Okay - which will get the biggest box office - HP, LOTR or Monsters Inc?

andrew markworthy

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I'm going to make a guess that it'll be Monsters Inc and that Harry Potter will do well enough to merit a set of sequels. I have a gut feeling that LOTR will be a relative flop. I'll be really pleased to be disproved about the last point (indeed I wish all three movies well), but I've a feeling that once the hardcore element have seen it, you won't get J6P going to see 'some old hippy film where they talk funny', no matter how good the special effects, etc.
 

Brad_W

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Why do you think Lord of the Rings will flop? From what I heard everyone wants to see this movie. Harry Potter and Monsters, Inc. are kids movies which means they will do good and get sequels. However, the whole LOTR trilogy is nearly complete and everyone will want to see the first installment. LOTR is a classic novel and what Peter Jackson is doing is living up to that novel, visually.
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Tom-G

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From what I heard everyone wants to see this movie.
Everyone is a bit extreme. My parents don't even know what "Lord of the Rings" is let alone want to see the movie.

I'm really not into box office figures, but I do think that "Lord of the Rings" will do well enough to make it's money back and then some. I doubt if it will eclipse most box office records like a lot of the fans are expecting.
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Sam E. Torres

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i have a feeling monsters, inc. will be the relative flop...this is a year of surprises for people who haven't had one in a while(spielberg with a.i.)...and i have a theory that there comes a point where the streak has to end. the next one to get hit: tom hanks.
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Carlo Medina

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People should not expect LoTR to do phenomenal numbers. Just the running time alone eliminates at least one showing a day at each theater.
It's per-screening numbers should be pretty good, though, and that's what people should pay attention to.
 

Mark Pfeiffer

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Harry Potter is my bet for the biggest. I have the feeling Monsters, Inc. may underperform according to expectations. I liked it but think its the least of Pixar's feature efforts.
 

Joel C

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The way I see it, Monsters, Inc. will do well, but not as well as Shrek (probably around $175 million). Mostly because family dollars will be slurped up by Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, which will be, IMHO, the biggest film of the year.
Lord of the Rings could go either way, but I see it opening huge and then trailing off. There are lots of fans, yes, but I think the books popularity is somewhat skewed when you look at the Internet audience. At my college, the vast majority of people I've talked to didn't know there were books first, and weren't interested in a fantasy movie with "hokey" TV spots. The one friend I have who is really excited to see it is only doing so because she is obsessed with Elijah Wood. Though, on the plus side, it did make her pick up the Hobbit and the trilogy to read.
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Mike Voigt

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I would agree with Mark Pfeiffer: I expect Harry Potter to do best, with Lord of the Rings next, and Monsters, Inc. least...
Reason: HP has a huge fan base to tap into, kids and adults equally. It will take some time to exhaust that supply of moviegoers, and there will be a lot of repeat viewing.
LOTR is one of those that will be viewed a few times, not as much as HP, and by less people. Frankly, the storyline of the books is far more involved than HP (naturally; different audience) and thus will tend to appeal to a smaller audience as well on the Big Screen.
Personally, Monsters, Inc. has the least appeal, hence it goes to the bottom!

Mike
 

AdrianJ

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Harry Potter and Monsters, Inc. are kids movies which means they will do good and get sequels.
I really don't see Harry Potter as a kid's movie. Also, the box office for Harry Potter will not dictate whether it has a sequel or not. My understanding is that the sequel is in preproduction and will begin shooting soon. I was intrigued to see that Kenneth Branagh will be in it.
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Adrian Jones
 
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People should not expect LoTR to do phenomenal numbers. Just the running time alone eliminates at least one showing a day at each theater.
The same argument was made when Titanic can out, but it didn't seem to have too much trouble.

