What's new

Okay - which will get the biggest box office - HP, LOTR or Monsters Inc? (1 Viewer)

Seth Paxton

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Nov 5, 1998
Messages
7,585
Monsters just won't be playing in the same ballpark as the other 2, if for no other reason than the timing. Monsters gets dumped on by Harry, but FOTR and Harry each have their own holiday space without overlapping heavily.
Both of these films is going to make a ton of cash, just look at the Grinch numbers for example. Both films will AT LEAST make that kind of dough. But if both are as good as has been claimed so far, then both will do Star Wars ANH type business. Sept 11 is putting people in the right frame of mind to want to see films like these as well.
Plus, if the Mummy can make so much money with IT'S action sequences, think what Moria will do for FOTR once word starts getting out. People may not care about the books (but lots of people do), but everyone loves big action sequences in a family friendly holiday film.
$350 million for each of them...Monsters in the $150 million range.
 

Neil Joseph

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Jan 16, 1998
Messages
8,332
Real Name
Neil Joseph
Monsters Inc if McDonalds put their toys in every happy meal.
------------------
Link Removed
15354t.jpg

------------------
My Favourite Movie
[Edited last by Neil Joseph on October 27, 2001 at 01:17 AM]
 

Adam_S

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Feb 8, 2001
Messages
6,316
Real Name
Adam_S
Harry Potter with 400 million plus gross and a spot in the top five, at least until spielberg one ups him by releasing a new film called ET :p.
end of year grosses
Harry potter 320 mil
Monsters 175 mil
LOTR 160 mil
overall grosses
Harry Potter 405 mil
LOTR 360 mil
MOnsters 180 mil
too bad we're no longer considering gangs of new york, but at the same tiem it makes me happy because i can: 1 see lotr more times that weekend, and 2. it doesn't take away from lotr's thunder opening week.
i'd really love to see lotr do the numbersw i'm suggested, but i'd be happy with it breaking one fifty. Let's all hold our breathes that it doesn't flop, because worst case scenario is LOTR flops, New Line folds, Warner buys them out, Warner cuts the second and third installments completely ruining them, which also make no money
frown.gif

just to mix things up, how do you all see the sequels of HP and LOTR playing out, boxoffice wise? Will they surpass the first one? or will there be a great disparity in their respective grosses?
 

andrew markworthy

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Sep 30, 1999
Messages
4,762
Interesting arguments, guys. Just to expand on my reasoning:
First, I was thinking on a worldwide scale, rather than just the US receipts. MI is the most likely to appeal because it is based on the lowest common denominator things of colourful comic characters, good animation, and a relatively short running time. Its background is Toy Story and A Bug's Life. [Also, as far as I'm aware, MI doesn't open outside the USA until next year- i.e. after competition from HP has died down]. HP and LOTR are longer, more complex plots and their background are books which have primarily got a middle class fan base only.
Second, a child who goes to see HP is also likely to see MI. But a child who goes to see MI may not necessarily go to see HP. *Relatively* few children will see LOTR.
Third, we've got to move outside our mindset. On HTF, nearly all of us love LOTR and want to see it. But the general public ain't like that (look at the number of pan and scan products sold to see how different from our mindset they are). LOTR is going to appeal to a fairly small, if vociferous and intelligent, fan base. Personally, I can't see it moving beyond that. The remark about wizards is, I think, pertinent. Wizards are acceptable in what is being marketed as primarily (if not solely) a kids' film like HP. J6P (who, let's remember, is who is needed to make a movie a blockbuster) is not going to take kindly to wizards, not to mention elves and dwarves in a film for adults.
Fourth, I did stress that I thought LOTR would be a *relative* flop. I think it will do decent business, but I don't see it outperforming HP and MI.
 

Paul_D

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Jul 28, 2001
Messages
2,048
I think its very difficult in a discussion about a trio of films like these to compare box office predictions and keep conclusions relative. This is without a shadow of a doubt 2 months of releases, with the most staggering potential for box-office gold ever... in history! Now: 1) Harry Potter is obviously very, very popular (as has been stated abundently in earlier posts), and the buzz is really, really strong. This is undoubtedly going to be a major, major money-maker.
Now a lot of people have been looking at the above fact as if it has negative implications for the other two. On the contrary, I think the success of one with feed the success of the others. We've seen what hysteria over an upcoming release can do to other release's success: just look at 'The Mummy' success in the run up to Star Wars. Now we have three movies that a hell of a lot of people are almost hysteric about. I think the only thing that will happen is that they will all do mega-mega business.
The most reasonable prediction I can make is that the following months will be the biggest in box-office history, and will remain that way for decades, and that the success of one will act bel like a snowball - making the others more successful, and the total BO for the trio will spiral up and out of control until sometime around march-april next year when their global/ collective total will be a around $2-2.4 billion!
 

