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Okay - which will get the biggest box office - HP, LOTR or Monsters Inc? (1 Viewer)

Adam_S

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Monsters weekend numbers are in at 63 million, I bet that falls to 40 million next weekend, with an overall gross at Nov 15 of 110-120 million, when harry potter opens it will fall to five million a week with a slight boost in thanksgiving, and fall off heavily after that, it will be out of main theaters by december. final gross 165 million.
harry potter opens with first weekend at least 80 million, probably closer to ninety, it makes at least that in the thanksgiving week, totalling 200 million easy in two weeks
final gross 450 million. HP will dominate the box office until lord of the rings, with very slight drop offs each week after thanksgiving
Lord of the Rings opens with 65 million, drops about twenty percent over christmas, but continues to make about twenty million a week through january
final gross 300 million
 

Chris

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Wow, those are some high expectations of Harry Potter & LOTR!
Here's my bet..
Monsters, Inc. closes with $204M in the kitty.
Harry Potter closes with $380M in the kitty.
LOTR closes with a dissapointing $142M.
I have a feeling movies with elements of war and monsters (true ones) will not fair well, whereas the escapist nature of Harry Potter & Monsters, Inc. make it an event for families to get out and see.
I also think HP & Monsters, Inc. will do far more "in week" (Mon-Thur) business then will LOTR.
 

RobertR

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quote: I have a feeling movies with elements of war and monsters (true ones) will not fair well[/quote]
What are the "true" monsters in LOTR?
escapist nature
You ARE aware that LOTR is a fantasy, yes?
[Edited last by RobertR on November 05, 2001 at 12:37 PM]
 

Doug D

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Over at cnn, they have a poll asking if you plan to see HP. As of this morning 65% said no.
Not really surprising. If we take that poll as statistically valid for 300 million Americans (probably not for myriad reasons, not the least of which is the number of 6 year olds that probably don't read CNN.com), then it's saying over 100 million Americans will see Harry Potter, which would be somewhere in the $400-600 million dollar range of ticket sales. Assuming all those kids only go to see it once in the theater.
I'm pretty sure the producers would be happy with that.
 

David Dennison

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After taking my family to see Monsters Inc. this weekend, I predict Monsters will be the winner. A short run time, good movie and kid/family appeal will be the deciding factor.
I love LOTR and hope FOTR does awesome, but I think it will be somewhat of a niche (although extremely faithful) audience.
I also enjoy Harry Potter, but 2.5 hours of running time is going to be tough to pull in all the young viewers. I know I won't be taking my preschooler to a movie that long.
Final Domestic Gross:
Monsters Inc. $220 million
Harry Potter $200 million
LOTR $180 million
 

Geoffrey_A

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AOTC might "rule" all of them, but I doubt it. Several problems against it. Firstly, it's not in competition with any of these films, so it's a useless comment to begin with. Secondly, after the relative disappointment of Episode I, I suspect that the crowds for Episode II aren't going to be as big. People aren't going to be clamouring to be first as they were before. Thirdly, The public is no longer starving for new Star wars the way it was before. When TPM came out, it was the first NEW star wars film in 16 years, the fans were ravenous. NOw, we've got episode I, it's only been 2 years since the last Star Wars film. No one is going to be as Rabid for it. I would bet that episode III will do some major bank, because it will be the last star wars film ever, people will turn up for that. Episode II however, being the middle film, isn't going to be the big event episode I or III were and will be. I camped out in line for I, I'll camp out for III, I won't bother for II. Not to say II isn't going to be good, I just don't think it's going to carry the same level of ecitement as I or III. Same thing happened to Empire.
As for the HP/LOTR/MI debate, well, I still think LOTR will be the dominant film, with HP a close second. I saw MI on the weekend and it was terrific, but once HP comes out, I'm sure it's numbers will drop dramatically. Hell, I already have my tickets for HP, I'm sure MI is going to make all it's money in these first 2 weeks then fall off the radar.
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Geoff
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[Edited last by Geoffrey_A on November 05, 2001 at 05:37 PM]
 

Kami

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I have a feeling movies with elements of war and monsters (true ones) will not fair well, whereas the escapist nature of Harry Potter & Monsters, Inc. make it an event for families to get out and see.
Huh? Have you ever read LOTR? It's a perfect example of "escapist nature"...Harry Potter could be considered "escapist" but it's written for children..not the same thing for me.
Sure a bunch of little kids will see Harry Potter, but the Lord of the Rings crowd is where all the hardcore fans are. I consider myself a hardcore fan and I'll probably see it about a dozen times in the theater. That may be a conservative estimate. That's where they'll make their money! Kids will see HP once or twice, LOTR fans will see it lots of times. Plus all of the people that grew up with LOTR in the in the 60s will probably start seeing all the promotions for it, have those old memories rekindled and go and see it.
LOTR is going to be successful, no doubt about it. So will HP, but since when does box office success dictate the quality of a movie? Take Shawshank Redemption as an example. We all know LOTR will be a better movie (don't even try to deny it please). :)
[Edited last by Kami on November 05, 2001 at 08:25 PM]
 

