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*** Official "2003 Box Office Prediction and Discussion" Thread (1 Viewer)

Kevin M

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Kevin Ray
Just Married said:
Meaning I am not 100% serious about this, however it is a shame to me that Kangaroo Jack is #1 and Gangs Of New York is #11.
As far as the mental decay of cinema...well...if you make a direct comparison between moronic teen films of the 70's 80's & 90's there is little difference between them aside from the level that they are willing to go to to get a shock laugh, what Kevin Smith refers to as "Dick & Fart jokes", on this level they are rapidly sinking lower and lower in efforts to keep the (in their opinion is seems)already short attention span of the teenage mind.
Is there really that much difference between Porkys and say Scary Movie? ...only the amount of bodily fluids and gases used. I can see a day when it will be degenerated down to The Fart Movie, an hour and a half of people farting in the faces of other people.
I'm serious about this...really....I swear...
By the way, it's spelled Graffiti. ;)
 

Adam_S

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Did you not read my post at all?
Namely quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"I'm only slightly about this."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
yeah I had that in mind, but it wasn't quite as clear that my post was meant to be more of a teasing tone--we've both heard these arguments too many times already :). I too wish that Gangs of New York were number one, its my favorite film of the year, but unfortunately its not as audience friendly as the less cerebral Kangaroo Jack or Just Married (although I will admit that comedy is very difficult to get right, so I must admire the filmmakers for succeeding in getting an audience to laugh and enjoy themselves).
Adam
 

Dana Fillhart

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Here are the totals through Sunday January 19th. They do NOT include Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.
NEW RELEASES are placed above previous week's releases in RED
, * = 2002 release, (E) = Estimate, (L) = Limited Release