Quint van der Vaart

Second Unit
Joined
May 25, 2001
Messages
331
This is my thought on this matter.
I think Lord Of The Rings will be the number one movie at the boxoffice in the long run.
Ok it's runningtime is quite long but that will not stop this movie (Titanic runningtime was over 3 hours)
If you look in the releases coming after Lord of the rings you'll see that nothing realy spectacular is coming out at
least untill Febuary, that means a clear road for a long time (like Titanic had)
Expect a total gross of around $ 300 Million dollars.
Now Harry Potter will be second because this movie has a very wide audience.
Children will want to watch this movie and untill Lord Of The Rings is released it has no real competition.
Expect Potter to do a total gross of about $ 225 Million Dollars.
Monsters Inc. is nice and will do well also but not as good as the two movies mentioned above.
As it is being released only two weeks before Harry Potter it has no time to earn realy big and will fade away as more movies are being released during Thanksgiving and X-mas.
Expect Monsters to do a total gross of about $ 150 Million
barely.
That's just my thought.
Greetz
------------------
There is another world....The DVD WORLD !!
[Edited last by Quint van der Vaart on October 27, 2001 at 01:29 PM]
 

Joel C

Screenwriter
Joined
Oct 23, 1999
Messages
1,633
$225 million is nowhere near high enough for HP. The Grinch came out the same time last year and made $250+. Potter is way more popular than even Jim Carrey, and the movie is said to be much better.
------------------
Joel
[email protected]
"I've been very lonely in my isolated tower of indecipherable speech."
digitallyOBSESSED
 

ace peterson

Second Unit
Joined
Jun 4, 2001
Messages
340
I'm sticking with LOTR being the box office 'bully.' LOTR has to be the biggest money maker of the 3. All you ever hear is LOTR this, LOTR that. And like a previous post stated, with nothing major coming out for a few months afterwards, it can beef up easily. HP will no doubt be huge as well, but I don't think that all those parents are willing to see it twice!! Which means that most kids won't see it twice. I think tons of people will see LOTR more than once because it is more appealing to them. And since it has a PG13 rating, there will be kids there, too.
LOTR $450 million
HP $300 million
Monsters $150 million
No question, for people who have an interest in box office numbers this will be a very fun ride. I for one am looking forward to it.
Happy viewing!
 

Tom-G

Screenwriter
Joined
Mar 31, 2000
Messages
1,750
Location
Pittsburgh, PA
Real Name
Thomas
LOTR 450 Million?
Wow, that would be mind boggling! I don't believe it will gain that much money, though. It probably won't break 300 million
------------------
As for the bad rap about the characters--hey, I've seen space operas that put their emphasis on human personalities and relationships. They're called "Star Trek" movies. Give me transparent underwater cities and vast hollow senatorial spheres any day. --Roger Ebert on The Phantom Menace
AIM: Aureus91 / DVDs / ICQ: 58566493
 

Chad R

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Jul 14, 1999
Messages
2,183
Real Name
Chad Rouch
Okay, let me put it this way. My wife, sitster-in-law, brother-in-law and nephew will see both 'Mosters Inc.' and 'Harry Potter'. But you couldn't drag them to LOTR.
Historically, fantasy movies of this type ('Star Wars' is not of this type, 'Harry Potter' isn't either) do poorly. Although you may remember it fondly, 'Excalibur' didn't burn up the box-office. Willow, was a relative disappointment for Lucas. Dungeons and Dragons tanked.
I don't think LOTR will tank, but it will not do stellar box office. Heck, Mike DeLuca was already fired for taking this type of gamble (he greenlit the pictures and spent too much on 'Little Nicky'). If it's lucky it'll just touch $200 million. I hope I'm wrong. I love LOTR. But I can't see it reachig $400 million.
 

