*** Official 2004 Academy Award Prediction Thread (1 Viewer)

[Robert Montoya]

Here are my predictions for what will and should win


BEST PICTURE
Will Win: THE AVIATOR
Should win: MILLION DOLLAR BABY or SIDEWAYS


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will Win: Jamie Foxx - RAY
Should win: Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Should win: Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will Win: Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Should win: Hilary Swank -MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Should win: Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will win: THE INCREDIBLES
Should win: THE INCREDIBLES


DIRECTING
Will Win: Clint Eastwood for MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Should win: Clint Eastwood for MILLION DOLLAR BABY

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: THE SEA INSIDE
Should win: THE CHORUS


WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Will win: SIDEWAYS
Alternate: SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Will Win: ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
Should Win: ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

 

[Micheal]

My choices of who will win are in bold.


BEST PICTURE
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways

BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
Taylor Hackford - Ray
Mike Leigh - Vera Drake
Alexander Payne - Sideways
Martin Scorcese - The Aviator

BEST ACTOR
Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx - Ray
I would be thrilled to see Clint steal this one.

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening - Being Julia
Catalina Sandeno Moreno - Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake
Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Alda - The Aviator
Thomas Haden Church - Sideways
Jamie Foxx - Collateral
Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen - Closer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett - The Aviator
Laura Linney - Kinsey
Virginia Madsen - Sideways
Sophie Okonedo - Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman - Closer

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of The Spotless Mind
Hotel Rwanda
The Incredibles
Vera Drake

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Before Sunset
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries
Sideways

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Born Into Brothels
The Story of the Weeping Camel
Super Size Me
Tupac: Resurrection
Twist of Faith

ANIMATED FILM
The Incredibles
Shark Tale
Shrek 2

ART DIRECTION
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Aviator
House of Flying Daggers
The Passion of the Christ
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement

COSTUME DESIGN
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Ray
Troy

FILM EDITING
The Aviator
Collateral
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray

MAKEUP
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion of the Christ
The Sea Inside

MUSIC (SCORE)
Finding Neverland
Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion of the Christ
The Village

MUSIC (SONG)
"Accidentally In Love" - Shrek 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - The Motorcycle Diaries
"Believe" - The Polar Express
"Learn To Be Lonely" - The Phantom of the Opera
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - The Chorus

SOUND EDITING
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Spider-Man 2

SOUND MIXING
The Aviator
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Ray
Spider-Man 2

VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban
I, Robot
Spider-Man 2

 

[Adam_S]

updated to switch best screenplay prediction from Incredibles to Eternal Sunshine, I've seen more ads for Incredibles Screenplay though, almost all of them featuring Edna Mole. I still wouldn't be surprised at a screenplay win for incredibles being the biggest surprise of the night. I'd intended to change my animated short to Guard Dog since I've seen that one now, and I was pleased to see that I guessed it randomly anyway.

Adam

 

[rich_d]

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Should Win: SIDEWAYS

But I will be happy with either.

Best DIRECTOR
Will Win: Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Should Win: Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will Win: Jamie Foxx - RAY
Should Win: Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Should Win: Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will Win: Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Should Win: Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Should Win: Tie: Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS AND Cate Blanchett: THE AVIATOR

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will win: THE INCREDIBLES
Should win: THE INCREDIBLES

ART DIRECTION
Will win: THE AVIATOR

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: THE AVIATOR

COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: THE AVIATOR

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No idea.

FILM EDITING
Will win: MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Should Win: SIDEWAYS

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
No Idea

MAKEUP
No Idea.

MUSIC (SCORE)
Will Win: THE AVIATOR

MUSIC (SONG)
Will Win: "Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2

SOUND EDITING
Will Win: THE INCREDIBLES

SOUND MIXING
No idea.

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Will win: SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Will Win: ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

 

[Rob Pritchard]

My feelings:

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: MILLION DOLLAR BABY
If it was just the media saying 'it's a lock, it's a lock!' then I'd be sceptical but every pundit I've read who claims to have spoken to the actual voters in and around LA is relaying the same message: its M$B.

DIRECTING
Will Win: Clint Eastwood for MILLION DOLLAR BABY
He's directed arguably the best movie of his career, crtainly the best movie out of those nominated and he's done it at an age (74) when most people have long since retired. I can't entirely discount a win for Marty in this category but I believe the 'overdue' sentiment for Scorsese is far more prevalent amongst the media and Marty's fans than it is amongst Academy members.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will Win: CLINT EASTWOOD
I'm afraid I can't shake the conviction that the Academy is so in love with Eastwood that they will give him this even though everybody else believes Foxx is a lock. I also suspect Jamie's double nom may have proved counterproductive in encouraging voters to go for Clint believing they could make it up to Jamie in the Best Supporting Actor category. If so Jamie's in trouble because ...

