Beautiful Mind is a certain front-runner, as is Moulin Rouge. LOTR will get many nominations, and will likely perform similar to SW in 1977. Hollywood will want to reward it's audacity and vision, but will be nervous to proclaim it superior to the dramatic, "timely" efforts of smaller films this year. It's a tight rope to walk, but there are rules. It is a little easier to pick winners if you know them.
    Take care,
    Chuck
     
  19. Michael Reuben

    Michael Reuben Studio Mogul

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  20. Craig S

    Craig S Producer
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