Serenity (2005) (3 Viewers)

[Robert Anthony]

Can't wait for the DVD to come out in 4 - 6 months!?!?!

I'd give it 2-3, looking at the Box Office. They could, feasibly, have this thing out in time for the holiday season if this 2nd weekend drops like people are predicting. It might be out of theaters 3rd week of October.

This risk of Universal's looks like it's going to bite em in the ass, (although I loved the movie) and if they feel like taking any more risks--why not risk just releasing future Serenity movies STRAIGHT to video. Whedon made the Firefly pilot on 10 million..sure, it'd be risky, but I think it'd be a safer bet to let Whedon run a string of 15-20 million DTV movies than to strike the prints and blitz the advertising for the theatrical release that won't return enough on the investment.

I really liked the movie, and I really like the universe, and I think this might be one of the few ways it can continue from here.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Finished the show last night, and saw the movie tonight. I guess it's good that I saw the movie with the BO specter over it. I knew I was likely watching the end, not a new beginning So I remembered to say goodbye to a quality universe.
I'll pop a review in tomorrow, but I really enjoyed the film. It brought some of the bad-Whedon in, but kept all the good stuff and great stuff that makes up for it.
A few brief thoughts:
1) Jewel looks better with the weight. She really does. It fills out her face and makes her smile bigger.
2) Shame about Book. His backstory was as intriguing to me as anyones. Prior Operative?
3) Ejiofor had great presence. With the exception of the beginning of the big space battle (where they forgot how smart and perceptive he was), his scenes were all good.
4) I was extremely impressed with Summer's fight scenes. Clearly, Joss has seen Equilibrium, as he poached the best elements and made them really, really work. They were poetry to watch. Must be something about dancers...
5) Kudos to Nathan Fillion.
6) And kudos to the first time theatrical director. The film looked good.
More in the review tomorrow. Got to let it simmer.
Take care,
Chuck
And quick complaints:
- Shouldn't flying through Reaver ships be LIVING HELL on a psychic
- How did the guy "go Reaver" in the early TV episode...since Reavers are the product of a chemical breakdown????
- Simon seemed more "matinee" in the film than the show. Could be a product of the missing time.

 

[Brandon Conway]

I don't see any evidence of a big dropoff this coming weekend (over 45%). In fact, with word of mouth as positive as it is, I would think a low dropoff is possible. I know I'm seeing it again - and this time I'm getting 8+ people to go with me.

 

[Robert Anthony]

This movie is dropping like a rock, man. Which sucks ass, no doubt, but it's dying on the vine, Land of the Dead style. which, by the way, was another movie I really liked.

Even mildly successful movies make more on their opening Saturday than they do on the opening Friday, and they typically make about as much on Sunday as they do on Friday, if not a LITTLE bit more. They drop pretty far on Monday, because it's Monday, but pick right back up on Tuesday.

This movie has made less money than the previous day (by a pretty decent amount) every day it's been out. The numbers up at Box Office Mojo make this look like it might actually do WORSE for Universal than Land of the Dead did. An argument I've read at another board states that if they swapped release dates, both movies might have more closely approached the 50-60 million range before dropping out of theaters. Critical reviews and word of mouth ARE good--but it seems people just don't want to watch a sci-fi/western "cult phenomenon" with the weird ads. Which, by the way, Universal's pretty much dropped. Word of mouth had BETTER be good, because that's all the advertising this movie's going to get for the rest of it's run.

 

[Travis_S]

Yep, I saw the writing on the wall when they shifted the release date from April to now. At least we got a cool movie, and eventually a dvd out of it. I mean, the fact that this movie even exists is insane. So I'm looking on the bright side for now.

 

[Greg.K]

Yeah, this movie was quite a longshot to begin with. Be happy that it even exists at all, and that it provides at least some closure for fans.

I can't think of any kind of compelling reason for Universal to make a followup Serenity movie, but I'd certainly watch it if they did.

 

[Robert Anthony]

Same here. Like Chuck said, I'm sure this movie actually plays a little bit better as an ENDING rather than a hopeful beginning. When I see it again, I know that's how I'll be looking at it.

 

[Will_B]

Y'know, I had a comment here, but this monday morning quarterbacking about how next weekend will do, before Friday even has started, is just absurd.

 

[Brandon Conway]

Well, Universal blew it big time. That's the only reason this film is failing financially - something that should not have happened for a film with such a modest budget.

There are only three general reasons why a film fails financially:

1) "Artsy" and perceptively limited in audience appeal (Americans don't like subtitles, don't like "serious" movies, etc.)

2) The movie sucks.

3) The movie is poorly/inappropriately managed/advertized.

Only the latter fully applies. There is some of #1 in there, but it's mostly negligible (although I've convinced a lot of people to go with me on my next viewing, some just don't want to see anything from "that idiot who made that crappy Buffy", even after I tell them I've never seen a frame of Buffy and yet love Firefly/Serenity). Anyway, it's really almost entirely #3. Just goes to show that, for the most part, Americans need to be told what is good by the advertizing, by having a name, actor or franchise, tie-in. Americans are too unwilling to take chances on something new/different.

