*** Official 2003 Academy Award Winner Prediction Thread (1 Viewer)

[Craig S]

Just a final bump - less than 24 hours to go. Get your final picks in by 6 PM (CST) tomorrow. Remember, if you update an existing post (including filling in a placeholder) please do a bump post here. Thanks!

 

[ChrisBEA]

Here are my guesses, of course some are not who I would choose, but i guess we all know how that goes....


Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Bill Murray - Lost In Translation

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Tim Robbins - Mystic River

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Charlize Theron - Monster

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Finding Nemo

Achievement In Art Direction
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Cinematography
Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Achievement In Costume Design
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Directing
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Documentary Feature
Capturing The Friedmans

Best Documentary Short Subject
Asylum

Achievement In Film Editing
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)

Achievement In Makeup
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Fran Walsh, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Animated Short Film
Destino

Best Live Action Short Film
Two Soldiers

Achievement In Sound
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Sound Editing
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Brian Helgeland - Mystic River

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

 

[Travis_S]

Updated my post on page 1 with final predictions.

 

[Adam_S]

Bold is will win, Italics is personal preference/should win, third film is the film other than my will win prediction that I think might win


Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley - House Of Sand And Fog
Bill Murray - Lost In Translation


Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams
Djimon Hounsou - In America
Tim Robbins - Mystic River


Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Samantha Morton - In America
Charlize Theron - Monster
Naomi Watts - 21 Grams

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog
Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Finding Nemo


Achievement In Art Direction
Seabiscuit
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World


Achievement In Cinematography
Cesar Charlone - City Of God
Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
John Schwartzman - Seabiscuit

Achievement In Costume Design
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Achievement In Directing
Fernando Meirelles - City Of God
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Documentary Feature]/b]
Capturing The Friedmans
My Architect: A Son’s Journey

Best Documentary Short Subject
Asylum
Chernobyl Heart
Ferry Tales

Achievement In Film Editing
City Of God
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King


Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)
The Twilight Samurai (Japan)

Achievement In Makeup
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World


Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Danny Elfman - Big Fish
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Fran Walsh, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Benoit Charest & Sylvain Chomet, "The Triplets of Belleville" - The Triplets of Belleville


Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King


Best Animated Short Film
Destino


Best Live Action Short Film
Most (The Bridge)
(A) Torzija ([A] Torsion)



Achievement In Sound
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World


Achievement In Sound Editing
Finding Nemo
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World


Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World


Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Brian Helgeland - Mystic River
Gary Ross - Seabiscuit

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Jim, Kirsten & Naomi Sheridan - In America
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

Final Counts

The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 8
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 2
Cold Mountain: 0
Seabiscuit: 1
Mystic River: 2
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl: 1
City Of God: 1
The Last Samurai: 0
Lost In Translation: 1
Finding Nemo: 0
Girl With a Pearl Earring - 0
House Of Sand And Fog: 1
In America: 0
21 Grams: 0
A Mighty Wind: 0
American Splendor: 0
Big Fish: 0
Monster: 1
Thirteen: 0
Whale Rider: 0

 

[ZacharyTait]

Changed three of my picks:

Changed Editing from Return of the King to City of God.

Changed Adapted Screenplay from Return of the King to Mystic River.

Changed Sound Mixing from Return of the King to Master and Commander.

Don't worry. I still think Return of the King is going to be the big winner of the night by far.

 

[Ray_R]

Return of the King
Peter Jackson
Johnny Depp
And others not knowing...

 

[Tino]

Here we go:

Best Pcture: The Return Of The King
Best Director: Peter Jackson
Best Actor: Johnny Depp
Best Actress: Charlize Theron
Best Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins
Best Supporting Actress: Rene Zellwegger
Best Original Screenplay: Lost In Translation
Best Adapted Screenplay: ROTK (Hope Earnest is thirsty!)
Best Editing: ROTK
Best Visual Effects: ROTK
Best Original Score: ROTK
Best Original Song: ROTK
Best Art Direction: ROTK
Best Sound: ROTK
Best Sound FX Editing: Master And Commander
Best Cinematography: Seabiscuit
Best Animated Feature: Finding Nemo
Best Makeup: ROTK
Best Costume Design: The Last Samurai
Best Foreign Language Film: The Barbarian Invasions
Best Live Action Short: Two Soldiers
Best Animated Short: Destino
Best Documentary Short: Chernobyl Heart
Best Documentary Feature: Capturing The Friedmans.

Every one a guaranteed winner!

 

[Ray H]

Changed Penn to Depp. But I refuse to jump on the Rene bandwagon.

 

[Adam_S]

I changed best doc to My Architect, Capturing the friedmans is fading fast in my memory and estimation, I think it perhaps came out too early to be recognized. And I changed Art Direction to Seabiscuit.

Adam

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

Posted my picks early this morning.

~Edwin

 

[Galen_V]

I just wanted to mention that I filled in my place holder on 2/21 (I forgot to do so at the time).

 

[Craig S]

Last minute change - Adapted Screenplay, from MR to RotK. I just have this feeling... an old song from the 70s has been running through my head: "Yellow river, yellow river..."

 

[Craig S]

Here is the final HTF consensus on the Oscar winners. This was based on 35 members posting full or partial lists as of 6 PM CST on Sunday, Feb. 29, 2004.

The predicted winners are shown in red. Total votes received follow each nominee. Fractional votes are the result of members declaring ties or tossups in a category.