Jeff Rogers

Second Unit
Joined
Aug 24, 2000
Messages
309
Then there is the possibility that LOTR might not crack 100-150 mil. domestic.
Probably won't happen but there have been some suprises in the industry.
Heres to 300 mil. Cheers
------------------
If I could go back in time, I'd meet Snoopy
 

Rob Gillespie

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Aug 17, 1998
Messages
3,632
I think Potter will make the most $$$ but LOTR will be the most critically acclaimed. I've never read the books (so I might be very wrong) but Potter doesn't seem to have the serious, dark tone of Rings. Plus it's full of kids, which, no matter how talented, is never going to compete with the downright awesome range of thesps to found in the Tolkien adaptation.
I think Rings will walk all over it in terms of mood and acting. Not that the general public give a shit about that.
 

RobertR

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Dec 19, 1998
Messages
10,675
quote: I've never read the books (so I might be very wrong) but Potter doesn't seem to have the serious, dark tone of Rings. [/quote]
Actually, you are wrong, Rob. Harry Potter doesn't have the epic quality of LOTR, but parts of the HP books are VERY dark and serious in tone, ESPECIALLY the chapter dealing with the outcome of the school competition in the latest book, Goblet of Fire (anyone who's read the book knows exactly what I'm talking about--pretty intense stuff, and easily as dark and serious as Frodo facing a Ringwraith--just to give you a clue, action is taken by something called a "soul eater").
And the ending of Goblet of Fire makes it quite clear that there's a MAJOR struggle about to take place between the forces of Good and the forces of Evil.
------------------
[Edited last by RobertR on October 27, 2001 at 06:24 PM]
[Edited last by RobertR on October 27, 2001 at 06:46 PM]
 

Neil N

Stunt Coordinator
Joined
Dec 14, 2000
Messages
109
I've got to agree with those that think Fellowship is in for a relatively (compared to some predictions) disapointing box-office. While I'd love to see it set records, I don't see it happening. It is too easy, as others have pointed out, to get all wrapped up in the euphoria generated on the internet and to assume that everyone else feels this way too.
Monsters, Inc. will do respectable business, but not in the league of Toy Story 1/2 or Harry Potter, which will be the clear winner amongst these three.
Harry Potter - $365 million
Fellowship - $140 million
Monsters, Inc. - $135 million
 

Tom-G

Screenwriter
Joined
Mar 31, 2000
Messages
1,750
Location
Pittsburgh, PA
Real Name
Thomas
Yeah, the trailer for HP seems to target kids.
I'm curious about Lord of the Rings. What happens if the first movie bombs? I highly doubt it will, but if it does, will the other two films still be released? It's my understanding that the footage for all three films was shot at once.
Even though I have never read the books, I'm very excited to see Lord of the Rings. This seems to have the potential for one heck of a fantasy film. I don't stake my enjoyment of any film in box office success, but I'm hoping it kicks enough arse to justify the sequels being released.
------------------
As for the bad rap about the characters--hey, I've seen space operas that put their emphasis on human personalities and relationships. They're called "Star Trek" movies. Give me transparent underwater cities and vast hollow senatorial spheres any day. --Roger Ebert on The Phantom Menace
AIM: Aureus91 / DVDs / ICQ: 58566493
 

Neil N

Stunt Coordinator
Joined
Dec 14, 2000
Messages
109
Tom - I just don't see any (reasonable) scenario in which the 2nd and 3rd movies don't get released. Most of the investment in them has already been made. I think the (again reasonable) worst case scenario for revenue would still make finishing and releasing the 2nd and 3rd installments a foregone conclusion.
As for the books, for yourself and others that haven't read them yet, do so immediately! Just be sure to start with The Hobbit. (And don't forget the Harry Potter books if you haven't read them yet either!)
 

Danny Knapp

Stunt Coordinator
Joined
Aug 14, 2001
Messages
99
Ummm...Lord of the Rings I predict will be the biggest movie of the year. It just looks so good and so well made compared to Harry Potter and Monsters Inc. Now...having said that I believe Harry Potter and Monsters Inc will defintely be big winners, but LotR will surpass them both.
It's just my gut feeling...
------------------
I dislike Tom Green!
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Forum statistics

Threads
356,814
Messages
5,123,697
Members
144,184
Latest member
H-508
Recent bookmarks
0
Top