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will Win: Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
I think it's Swank's but the reported buzz amongst voters for Imelda Staunton is very strong & an upset is a possibility albeit unlikely. Trouble is though that hardly anyone appears to have seen 'Vera Drake.'

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Yeah, it could be Cate Blanchett but Madsen is bouncing back from a career nightmare of forgettable roles with this warm, likable performance in a little movie that's proved surprisingly popular with just about everybody.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Will win: Paul Haggis - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
'Sidways' comes very close but I think the overall fondness for 'M$B' and the fact that Paul Haggis wrote a terrific script will swing it over the competition.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Will Win: HOTEL RWANDA
I'm not entirely convinced that the Academy has taken the quirky ESOTSM to its collective heart in the way that everyone else has. 'Hotel Rwanda' strikes me as more in line with the Academy's tastes so I'll go with that.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will win: THE INCREDIBLES
IMO, nothing else comes close.

 

[Steve Christou]

Million Dollar Baby fan eh Rob? Nothing would please me more tomorrow night than Martin Scorsese winning Best Director, and I would absolutely love to see movie legend Clint Eastwood win Best Actor over Jamie Foxx. Doesn't look like that's going to happen though, but my fingers are crossed.

 

[Jason Harbaugh]

This year is all over the place. Don't think I'll top the 22 I got right last year. I would be happy to get half that.

Best Picture
MILLION DOLLAR BABY

Best Actor
Jamie Foxx

Best Actress
Hilary Swank

Best Supporting Actor
Morgan Freeman

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett

Best Director
Clint Eastwood

Best Foreign Film
THE SEA INSIDE

Best Screenplay
(written directly for the screen)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

Best Screenplay
(based on material previously produced or published)
SIDEWAYS

Best Animated Feature
THE INCREDIBLES

Best Art Direction
THE AVIATOR

Best Cinematography
THE AVIATOR

Best Sound
THE AVIATOR

Best Sound Effects Editing
SPIDER-MAN 2

Best Editing
MILLION DOLLAR BABY

Best Original Score
FINDING NEVERLAND

Best Original Song
Believe

Best Costume
THE AVIATOR

Best Documentary Feature
BORN INTO BROTHELS

Best Documentary
(short subject)
AUTISM IS A WORLD

Best Make-Up
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS

Best Animated Short Film
RYAN

Best Live Action Short Film
EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST

Best Visual Effects
SPIDER-MAN 2

 

[Patrick_S]

Best Picture
Million Dollar Baby
Directing
Million Dollar Baby
Actor -- Leading
Jamie Foxx
Actor -- Supporting
Morgan Freeman
Actress -- Leading
Hilary Swank
Actress -- Supporting
Cate Blanchett
Animated Feature
The Incredibles
Art Direction
The Aviator
Cinematography
The Aviator
Costume Design
The Aviator
Documentary Feature
Born into Brothels
Documentary Short
Autism is a World
Film Editing
The Aviator
Foreign Language Film
The Sea Inside
Makeup
The Passion of the Christ
Original Score
Harry Potter and The Prisoner of Azkaban
Original Song
Accidentally in Love
Short Film
Ryan
Short Film Live Action
Two cars One Night
Sound Editing
Spider-Man 2
Sound Mixing
Ray
Visual Effects
Spider-Man 2
Screenplay -- adapted
Million Dollar Baby
Screenplay -- Original
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

 

[Paul Anthony]

Best Picture: THE AVIATOR (It will sweep most of the awards)

Best Director: MARTIN SCORSESE

Best Actor: JAMIE FOXX (RAY)

Best Actress: HILARY SWANK (Million Dollar Baby)

Best Supporting Actor: Alan Alda (THE AVIATOR)

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett (THE AVIATOR)

 

[Robert Anthony]

Performance by an actor in a leading role
Jamie Foxx in Ray

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Morgan Freeman in Million Dollar Baby

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Hilary Swank in Million Dollar Baby

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Virginia Madsen in Sideways

Best animated feature film of the year

The Incredibles Brad Bird

Achievement in art direction

The Aviator
Art Direction: Dante Ferretti
Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo

