*** Official "2003 Box Office Prediction and Discussion" Thread (1 Viewer)

[Dana Fillhart]

Sorry for the delay everybody -- I won't be able to post my weekly update just yet...I'm up in Boston 4 days a week and right now I don't have internet access in the evenings (and the new job's been keeping me WAY too busy to fiddle with it!), so it'll be a couple days 'til I get to it. Hopefully next week I can get evening access when I come back up, so I can do my usual Tuesday post. This week's will likely be Thursday evening when I get back home.

 

[Dana Fillhart]

Sorry for that delay...here are last weekend's totals and this weekend's new films. I will post my comments below the list tomorrow; hopefully I'll have internet access in the evenings during the week next week so I can do the updates on Tuesdays like I've been doing.
NEW RELEASES are placed above previous week's releases in RED, * = 2002 release, (E) = Estimate, (L) = Limited Release

FILMS IN THEATRES FOR THE WEEKEND OF
31 Jan 2003Title
StudioRelease Date (Week #)
Current/max theatresWeekend Tally / Grand TotalClosest Guess Final Destination 2
New Line Cinema31 Jan 2003 (0)
?/?(?)(?) The Recruit
Touchstone Pictures31 Jan 2003 (0)
?/?(?)(?) Biker Boyz
Dreamworks Distribution, LLC31 Jan 2003 (0)
?/?(?)(?) Lost in La Muncha
IFC Films31 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?(?)(?) The Guru
Universal Pictures31 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?(?)(?) L'Chayim, Comrade Stalin
Cinema Guild31 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?(?)(?) The R.M.
Halestorm Entertainment31 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?(?)(?) Chaos
New Yorker Films29 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?(?)(?) The Last Letter
Zipporah Films29 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?(?)(?)
PREVIOUS TOTALS FOR THE WEEK ENDING
26 Jan 2003
1Darkness Falls
Columbia Pictures24 Jan 2003 (1)
2,837 / 2,837$12,024,917 / $12,024,917-2Kangaroo Jack
Warner Bros.17 Jan 2003 (2)
2,848 / 2,848$11,548,247 / $35,112,415-3* Chicago
Miramax Films27 Dec 2002 (5)
616 / 616$8,238,709 / $40,386,310-4National Security
Columbia Pictures17 Jan 2003 (2)
2,729 / 2,729$7,308,966 / $26,040,534-5* The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
New Line Cinema18 Dec 2002 (6)
2,666 / 3,622$6,611,705 / $308,821,306-6* Catch Me If You Can
Dreamworks Distribution, LLC25 Dec 2002 (5)
2,776 / 3,225$6,501,059 / $144,962,124-7Just Married
20th Century Fox10 Jan 2003 (3)
2,705 / 2,766$6,482,600 / $43,353,177-8* Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
Miramax Films31 Dec 2002 (4)
1,769 / 2,705$5,833,052 / $6,332,676-9* About Schmidt
New Line Cinema13 Dec 2002 (7)
1,236 / 1,236$5,382,302 / $37,745,475-10* The Hours
Paramount Pictures29 Nov 2002 (5)
502 / 502$3,934,284 / $13,868,754-11A Guy Thing
MGM/UA17 Jan 2003 (2)
2,520 / 2,520$3,363,857 / $12,300,001-12* Gangs of New York
Miramax Films20 Dec 2002 (6)
1,905 / 2,340$2,764,424 / $65,377,894-13* Two Weeks Notice
Warner Bros.20 Dec 2002 (6)
1,858 / 2,755$2,402,271 / $88,824,947-14* My Big Fat Greek Wedding
IFC Films19 Apr 2002 (41)
1,143 / 2,016$1,704,430 / $236,448,697-15* Antwone Fisher
Fox Searchlight Pictures19 Dec 2002 (6)
970 / 1,021$1,670,258 / $17,141,451-16* Maid in Manhattan
Columbia Pictures13 Dec 2002 (7)
1,433 / 3,050$1,553,854 / $91,082,447-17* 25th Hour
Touchstone Pictures19 Dec 2002 (6)
495 / 495$1,517,462 / $9,670,841-18* Adaptation.
Columbia Pictures6 Dec 2002 (8)
564 / 564$1,406,390 / $14,252,147-19* Narc
Paramount Pictures20 Dec 2002 (6)
822 / 822$1,332,607 / $8,535,636-20* The Pianist
Focus Films / Miramax Films27 Sep 2002 (5)
308 / 308$1,247,912 / $6,008,691-21* Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
Warner Bros.15 Nov 2002 (11)
783 / 3,682$778,462 / $258,898,102-22* The Lion King (IMAX)
Buena Vista Pictures / Disney27 Dec 2002 (5)
66 / 66$756,575 / $9,631,511-23* Die Another Day
MGM/UA22 Nov 2002 (10)
965 / 3,314$713,007 / $158,626,849-24* Drumline
20th Century Fox13 Dec 2002 (7)
691 / 1,837$678,496 / $54,493,593-25* The Wild Thornberrys Movie
Paramount Pictures20 Dec 2002 (6)
1,272 / 3,012$559,997 / $38,415,915-26* Habla con Ella (Talk to Her)
Sony Pictures Classics22 Nov 2002 (10)
82 / 82$368,136 / $3,923,090-27* Far from Heaven
IFC Films8 Nov 2002 (12)
231 / 291$310,585 / $13,144,266-28* Rabbit-Proof Fence
Miramax Films27 Nov 2002 (8)
118 / 118$291,338 / $2,982,691-29* The Ring
Dreamworks18 Oct 2002 (15)
332 / 366$251,963 / $128,288,631-30* Frida
Focus Films / Miramax Films25 Oct 2002 (13)
163 / 794$241,668 / $22,832,704-
...