So, instead of even Dukes of Hazzard numbers ($80 million), we get one of the best pure FUN films of the year tanking. With the Digital Bits already putting the DVD release date as 12/20/05 in their Rumor Mill.

I haven't been this disgusted with a film's box office performance in years. It hurts. It hurts bad. And now it'll always hurt bad because of the idiots out there that will say "Dude, that film made no money, so it sucks."

And I just get angrier and angrier with every passing day.

 

[Will_B]

Look, they planned for this film to be a word-of-mouth film. The first weekend was the fan base - which as expected weighed more heavily in on Friday - opening day - since they (and I!) wanted to see it as soon as possible. Now it is whether week two starts attracting people from word of mouth.

I don't even watch tv, but since there's a small tv that is sometimes on as my housemates cook dinner, I can say that I must have seen the Jodie Foster Flightplan movie preview a couple dozen times already. I've never seen any ads for Serenity, ever. So I have to assume that was intentional, that they were going to rely upon word-of-mouth.

I have been hearing good word of mouth here, and from friends, and from people on other message boards. I believe this film may appear be dropping out of 2nd place this weekend, but I think it will hold steady for a 3rd as people start to check it out. I give it four weeks in theatres (first run) total, or about, oh, maybe $35 million U.S. Add in Australia and Europe and that'll be double. Still short of the hoped for $80 million? Maybe, but since they had such a small advertising sink-hole, it may be a profitable film for Universal. I think we'll see a pair of sequels, especially when DVD sales are considered.

 

[Sam Favate]

Yes, I think DVD sales will decide the fate of future movies in this series.

 

[Chris S]

I don't know that I would totally blame Universal for all the box office problems. They did try a new marketing approach with this film (this was well documented in lots of publications) and it does appear to have failed. I do agree that if it was released in April or May that it would have easily made 50-60 million, there is no doubt about that. But Universal knew they would atleast break even after DVD sales so there was no real incentive for them NOT to try something new. And if it had worked we would be calling it genius. Heck, I really thought it was going to work.

But then again, even though we love this show/movie, maybe its just not for everyone. Maybe its just "too weird" for the general public to try out. I know my family doesn't get it no matter how much I try to convince them.

I'll be seeing it again this weekend and continue to encourage family/friends/enemies/hampsters/livestock/anyone to see it as well.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I have seen quite a bit of tunnel vision of late. While the psychology of it is fairly astounding and interesting, many of the conclusions and rationalizations are faulty.

1) $10M, 40% dropoff = $22M after 4 weeks. And 40% is a GREAT number. Like Spidey and SW, I don't think it's a 50/50 domestic/international film. It's very "American". I think 60/40 is more realistic. So I *think* $80M overall is a pipedream. I think $50M is closer. It will be perceived as a BO failure. There aren't enough hardcore fans in the world to change that. I say this with no glee. It's a sober observation.

2) I agree the DVD sales will push it into the black rather easily. I hold out some small measure of hope for Sci-Fi original movies or maybe even DTV movies. Firefly will not see the big screen again. Frankly, given the choice, I'd rather Sci-Fi make a series out of it over movies. I prefer more time with the characters...more breathing room.

3) We got the feature film. It didn't click with the mainstream. A huge chunk of that CAN be laid on the advertising campaign. I saw a lot of ads, but they told no story. Frankly, the cult aspect HURT the film tremendously. I love Buffy and Angel. There is no need to sell it fans of Whedon. No need to sell it as a successful TV show. That hurt a lot as well. People ALREADY felt out of the loop.

Brandon, I understand your frustration (expressed here and elsewhere), but you've got to let it go. You are allowing your emotional attachment to the series to be impacted by it's finances and mainstream appeal. That's a huge mistake, and you'll be a lot happier divesting yourself of that burden. I felt the same for a brief period of time regarding a few films, most notably The Matrix Revolutions, which is used a common punchline by plenty of folks. But I simply don't care. I got a great film that works beautifully for me. That's a gift. Whether others like it or not, insult it or not, demean it or not, is irrelevant. And to be bluntly honest, much better films have been treated much worse than Serenity. It's a fun movie with characters that are well-drawn (in the show; when I finally review it, I'll discuss the numerous characters that were ignored in the film), good action, and a decent theme. It's not a masterpiece, it's not even Joss' best work. Consider it a love letter to the fans.

I have seen a lot of messengers shot at this week. Celebrate the movie, don't mourn it's BO. Who cares if the mainstream didn't get it? Why the emotional investment in other people's time and money?