I certainly think(and hope)that Harry Potter and The Fellowship of the Ring will do very well at the box office.
Based on the past success of Pixar's films, I would say Monster's Inc. is going to be a big hit also.
Just my $0.02
WiGgLe

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Marshall Alsup

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I am gunning for LOTR. I hope this movie will make a profit so that they will release the sequals. I have the feeling that it will be huge though. As for HP. I love the books. I think the movie will be bigger than LOTR simply because kids like to go to the movies more than adults do. I cant wait to see this one. As for Monsters.inc, I'm not sure. I didn't even hear of it until I read about it on HTF. However, based on Shreks success, I'm sure it'll do fine.
Marshall
 

Joel Mack

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Monsters, Inc.
Why? Running time. With HP and LOTR both weighing in at 2:30 or more, MI gets nearly twice the shows in the same amount of time...
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Brennan Hill

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No doubt in my mind. Well, very little anyway.
1. Harry Potter
2. Fellowship of the Ring
3. Monsters Inc.
1. As a parent of a child who's obsessed with the Harry Potter series, and as a fan myself, I can hardly imagine a single movie-going family with school age kids in the country that will not go see the Harry Potter movie. I don't think there has ever been a series of books more popular with kids and adults alike then Harry Potter. Not Lord of the Rings, the Oz books, Narnia, etc. Then you have the adult appeal of the books which is considerable as well. To top it all off, it's already got a favorable review from Ron.
2. That said, I myself am a bigger fan of the Lord of the Rings trilogy, and am expecting/hoping that these movies far surpass Harry Potter, but they are not as accessible to kids as Harry Potter is. A movie doesn't have to have kids appeal to succeed of course, but I doubt women are going to be clamoring to see FOTR like they did for Titanic. Moms will be clamoring to see Harry Potter.
3. Monsters Inc will surely do well, but it doesn't have a chance against the legions of fans of the above book series', and its not a giant leap forward like Toy Story.
-B
[Edited last by Brennan Hill on October 26, 2001 at 05:08 PM]
 

Jeff Rogers

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Herry Potter all the way. Why?
Harry has sold over 100 million copies in RECENT years. Thats probably 100 million different people. You know at least everyone who has read the book will go. Not to mention their parents, friends, and people such as myself who have not read the books but will see the movie. At least 350 million domestic take for HP.
Monsters inc will do brisk buisness just b/c it's from the "creators of Toy Story". But you know what? It aint Toy Story. 195 mil tops.
Now to my personal favorite. LOTR. As much as I'm drooling over this one I have a bad feeling about its performance. I guess it boils down to--the people I know who even have a vaugue sense of what it is, want to see it. But there are A LOT of people out there who have no freaking clue what it is.
My parents don't even know what it is. I constantly poll people that I know regarding what they want to see, what they've heard about and what they like. About more than half say they have no idea what LOTR is. Not good for the movie thats supposed to break all records......
I've even had someons say. "oh..yeah......thats the movie with theg uy with the funny hat!!"
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Chad R

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Harry Potter is the clear winner. As for second that's tougher. I can only see Monsters Inc. doing the same type of numbers as 'A Bug's Life' which are good, but not Toy Story figures. Not to mention a majority of its audience will be clipped by Potter.
But, I have to agree with the possiblity that LOTR will do less than expected. It's core audience is very vocal on the interent when it comes to filling out polls on USA Today and such, but as far the general audience it doesn't track that well. It's just not as accessible, and far too many people think wizards and such are for geeks and will stay away. Fantasy movies have not historically performed well. I think it'll do okay, but not especially well.
 

Sean Bryan

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"I hope this movie will make a profit so that they will release the sequals."
Ummm.......I don't think we really have to worry about that.
They are filming all three movies back to back as one big production. The second and third installments are already filmed.
They will be released regardless of how the first film performs. That is part of the beauty in the deal that was struck to do these films. Not one big film, not two combo-films, but three films for three books.....all done in one big production.
So I hope they do well, but it really doesn't matter if what you are worried about is box office performance affecting whether the next two will be made. So just relax and enjoy them.
Sean
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Sean Bryan

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"and far too many people think wizards and such are for geeks and will stay away."
Well, if you want to use that argument, what does that say about Harry Potter? Wizards anyone? Here's a crazy thought. Maybe the release of Harry Potter will actually spark an interest in wizard/fantasy type stories that "The Fellowship of the Ring" will do better than it would have had harry Potter not been released.
Sean
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Ken_McAlinden

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They will each get $16 from my wife & I. Monsters Inc. will get an extra $5.50 from my 5 year old daughter. So Monsters Inc. wins the McAlinden Box Office championship.
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Matthew Chmiel

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Harry Potter
Gross: $275 million
The Fellowship of the Ring
Gross: $225 million
Monsters, Inc.
Gross: $140 million
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