Achievement in cinematography

The Aviator
Robert Richardson

Achievement in costume design

The Aviator
Sandy Powell

Achievement in directing

The Aviator
Martin Scorsese

Best documentary feature

Born into Brothels
Ross Kauffman and Zana Briski

Best documentary short subject

Autism Is a World
Gerardine Wurzburg

Achievement in film editing

Million Dollar Baby
Joel Cox

Best foreign language film of the year

The Sea Inside
Spain

Achievement in makeup

The Passion of the Christ
Keith Vanderlaan and Christien Tinsley

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

The Passion of the Christ John Debney

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

Believe from The Polar Express
Music and Lyric by Glen Ballard and Alan Silvestri

Best motion picture of the year

Million Dollar Baby

Best animated short film

Guard Dog
Bill Plympton

Best live action short film

Wasp
Andrea Arnold

Achievement in sound editing

The Incredibles Michael Silvers and Randy Thom

Achievement in sound mixing

The Incredibles
Randy Thom, Gary A. Rizzo and Doc Kane

Achievement in visual effects

Spider-Man 2 John Dykstra, Scott Stokdyk, Anthony LaMolinara and John Frazier

Adapted screenplay

Sideways
Screenplay by Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor

Original screenplay

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Screenplay by Charlie Kaufman
Story by Charlie Kaufman & Michel Gondry & Pierre Bismuth

 

[Tino]

My Predictions For Tonight’s Academy Awards:

Best Picture
The Aviator

Best Director
Clint Eastwood

Best Actor
Jamie Foxx

Best Actress
Hilary Swank

Best Supporting Actor
Thomas Haden Church

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett

Best Animated Film
The Incredibles

Best Foreign Language Film
The Sea Inside

Best Original Screenplay
Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind

Best Adapted Screenplay
Sideways

Best Film Editing
The Aviator

Best Cinematography
The Passion Of The Christ

Best Original Score
Finding Neverland

Best Song
Believe-The Polar Express

Best Visual Effects
I, Robot

Best Makeup
The Passion Of The Christ

Best Art Direction
The Aviator

Best Costume Design
The Aviator

Best Sound
The Incredibles

Best Sound FX Mixing
The Aviator

Best Documentary Feature
Super Size Me

Best Documentary Short
Sister Rose’s Passion

Best Short Film Animated
Ryan

Best Short Film Live Action
Everything In This Country Must

 

[Craig S]

HTF Consensus

Here is the final HTF consensus on the Oscar winners. This was based on 26 members posting full or partial lists as of 7:00 PM CST on Sunday, Feb. 27, 2005.

The predicted winners are shown in red. Total votes received follow each nominee. Fractional votes are the result of members declaring ties or tossups in a category.

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda: 1
Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland: 1
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator: 0
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby: 2
Jamie Foxx - Ray: 22

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Alan Alda - The Aviator: 2
Jamie Foxx - Collateral: 0
Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby: 18
Thomas Haden Church - Sideways: 3
Clive Owen - Closer: 3

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Annette Bening - Being Julia: 1
Catalina Sandino Morena - Maria Full Of Grace: 0
Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake: 2
Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby: 22
Kate Winslet - Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind: 1

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett - The Aviator: 12
Laura Linney - Kinsey: 2
Virginia Madsen - Sideways: 7
Sophie Okenado - Hotel Rwanda: 0
Natalie Portman - Closer: 4

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
The Incredibles: 23
Shrek 2: 0
Shark Tale: 0

Achievement In Art Direction
The Aviator: 17
Finding Neverland: 0
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events: 1
The Phantom Of The Opera: 2
A Very Long Engagement: 1

Achievement In Cinematography
The Aviator: 13
House Of Flying Daggers: 1
The Passion Of The Christ: 7
The Phantom Of The Opera: 0
A Very Long Engagement: 0

Achievement In Costume Design
The Aviator: 15
Finding Neverland: 1
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events: 4
Ray: 1
Troy: 0

Achievement In Directing
Martin Scorsese - The Aviator: 10
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby: 13
Taylor Hackford - Ray: 0
Alexander Payne - Sideways: 1
Mike Leigh - Vera Drake: 0

Best Documentary Feature
Born Into Brothels: 9
The Story of the Weeping Camel: 0
Super Size Me: 8
Tupac: Resurrection: 0
Twist Of Faith: 1

Best Documentary Short Subject
Autism Is A World: 6
The Children Of Leningradsky: 2
Hardwood: 2
Mighty Times: The Children's March: 1
Sister Rose's Passion: 3

Achievement In Film Editing
The Aviator: 12
Collateral: 2
Finding Neverland: 0
Million Dollar Baby: 6
Ray: 1