 

[Malcolm R]

Well, since TerryRL seems to be snoozing :wink:, here's the weekend Top 10:

1. The Recruit - $16.5M
2. Final Destination 2 - $16.2M
3. Biker Boyz - $10.1M
4. Kangaroo Jack - $9M
5. Darkness Falls - $7.5M
6. Chicago - $7.1M
7. LOTR: The Two Towers - $5M
8. Just Married - $4.9M
9. Catch Me If You Can - $4.8M
10. About Schmidt - $4.7M[/list=1]

 

[Alex Spindler]

Wow, quite the horserace. At least they were much better films than we've been seeing these past few weeks.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates...

#1 "How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days" $8.0 million
#2 "Shanghai Knights" $6.2 million
#3 "Chicago" $2.9 million ($53.0 million)
#4 "The Recruit" $2.7 million ($20.6 million)
#5 "Final Destination 2" $2.6 million ($19.6 million)
#6 "Deliver Us from Eva" $2.2 million
#7 "Darkness Falls" $1.25 million ($22.9 million)
#8 "Biker Boyz" $1.22 ($11.7 million)
#9 "Kangaroo Jack" $1.1 million ($46.9 million)
#10 "Catch Me If You Can" $790K ($153.4 million)

 

[Alex Spindler]

I never would have guessed that 10 Days could outgross Shanghai Knights.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Wait until today's box office results when Shanghai Knights takes the lead.

 

[Adam_S]

And Two Towers will wind up in the top ten again with it's saturday and sunday grosses which have more people in every showing than the friday crowd (which misses the first two noon and one showings because of school), just like last week.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Well, it looks like I was dead wrong with the chicks winning out this weekend with Shanghai Knights finishing in second place.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days" $24.1 million
#2 "Shanghai Knights" $19.7 million
#3 "Chicago" $10.7 million ($63.7 million)
#4 "The Recruit" $9.4 million ($30.0 million)
#5 "Final Destination 2" $8.6 million ($28.1 million)
#6 "Deliver Us from Eva" $7.0 million
#7 "Kangaroo Jack" $5.8 million ($52.8 million)
#8 "Biker Boyz" $4.0 million ($15.8 million)
#9 "Darkness Falls" $3.8 million ($26.7 million)
#10 "The Two Towers" $3.3 million ($320.7 million)
#11 "Catch Me If You Can" $3.1 million ($156.5 million)

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

Well, it looks like I was dead wrong with the chicks winning out this weekend with Shanghai Knights finishing in second place.

Just when we thought we've had just about enough romantic comedies in recent weeks with Maid In Manhattan and Two Weeks Notice in December and the DVD release of Sweet Home Alabama just this week, now comes a new #1 film and a romantic comedy at that.
It seems like America just can't get enough of it.
~Edwin

 

[Matt Pelham]

Next week we'll see how well DareDevil can perform. According to box office mojo it will open on Thursday at 9:00pm in 2500 theaters, then go ultra-wide on Friday with 3400 theaters. Seems the studio has a lot of faith in it, and the early reviews have been pretty good. I'm going with a $46.5 million weekend, good for the 2nd best February opening ever.

 

[Dana Fillhart]

Sorry, so many things have been taking my attention, I missed the previous week's tallies. Hopefully I'll have a little luck this week in catching up and get out a new chart by Tuesday when all official totals come in (not just estimates).

 

[Lou Sytsma]

I see DareDevil doing XMen1 type of BO. It'll be hard pressed to break the 100 mill mark.

 

[Adam_S]

I think that Daredevil will open anywhere from 35 mil to 60 mil, but it's hard to gauge exactly, by all accounts this is as good a movie as Spiderman, possibly as crowd pleasing, and very possibly a better film than Spiderman. However the character doesn't have the universal awareness that Spidey, Bats, and Supes get.

BUT, there have been a glut of teen/romantic comedies lately that guys with girls are probably sick of seeing, the guys can probably get away with getting their dates to DD for Valentines weekend especially if the guys play up that there is a strong love plot that's very well done (according to prerelease buzz). It's also an event movie (alone right now except the falling off Two Towers), that should draw good wide crowds as well.

I expect that Chicago, Gangs of New York, and Two Towers will benefit most by the Oscar nominations tomorrow, all possibly having larger weekends than last, if not rising in the actual ranking. Chicago - 12 million, Two Towers - 5-6 million, Gangs of New York - 2 million.

Adam

 

[Patrick Sun]

I'll guess Daredevil takes in $42 million (but would not be surprised if it hit $50 million) for this weekend. It's been really promoted these past 2 weeks, and Jennifer Garner is going to help since she's got a regular TV gig.

I thought it'd be closer between this week's top two, but I can see why the chick flick brought in more dough (being right before Valentine Day's weekend, and with no big sports events in the way (I don't consider the NBA All-Star game a big factor except in Atlanta, where it was hell to go see films in the city, I know because I was in the middle of the traffic jams).

 

[Dennis Pagoulatos]

I see DareDevil doing XMen1 type of BO. It'll be hard pressed to break the 100 mill mark.

Didn't X1 make over $150 million though?

-Dennis

 

[Patrick Sun]

Which compared to Spider-Man is spare change. If Daredevil hit X-Men 1 numbers, Fox will be a happy studio.

 

[Lou Sytsma]

Didn't X1 make over $150 million though?

Did it really? Wow - my bad.

Aynhow I stand by my estimate of ~ 100 mill.

 

[Malcolm R]

X-Men
Opening Weekend: $54,471,475
Total Gross: $157,299,718