OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (1 Viewer)

[Eric Franklin]

According to Brandon over at Boxoffice Mojo, New Line never releases estimates during the week and only releases actuals on Fridays (for Mon-Thurs) and Monday (for Fri-Sun).

Just wanted to get that out there.

 

[Seth Paxton]

GONY is in trouble obviously. The theater was pretty empty today when we went.

I guess GONY is going to end up being what people thought Titanic was going to be, the expensive production, much delayed, ends up tanking. It's a pretty good film, though also too violent for big money.

 

[Eric Franklin]

TTT actuals for this week. From Reelsource.com

12/23 - $13,509,942

12/24 - $7,790,050

12/25 - $12,381,307

12/26 - $15,455,171

Total $151,182,682

 

[Malcolm R]

Hmmmm. I was going to predict $200M by the New Year, but didn't want to get laughed at by all the conservative TTT prognosticators in this thread. Though perhaps I should revise my original $330M total upward?
I still haven't seen it BTW, so there's 4-5 more admissions it has yet to take in.

 

[Dave Mansell]

I believe, that that $49.13m mon-thur total is the largest weekday gross ever, beating the $45m mon-thur total of ID4.

With weekend projections in the range $45-$47m TTT should pass $200m on either sunday or monday.

 

[Matt Stone]

That is indeed very impressive.
BTW, no Seth...I'm not laying down any laserdisc eating predictions this time, I'm still having indigestion over the Spidey debacle
I may have predicted ~305, but I'm certainly hoping it goes higher. I'm probably going to go for a Catch Me If You Can/TTT double dip tomorrow, so I'll be doing my part

 

[Kami]

Just thought I'd chime in and say that I was at my 6th viewing of TTT today at a 3pm show and it was 100% sold out! The 2pm show was also sold out (the one we planned on going to originally)

I think we're looking at another strong weekend!

 

[Matt Stone]

New estimates are coming in, they now have TTT at $13.07 and Catch Me...at $10 million.

Reminds me of FOTR and Ali last year. Looks like LOTR will once again be "the" film to see over the holidays. Any predictions as to consecutive weeks on top? BHD shut it down last year...I wonder who will this time.

 

[Lou Sytsma]

What's the next big release? DD on Feb 14th? Unless CMIYC and/or GONY pick up steam - TTT could be in the #1 slot for awhile.

 

[Malcolm R]

I was surprised that most films saw an increase from Wednesday to Thursday. Myself, I had to go back to work, but there must be a lot of people that have time off.

That said, does it mean anything that "Catch Me If You Can" was the only film in the Top 10 that experienced a decrease from Wed to Thu?

 

[Seth Paxton]

I think Catch Me will have pretty good legs, and then we start dropping in stuff like About Schmidt, Adaptation, Antwone Fisher and the box office will start to get chipped away.
I think the Chicago buzz and the residual feel-good emotions about musicals left over from Moulin Rouge will make Chicago a good candidate for a strong opening. By the end of JAN it should have worked up a decent amount of hype.
But there is no Black Hawk Down on the horizon either (like FOTR had to face). GONY is a lot like Ali was last year, Catch Me looks to be the Ocean's 11 with a slight shift. TTT doesn't seem to face any more, and perhaps less, competition than FOTR did. And it opened with a lot more interest.
Looks like the faithful will be validated in the end.
Remember these 2 "rules" (which I said were bullshit) that everyone threw out this last year:
1) Sequels of blockbusters DO NOT make more money than the original
2) Sequels of non-Oscar winning films DO NOT get best pix noms
Both of those look to have at least 50/50 chances of happening now. Of course both of those rules have very little data behind them as the situation of a good sequel to an award-caliber blockbuster almost never happens.

 

[Matt Pelham]

Probably due to the face that it was the only movie that opened on Wednesday, and probably experienced a slightly bloated total due to mild "rush-out."

Very impressed with Two Towers numbers so far, it should have in the high $190's after this weekend.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "The Two Towers" $15.0 million ($166.2 million)

#2 "Catch Me If You Can" $10.1 million ($28.9 million)

#3 "Two Weeks Notice" $5.2 million ($32.7 million)

#4 "Maid in Manhatten" $4.3 million ($48.8 million)

#5 "Gangs of New York" $3.5 million ($22.5 million)

#6 "Drumline" $2.8 million ($31.3 million)

#7 "The Wild Thornberrys" $2.7 million ($13.8 million)

#8 "Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets" $2.1 million ($236.0 million)

#9 "The Hot Chick" $1.6 million ($19.0 million)

#10 "Die Another Day" $1.4 million ($143.8 million)

 

[Matt Pelham]

TTT Friday estimates:

Reelsource: $15.05 million

BoxOfficeMojo: $15.4 million

Showbiz data: $15.95 million

either way those are great numbers, and if it followed a similar 2nd weekend pattern as FOTR, that would yield a weekend of $46.5, $47.6, and $49.3, respectively

 

[Dennis Pagoulatos]

Seth's probably right...

TTT will probably make more money that FOTR, which does break rule #1.

And it will get Oscar nominations (at the very least the technical categories, which does also break rule #2!) but AOTC hands down deserves the Visual Effects Award this year...they made some of those shots look deceptively easy to do (by how seamless they appear)

If things were fair...(not that they ever are come Academy Awards time!)

ILM wins for AOTC Visual Effects

Skywalker Sound wins for AOTC Sound Effects Editing & Sound

WETA Workshop wins for TTT Costume Design

TTT wins for Art Direction

TTT wins for Cinematography

-Dennis

 

[Chris Harvey]

I disagree about ILM and AOTC... though I'm a huge ILM fan, and know folks who work there, I feel their AOTC work was hit-and-miss. Some of it was superlative, some of it surprisingly shoddy (check out the Tusken Raiders' "dogs" chewing on their bones).

Weta deserves outstanding kudos not merely for MASSIVE and Helm's Deep, but particularly for Gollum, who I found to be head and shoulders better than any CG creature before him.

 

[Dalton]

Completely agree about Gollum Chris. He was far better than anything ILM put out in AOTC(which i liked, not loved). Saw TTT again and it was another packed house. This film is doing some great business. Could break $325 Million.

 

[Sean Laughter]

Have to agree, AOTC was considerably hit-or-miss. The diner scene comes to mind immediately as something that stood out as completely fake to me. Not to mention that the only reason half of the CG creatures didn't look completely fake is because most of the sets were CG too.
Anyway, back to the topic, the TTT numbers are really good. So who was the first to call a bigger BO for TTT than FOTR? Not that it has actually happened yet of course, but still

 

[Patrick Sun]

Well, I said TTT would underperform FOTR's domestic box office take. It will be interesting to see if it can take in over $315 million or so.

 

[Kami]

Interesting to go back in time....this what I said on the first page of this thread back in April...

LOTR: TTT: $320m - Everyone who even remotely enjoyed the first will see it, those who hated it because of the ending will most likely see it when they find out the story continues. Not only that, but many new LOTR fans are being created after the first movie. How long have the books been on the top 10 best sellers list? Quite a while, especially after the movie came out. This is going to create a whole new breed of fanatics who will most likely see it multiple times. I wouldn't be surprised if TTT could pull out $350m when all is said and done. This movie is going to be huge. Don't even get me started about the dramatic closing to the story in 2003, but that's another whole thread.

:b