FILMS IN THEATRES FOR THE WEEKEND OF
24 Jan 2003Title
StudioRelease Date (Week #)
Current/max theatresWeekend Tally / Grand TotalClosest Guess Amen
Kino International24 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?(?)(?) Blind Spot
Sony Pictures Classics24 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?(?)(?) Darkness Falls
Columbia Pictures24 Jan 2003 (0)
?/?(?)(?) In the Mirror of Maya Deren
Zeitgeist Films24 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?(?)(?) Super Sucker
Purple Rose Films24 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?(?)(?)
PREVIOUS TOTALS FOR THE WEEK ENDING
19 Jan 2003
1Kangaroo Jack
Warner Bros.17 Jan 2003 (1)
2,818 / 2,818$16,580,209 / $16,580,209-2National Security
Columbia Pictures17 Jan 2003 (1)
2,729 / 2,729$14,369,694 / $14,369,694-3Just Married
20th Century Fox10 Jan 2003 (2)
2,769 / 2,769$11,871,330 / $33,428,852-4* Catch Me If You Can
Dreamworks Distribution, LLC25 Dec 2002 (4)
3,050 / 3,225$10,696,726 / $134,489,853-5* The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
New Line Cinema18 Dec 2002 (5)
3,110 / 3,622$10,274,388 / $297,892,450-6* Chicago
Miramax Films27 Dec 2002 (4)
557 / 557$7,602,133 / $27,261,777-7A Guy Thing
MGM/UA17 Jan 2003 (1)
2,515 / 2,515$6,988,749 / $6,988,749-8* About Schmidt
New Line Cinema13 Dec 2002 (6)
946 / 946$5,669,076 / $29,535,854-9* The Hours
Paramount Pictures29 Nov 2002 (4)
402 / 402$4,644,924 / $7,334,731-10* Two Weeks Notice
Warner Bros.20 Dec 2002 (5)
2,240 / 2,755$4,009,157 / $84,903,853-11* Gangs of New York
Miramax Films20 Dec 2002 (5)
2,170 / 2,340$3,712,112 / $60,485,768-12* Maid in Manhattan
Columbia Pictures13 Dec 2002 (6)
2,171 / 3,050$3,113,850 / $88,369,392-13* Antwone Fisher
Fox Searchlight Pictures19 Dec 2002 (5)
1,021 / 1,021$2,776,529 / $14,305,055-14* 25th Hour
Touchstone Pictures19 Dec 2002 (5)
490 / 490$2,291,590 / $7,099,928-15* My Big Fat Greek Wedding
IFC Films19 Apr 2002 (40)
1,171 / 2,016$2,173,330 / $233,841,212-16* Narc
Paramount Pictures20 Dec 2002 (5)
822 / 822$1,925,304 / $6,249,888-17* Adaptation.
Columbia Pictures6 Dec 2002 (7)
564 / 564$1,825,241 / $11,880,773-18* Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
Warner Bros.15 Nov 2002 (10)
1,077 / 3,682$1,412,259 / $257,405,375-19* Drumline
20th Century Fox13 Dec 2002 (6)
1,117 / 1,837$1,408,213 / $53,300,549-20* The Wild Thornberrys Movie
Paramount Pictures20 Dec 2002 (5)
2,061 / 3,012$1,356,826 / $36,960,254-21* The Pianist
Focus Films / Miramax Films27 Sep 2002 (4)
258 / 258$1,263,509 / $4,129,765-22* Die Another Day
MGM/UA22 Nov 2002 (9)
975 / 3,314$930,215 / $157,550,985-23* The Lion King (IMAX)
Buena Vista Pictures / Disney27 Dec 2002 (4)
66 / 66$911,671 / $8,353,844-24* The Hot Chick
Touchstone Pictures13 Dec 2002 (6)
666 / 2,246$556,106 / $33,490,937-25* Far from Heaven
IFC Films8 Nov 2002 (11)
264 / 291$433,998 / $12,607,842-26* Star Trek: Nemesis
Paramount Pictures13 Dec 2002 (6)
1,022 / 2,711$401,462 / $42,401,859-27* Treasure Planet
Buena Vista Pictures / Disney27 Nov 2002 (8)
512 / 3,227$368,672 / $37,025,542-28* The Ring
Dreamworks18 Oct 2002 (14)
366 / 366$342,826 / $127,872,381-29* Bowling for Columbine
MGM/UA11 Oct 2002 (15)
213 / 248$341,177 / $17,159,431-30* Habla con Ella (Talk to Her)
Sony Pictures Classics22 Nov 2002 (9)
66 / 66$328,518 / $3,352,017-
...
>30Blue Collar Comedy Tour
Warner Bros.10 Jan 2003 (2)
- / - / ->30* Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
Miramax Films31 Dec 2002 (3)
5 / 5$81,812 / $308,027->30Divine Intervention
Avatar Films17 Jan 2003 (1)
- / - / >30The Slaughter Rule
Cowboy Booking International10 Jan 2003 (2)
2 / 2$1,464 / $2,523->30The Son
New Yorker Films10 Jan 2003 (2)
2 / 2$10,048 / $10,048->30Cidade de Deus (City of God)
Miramax Films17 Jan 2003 (1)
- / -$88,292 / ->30Close, Closed, Closure
First Run Features / Icarus Films15 Jan 2003 (1)
- / - / ->30Kira's Reason: A Love Story
First Run Features17 Jan 2003 (1)
1 / 1$1,650 / $1,650 (E)->30P.S. Your Cat Is Dead!
TLA Releasing17 Jan 2003 (1)
5 / 5$9,424 / $9,424->30Tales Not Told
Premiere Marketing and Distribution Group10 Jan 2003 (1)
- / - / -
Notes:
  • Two Towers *just* missed the $300M mark on Sunday, but DID cross it Monday. Congratulations to that film -- just over one month ... now let's see how long its legs can go!
  • We now have tallies for 8 films for 2003, and a total of 17 2003 films listed.
  • Seeing the two new comedies at #1 and #2 isn't such a surprise...but check out Chicago, whoa! #6 on semi-wide relase -- guess Miramax's campaigns really ARE working!
  • Almost every single Oscar contender is in the top 30 now, most in the top 20.
 

Kami

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Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines - $240M (really depends on the quality of the film though)
Bad Boys 2 - $200M
Finding Nemo - $260M
The Hulk - $200M
Pirates of the Caribbean - $125M
The Matrix: Reloaded - $250M
The Matrix: Revolutions - $250M
(assuming they're rated "R")
X2 - $160M
LOTR: Return of The King - I think it will just sneak itself up to $400m, but probably a bit less if it is 3.5 - 4 hours instead of 3 hours as rumored.
 