Tom Ryan

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Kami, it will be hardly be just little kids going to Harry Potter. The books are full of a sense of joy that everyone will love. I'm twenty years old, read the first Harry Potter book last week, and already love it and can't wait for the movie. I know I'm going to be in the theaters the first day I get a chance come Nov. 16th.
However, I have of course read the Lord Of The Rings as well as The Hobbit, and I think those are going to be a slam dunk as well. I think I will probably enjoy LOTR more because since I'm older I appreciate more serious fare, and everyone knows the books are simply masterful. I also think LOTR will make more money than Harry Potter at the box office, simply because of it's fifty-year-in-the-making fanbase. It also won't hurt that the films look like they've been well done, from what we've seen so far.
The point is, there's not really a purpose in arguing against Lord Of The Rings or Harry Potter when discussing box office grosses. I think pretty much a lot of the same people will be seeing both, certainly every person who's a fan of fantasy will.
-Tom
 

Dwayne

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WHAT A WONDERFUL TIME TO BE A MOVIE FAN!!!!!
Regardless of who wins, it looks like all three films (not including ATOC) are top notch. Monsters was excellent and exceeded my expectations. I have no doubt that the other two films will do the same.
-Dwayne
[Edited last by Dwayne on November 05, 2001 at 10:26 PM]
[Edited last by Dwayne on November 05, 2001 at 10:27 PM]
 

Hubert

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Geoffrey, are you serious? AOTC will rake in huge amounts of money. And how is 425 million a disappointment? People are clamoring for another SW movies and there's no doubt that it will easily break 350 million again, and may outdo Episode I. There's no doubt that it will outdo Potter, Monsters and LOTR.
[Edited last by Hubert on November 07, 2001 at 12:44 AM]
 

BrianShort

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Hubert: People also said Episode 1 would beat Titanic's record...
As to my prediction, I think all 3 will do really well :) But I do think Potter will make more than LOTR does. I'm looking forward to LOTR more, or course, but Potter is a close 2nd.
Brian
 

Pete_w

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Harry Potter...$200M...????....double it and you might be closer..buzz is incredible as are advance ticket sales..IMHO it may come close to Titanic type numbers.
 

Geoffrey_A

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There's no doubt that it will outdo Potter, Monsters and LOTR.
I have no doubt it will beat Monsters Inc. I think HP and LOTR are closer bets. The thing is, AOTC is coming out in the summer, beginning of the blockbuster season. AOTC isn't going to have the unchallenged run that LOTR is going to have. AOTC will do major bank, but I don't think it's going to do TPM kind of bank, and it's certainly not a sure thing that it will beat HP or LOTR.
------------------
Geoff
Now with Kung-Fu grip and realistic facial hair!
lotrsig.jpg
 

AdamW

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Monsters, Inc is well on its way to the 100 million dollar gross mark. Harry Potter will likely do the best out of the three, simply because... well, its Harry Potter. Lord of the Rings, however, may be the best movie out of the three.
Gross Predictions:
Monsters, Inc- $187 million
Harry Potter- $307 million
Lord of the Rings- $212 million

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Adam Wilson
Back to the Future on DVD in: 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002!
[email protected]




[Edited last by AdamW on November 07, 2001 at 02:37 PM]
 

Todd Harlan

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How about the odds! Intertops

Simply select whether you think Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone will tie or break the record of USD 100M in box office takings within the first five days set by The Phantom Menace.
ACNielsen EDI figures will be used to determine the winners.
  • Yes it will take USD 100M in five days or less 1.5
  • No it won't take USD 100M in five days or less 2.5
Simply select whether you think Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone will earn over or under USD 30M in US box office takings on the opening day (November 16).
ACNielsen EDI figures will be used to determine winners.
  • OVER USD 30m on the first day at the US box office 1.8333
  • UNDER USD 30m on the first day at the US box office 1.8333
Simply select whether you think Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone will break the opening box office record of USD 72.1M set by The Lost World : Jurrasic Park II.
ACNielsen EDI figures will be used to determine the winners
  • YES it will break the opening box office record 1.4444
  • NO it won't break the opening box office record 2.75
Simply select whether you think Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone will earn over or under USD 78,500,000 in US box office takings on the opening weekend (November 16 to 19).
ACNielsen EDI figures will be used to determine winners.
  • OVER USD 78.5M in takings 1.8333
  • UNDER USD 78.5M in takings 1.8333
Simply select whether you think Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone or The Fellowship of the Ring will have the highest grossing opening box office weekend in the US.
ACNielsen EDI figures will be used to determine the winners. Closing Date: Nov 16, 2001 00:00
  • Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone1.5882
  • The Fellowship of the Ring (+ USD 10M)2.3
[Edited last by Todd Harlan on November 07, 2001 at 09:44 PM]
 

Steven_V

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Mar 10, 2001
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As of this post, the poll on CNN now reads:
Are you excited about the new HP film?
76% YES (23,613 votes)
24% NO (7,404 votes)
icon14.gif

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