Take care,

Chuck

 

[Ruz-El]

I saw this opening night, but didn't have a chance to post. My friend was a huge fan of the show, where as I've always been less than impressed by Joss in general, I don't think he's a hack, I know he's a talented story teller, just doesn't work for me as well as to others. He had me watch the series befor going. I liked the series, but didn't love it. It didn't start to get truely interesting to me until the last 4 episodes, with "Objects" clearly being the bet of the show. I think this is manly why fans are so passionate about it, it got canceled just as it was getting good. The series on a whole was not great, just good genre stories (original to a point with the whole space western thing be realized in a believable way.) with the final 4 seeming to really dive and play arpound with the established characters.
So the movie: I loved it, I easily rank it as one of the best sci-fi films I've seen. It was fun, intense, had good character moments, a general blast of a film that didn't play dumb to the audience, but played aas naturally as the series did. I do think that Joss made it in such a way that you don't have to see the series to enjoy it, but i can't help but think a lot of moments would be lost if you didn't, particularly Shepard. If you hadn't seen the previous shows, in the movie, he's basically an old guy they hide out with, who gets killed, as opposed to a mysterious man of God with a past. It's a real shame that more people don't seem to be going to this, it's deffenately going to do big numbers on DVD, and with the tv series priced under $30, I can see the potential for a Family Guy type ressurection.
I have to agree with other posters about the marketing. I've only seen one tv commercial for this, and it made it look like a chick fight flick. I had heard it got bumped from the spring, and figured it was due to the typical studio medling from test screening, maybe getting recut or something, but from the above poster, it sounds more like some marketing experiment. What exactly was the plan?
Again, a great movie, a great end to the series, and a good continuation if they get to make more.

 

[ThomasC]

Ejiofor had great presence. With the exception of the beginning of the big space battle (where they forgot how smart and perceptive he was), his scenes were all good.

His character was overconfident at times. Inara's room and the final fight with Mal are two examples. Just when he's about to strike, he's given a surprising blow. It's the same situation with the space battle. How could he have possibly predicted that the Reavers would be following Serenity? The radar couldn't pick it them all up until they got out of the clouds.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Which is why it's out of character at that moment. He knows Mal isn't (that) stupid. And yet he believes the very brief feint. I wouldn't expect him to know Reavers were behind them (though he should have noticed Serenity didn't look the same as before), but I would expect him to be curious about Mal's actions. They didn't fit with previous ones. It didn't fit, for me, with the character they had established before. Joss did it for the "F*** YEAH!!" moment when the Reaver ships come out ("take that, bad guy!"). It just rubbed me the wrong way. It's not the first time Joss "cheats" his characters a bit for a crowd-pleasing moment.

Take care,

Chuck

 

[Andy Sheets]

There are only three general reasons why a film fails financially:

1) "Artsy" and perceptively limited in audience appeal (Americans don't like subtitles, don't like "serious" movies, etc.)

2) The movie sucks.

3) The movie is poorly/inappropriately managed/advertized.

I'd say there's a fourth reason, which is that "Joe Sixpack" has a dvd player and is wise to dvd release patterns. I mean, in my workplace, for instance, I hear this same conversation any time the subject of going to the movies comes up: "Considering what Hollywood is releasing nowadays, is it really worth paying out the ass to see something that I can watch in more comfort and for less money at home in three months? HELL NO!!!" Every single time. It's just getting harder and harder to pry people out of their homes for a theatrical movie.

It's not like Serenity was the only movie that underperformed this week - Flightplan, despite being #1 again isn't exactly burning up the charts. A couple of years ago a movie with a solid budget might have been guaranteed at least $20 million at opening but that's not the case anymore and I think the saturation of the dvd market has a lot to do with it.

 

[CharlesD]

Given the show's history I agree we're very lucky to have this excellent film at all, and it does provide a decent ending to the story.

I think the reviews of the movie may have actually hurt it! Sure they're mostly good reviews but most of them make a big deal about the "canceled cult TV show" its based on and/or go on & on about "Joss".

I watched and liked Firefly from the start so the "cult TV" thing obviously didn't bother me, but if I hadn't I could easily see it being a big detraction. People are going to assume (even though the reviews say otherwise) that the movie will only appeal to the people who have seen the TV show, or they'll think that show can't be that good if it got canceled.

 

[MickeS]

I thought it fit great with the character of the Operative as he was established. They had shown him being overconfident before, and that his (only?) weakness was his arrogance. I got the feeling that he figured that Mal would be up to something, but that it really didn't matter, because a) he believed the Alliance fleet could take out whatever Mal had up his sleeve anyway, and b)Mr Universe's equipment was destroyed so even if there was a remote chance that Mal made it through, it would be of no use at that time, and the Alliance could deal with them again in a little bit. There was no way he could have expected that Mal would have anything as powerful and relentless as a whole fleet of Reavers with him, so the scene worked great for me.

 

[CharlesD]

Serenity DVD on 12/20?
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/rumormill.html#1006
If so it will further hurt box office as the short wait will encourage people to skip seeing it in the theater.