Seth Paxton

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Regarding The Hours and the Globe effect, I haven't been following the early year BO since there is so much else going on in film. However, I made the mistake of not getting out to see The Hours on FRI/SAT like I had planned.
So on Monday afternoon, MLK day AND the day after the Globe win I got stuck in a packed house. It was 90% women over 50 btw. I fit in real good. ;)
I also was running late and got there just as the trailers were starting. I had to sit down low even though I went by myself since the place was packed.
Hours won't make a ton of money, and to be honest it probably doesn't deserve to. Being a well-made but dry, adult film doesn't exactly beg to be seen by everyone. Let's be honest here, why would your average teen want to see a film so dry, just as it's understandable why those ladies watching The Hours probably missed Spider-Man (a film which did reach large audiences). Heck, they might not even be comfortable seeing GONY.
When you play for an Oscar by going for ultra-serious you get the boost toward your Oscar chances, but the obvious cost is eliminating many audiences that simply don't identify with the characters nor find the film good for escapism.
I don't support moronic crap, mind you, but escapism itself is a very valuable aspect that the film arts offer society. And it always has been. Such work can be done well (think of most great comedies or adventure films) and can even be at Oscar level (like FOTR or SW:ANH). It's just hard to do.
But I think it's also easier to go for an Oscar by staying "serious and important" than it is to try to win coming from a lighter angle.
So there is more to low BO returns for Oscar films than just the downfall of society. A lot of it has to do with society's needs from film. The indication that society is fine is not that GONY or Hours is #1 at the BO, but rather that these films are getting made and being publically recognized.
Believe me, the people that look for more than escapism out of their films are finding these projects. They are the same percentage as they have always been (which you obviously recognized, Kevin).
It's also worth noting that when escapism is put together with quality filmmaking, the BO returns are very solid. It's safe to say that TTT, CMIYC, Greek Wedding, Harry Potter, even The Ring will all end up with bigger BO hauls than K.Jack, Nat. Security, or Just Married. And as Chicago opens wider and wins some awards it probably will pass them as well and hit $100m too.
In fact, looking at the top BO films of 2002 I think society looks to have pretty decent tastes generally speaking.
BTW, Patrick, I don't know what Kang. Jack trailer you saw, but to me it looked just like Snow Dogs. That's why I'm avoiding it. Maybe it will be good for a laugh on cable.
 

Iain Jackson

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I'm going to add two more predictions to my list, and these will probably be the last ones as well...
The Recruit: $70m - the trailer looks good, but I don't see this performing much beyond Training Day or Insomnia.
Final Destination 2: $65m - this appears to be a straight rehash of the original (which wasn't exactly a blockbuster in the first place). As such I think it will have a strong opening but poor legs.
 

Kevin M

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Mind you I love a good escapist movie, hell if you were to look at my video collection you will notice an odd mix, for instance Wages of Fear - Zombie - Citizen Kane - Dumb & Dumber - M - Phenomena - Brazil - Shock Waves - Solaris - Children Shouldn't Play With Dead Things etc. etc. I do like a wide range of film and have a love for "dumb" exploitation horror but I just wish the success ratio was spread wider at the box office for some films...and as was pointed out, it actually is a little bit wider spread this season if you look at the chart Dana provided, some films I never would have thought to draw in money are actually doing quite well.....this is refreshing to say the least.
Maybe my bad omen is a good portent after all.
 

Tim Bishop

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TOP 30 FILMS 2003

Lord of the Rings - $300
Finding Nemo - $250
Matrix 2 - $200
Matrix 3 - $200
Cat in the Hat - $200
X-Men 2 - $150
Bruce Almighty - $150
American Wedding - $150
Anger Management - $150
Charlies Angels 2 - $150
Daredevil - $100
League of Extraordinary Men - $100
Legally Blonde 2 - $100
Kill Bill - $100
Dumb & Dumberer - $100
Hunted - $100
Italian Job - $100
Tomb Raider 2 - $100
Bad Boys 2 - $100
SWAT - $100
Hulk - $100
Fast and Furious 2 - $100
Dreamcatcher - $100
T3 - $100
Matchstick Men - $100
Last Samurai - $100
Sinbad - $90
Daddy Day Care - $90
Basic - $90
Mona Lisa Smile - $90
 

Matt Stone

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Here are a few predictions...
Return of the King - $350
Matrix 2 - $275
Matrix 3 - $200
X2 - $180
Daredevil - $140
...more to follow.
 

Pete-D

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A lot of you guys seem to be predicting X2 will make less than X-Men.