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
As It Is In Heaven: 1
The Chorus: 1
Downfall: 0
The Sea Inside: 12
Yesterday: 2

Achievement In Makeup
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events: 3
The Passion Of The Christ: 15
The Sea Inside: 2

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Jan A.P. Kaczmarek - Finding Neverland: 8
John Williams - Harry Potter And The Prisoner Of Azkaban: 4
Thomas Newman - Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events: 0
John Debney - The Passion Of The Christ: 5
James Newton Howard - The Village: 3

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
"Accidentally In Love" - Shrek 2: 7
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - The Motorcycle Diaries: 0
"Believe" - The Polar Express: 8
"Learn To Be Lonely" - The Phantom Of The Opera: 4
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - The Chorus: 0

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Aviator: 13
Finding Neverland: 0
Million Dollar Baby: 11
Ray: 0
Sideways: 2

Best Animated Short Film
Birthday Boy: 2
Gopher Broke: 0
Guard Dog: 3
Lorenzo: 3
Ryan: 5

Best Live Action Short Film
Everything In This Country Must: 2
Little Terrorist: 7
7:35 In The Morning: 0
Two Cars, One Night: 2
Wasp: 2

Achievement In Sound Editing
The Incredibles: 11
The Polar Express: 2
Spider-Man 2: 8

Achievement In Sound Mixing
The Aviator: 10
The Incredibles: 4
The Polar Express: 1
Ray: 4
Spider-Man 2: 0

Achievement In Visual Effects
Harry Potter And The Prisoner Of Azkaban: 3
I, Robot: 5
Spider-Man 2: 13

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Before Sunset: 0
Finding Neverland: 0
Million Dollar Baby: 6
The Motorcycle Diaries: 0
Sideways: 17

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
The Aviator: 2
Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind: 18
Hotel Rwanda: 3
The Incredibles: 0
Vera Drake: 0

Final Counts

The Aviator: 7
Million Dollar Baby: 3
The Incredibles: 2
Finding Neverland: 1
Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind: 1
The Passion Of The Christ: 1
Ray: 1
The Sea Inside: 1
Shrek 2: 1
Sideways: 1
Spider-Man 2: 1

Plus the 4 winners of the Documentary & Short categories.

 

[Brian W.]

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Jamie Foxx - Ray

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Virginia Madsen - Sideways

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
The Incredibles

Achievement In Art Direction
The Aviator

Achievement In Cinematography
The Aviator

Achievement In Costume Design
The Aviator

Achievement In Directing
Martin Scorcese - The Aviator

Best Documentary Feature
Born Into Brothels

Best Documentary Short Subject
Children of Leningradsky

Achievement In Film Editing
The Aviator

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
Yesterday

Achievement In Makeup
The Sea Inside

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Passion of the Christ

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
"Believe" - The Polar Express

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Aviator

Best Animated Short Film
Lorenzo

Best Live Action Short Film
Little Terrorist

Achievement In Sound Mixing
The Aviator

Achievement In Sound Editing
The Polar Express

Achievement In Visual Effects
I, Robot

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor - Sideways

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Keir Pearson & Terry George - Hotel Rwanda

 

[Brian W.]

Aww, I missed it!

 

[Karl F]

PICTURE: The Aviator
DIRECTOR: Clint Eastwood
LEAD ACTOR: Jamie Foxx
LEAD ACTRESS: Hilary Swank
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Thomas Haden Church
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Sideways
ANIMATED FEATURE: The Incredibles
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Born into Brothels
FOREIGN FILM: The Sea Inside
SONG: The Polar Express one
SCORE: Harry Potter
MAKE-UP: Lemony Snicket
ART DIRECTION: The Aviator
CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Aviator
COSTUME DESIGN: The Aviator
FILM EDITING: The Aviator
VISUAL EFFECTS: Spider-Man 2
SOUND: Ray
SOUND EDITING: Spider-Man 2
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Autism is a Word
LIVE ACTION SHORT: Little Terrorist
ANIMATED SHORT: Ryan

--K

 

[Craig S]

No you didn't - I'll post the final consensus in about 30 minutes or so.

 

[Craig S]

OK, the final update to the HTF consensus is posted. See a couple of posts up.

 

[Jason Harbaugh]

18 out of 24, not too shabby.

 

[Tino]

14 out of 24. OK I guess. Last year I think I got 21 out of 24, coming in second (after Vickie M). This year was much harder to predict though.

 

[Steve Christou]

Well I predicted 7 correct wins, pretty pathetic really.

I did better last year with Return of the King.