I think you guys are seriously underestimating X-Men. Behind Spider-Man it is Marvel's most bankable franchise, especailly with teenagers and it has a strong female following also.

This is the sequel, the original probably brought in some new fans also, and it's opening in the same time slot as Spider-Man did.

X2 will do $200 million easily, $250 mill may still be in the cards. Look for a monsterous opening weekend.
 

Luis Cruz

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I totally agree with Pete-D. People are underestimating the business X2 is gonna bring in. I say it can definately take in $250 million domestically and probably even more. Keep a close eye on that one. God Bless.
 

TerryRL

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Friday Estimates

#1 "Darkness Falls" $4.9 million
#2 "Chicago" $2.6 million ($34.7 million)
#3 "Kangaroo Jack" $2.4 million ($26.0 million)
#4 "National Security" $2.3 million ($21.1 million)
#5 "Just Married" $2.2 million ($39.0 million)
#6 "Catch Me If You Can" $2.0 million ($140.4 million)
#7 "Confessions of a Dangerous Mind" $1.8 million ($2.3 million)
#8 "The Two Towers" $1.67 million ($303.9 million)
#9 "About Schmidt" $1.60 ($33.9 million)
#10 "The Hours" $1.1 million ($11.1 million)
 

Adam_S

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12 million isn't particularly amazing for a B horror movie, unless it's because its January and counter programming to all the comedies and high brow oscar fair (probably for the kids that mostly saw it, LOTR and CMIYC are olde movies they've already seen).

I've always said that simply releasing high profile A list movies in February or March would be very nice, because they WILL make money. Many people have no idea how boring it is in the midwest, where if we get any of the arty oscar releases its a rare event, last year our theater carried In the Bedroom for one week and Gosford Park for two, (unfortunatley I picked Gosford Park the first week and missed In the Bedroom altogether). So considering that Darkness falls got released to MULTIplexes (not just four-six screen theaters) that will almost certainly NEVER carry Confessions of a Dangerous Mind, Adaptation and probably not the Hours, it's not really surprising at all to me that a (new release) movie playing in theaters everywhere makes more money than a movie playing only on the coasts and major cities.

of course I haven't actually looked at any of the actual numbers of theaters and compared them, but oh well:b :happy

Adam
 

Malcolm R

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It was "new" and it was aimed at teens. That seems to guarantee about $12M to $20M opening these days. Plus it had some marketing $$ behind it, as I'm pretty sure I've been seeing trailers in theaters since last September. I actually thought the gross was rather low; I'd have expected $18M or so.
 

Adam_S

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I now wouldnt be suprised if Daredevil got close to $200mil. It doesnt have any real competition.
I was about to quickly reply that 200 mil is where I had it pegged for, then remembered I purposely put most of my predictions at least 50 million lower than I thought they would make, and now see that DD was put at 155 mil by me, which I generally expect is a pretty conservative estimate, I think it CAN make more than that, the 155 mil is the marketing audience + decent/average movie gross in my opinion, if the quality of the movie is significantly high (like I sorta hope it will be) then I think it can make significantly more, around 220 million as a conservative high estimate.


Adam
 

Patrick Sun

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For DD, I'd be surprised if it went over $125 million for its theatrical run. I'm just not getting that "gotta see it" buzz (though I'll see it, but being a comic book aficionado, I'm compelled to see it).
 

Chuck Mayer

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I am with Patrick. $200 M means it's gotta play the cheap seats to a very broad audience. Take the Alias audience and the comic fanboys seeing it twice, plus the Affleck (or JLo) groupies, and you are still around $40 M. That's a lot of business to be made on word of mouth and trailer buzz. My wife LAUGHS at the ads, so I'll see it alone (with sad memories of "Born Again" floating wistfully through my head). I don't think her response is abnormal. I actually expect it to have to fight to break $100 M.

Ice Age, which was a BIG hit, didn't even come close to $200 M. I doubt DD can do it.

Take care,
Chuck
 

Malcolm R

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Ben Affleck in red tights. Uninteresting trailer. Not a "popular" character like Batman, Superman, or Spider-Man (or even The Hulk). Closer to "Blade" status.

Competition or not, I can't see this being all that big. I'm sticking with around $80M (or about the same as "Blade"), and I have a gut feeling that may still be too high.
 

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