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl: 10
Ben Kingsley - House Of Sand And Fog: 1
Jude Law - Cold Mountain: 0
Bill Murray - Lost In Translation: 12
Sean Penn - Mystic River: 13

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Alec Baldwin - The Cooler: .5
Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams: 2
Djimon Hounsou - In America: 0
Tim Robbins - Mystic River: 30.5
Ken Watenabe - The Last Samurai: 2

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider: 0
Diane Keaton - Something’s Gotta Give: 0
Samantha Morton - In America: 0
Charlize Theron - Monster: 33
Naomi Watts - 21 Grams: 2

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog: 9
Patricia Clarkson - Pieces Of April: 0
Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River: 2
Holly Hunter - Thirteen: 1
Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain: 23

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Brother Bear: 0
Finding Nemo: 33
The Triplets of Belleville: 0

Achievement In Art Direction
Girl With A Pearl Earring: 2
The Last Samurai: 2
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 26
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 2
Seabiscuit: 1

Achievement In Cinematography
Cesar Charlone - City Of God: 7
John Seale - Cold Mountain: 2
Eduardo Serra - Girl With A Pearl Earring: 0
Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 11
John Schwartzman - Seabiscuit: 13

Achievement In Costume Design
Girl With A Pearl Earring: 1
The Last Samurai: 8
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 24
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 0
Seabiscuit: 0

Achievement In Directing
Fernando Meirelles - City Of God: 0
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 33
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation: 1
Peter Weir - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 0
Clint Eastwood - Mystic River: 0

Best Documentary Feature
Balseros: 0
Capturing The Friedmans: 10.5
The Fog Of War: 12.5
My Architect: A Son’s Journey: 2
The Weather Underground: 0

Best Documentary Short Subject
Asylum: 11
Chernobyl Heart: 11
Ferry Tales: 1

Achievement In Film Editing
City Of God: 13
Cold Mountain: 0
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 15
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 4
Seabiscuit: 1

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
The Barbarian Invasions (Canada): 24
Evil (Sweden): 0
The Twilight Samurai (Japan): 1
Twin Sisters (The Netherlands): 0
Zelary (Czech Republic): 0

Achievement In Makeup
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 20
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 2
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl: 11

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Danny Elfman - Big Fish: 3
Gabriel Yared - Cold Mountain: 0
Thomas Newman - Finding Nemo: 3
James Horner - House Of Sand And Fog: 0
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 27

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Benoit Charest & Sylvain Chomet, "Belleville Rendez-Vous" - The Triplets of Belleville: 2
Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Fran Walsh, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 24
Michael McKean & Annette O'Toole, "A Kiss At The End Of The Rainbow" - A Mighty Wind: 6
T Bone Burnett & Elvis Costello, "Scarlet Tide" - Cold Mountain: 0
Sting, "You Will Be My Ain True Love" - Cold Mountain: 1

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 34
Lost In Translation: 0
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 0
Mystic River: 0
Seabiscuit: 0

Best Animated Short Film
Boundin': 2
Destino: 19
Gone Nutty: 0
Harvie Krumpet: 3
Nibbles: 1

Best Live Action Short Film
Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket): 10
Most (The Bridge): 2
Squash: 1
(A) Torzija ([A] Torsion): 3
Two Soldiers: 7

Achievement In Sound
The Last Samurai: 0
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 25
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 6
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl: 2
Seabiscuit: 0

Achievement In Sound Editing
Finding Nemo: 3
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 22
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl: 7

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 31
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 1
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl: 1

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini - American Splendor: 1.5
Braulio Mantovani - City Of God: 4
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 13
Brian Helgeland - Mystic River: 12.5
Gary Ross - Seabiscuit: 2

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Denys Arcand - The Barbarian Invasions: 0
Steven Knight - Dirty Pretty Things: 1
Andrew Stanton & Bob Peterson - Finding Nemo: 1
Jim, Kirsten & Naomi Sheridan - In America: 2
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation: 29

Final Counts

The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 11
Mystic River: 2
The Barbarian Invasions: 1
Cold Mountain: 1
Destino: 1
Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket): 1
Finding Nemo: 1
The Fog Of War: 1
Lost In Translation: 1
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 1
Monster: 1
Seabiscuit: 1
Asylum: 0 or 1
Chernobyl Heart: 0 or 1

Edit: Updated to include william-scooter's last-minute picks.

 

[william-scooter]

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Bill Murray - Lost In Translation

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Naomi Watts - 21 Grams

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Finding Nemo

Achievement In Art Direction
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Cinematography
John Schwartzman - Seabiscuit

Achievement In Costume Design
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Directing
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Documentary Feature
pass

Best Documentary Short Subject
pass

Achievement In Film Editing
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
pass

Achievement In Makeup
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Thomas Newman - Finding Nemo

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Michael McKean & Annette O'Toole, "A Kiss At The End Of

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Animated Short Film
pass

Best Live Action Short Film
pass

Achievement In Sound
Trying to limit myself to things I have seen, my predictions are:

The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Achievement In Sound Editing
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

 

[Arman]

Best Picture -
Will Win: ROTK
Should Win: ROTK
Oscar-worthies not nominated: City of God, Kill Bill Volume 1 and Raising Victor Vargas
Oscar-unworthy B Movie nominee: Seabiscuit
Mediocre "Oscar-worthy" nominee: Mystic River
Most Surprising Oscar omission: In America

Best Director -
Will Win & Should Win: Peter Jackson (and/or Meirelles)

Best Actor -
Will Win - Johnny Depp (POTC)
Should Win - Ben Kingsley (HoSaF)
Oscar-worthies not nominated: Penn (21 Grams), Giamatti (American Splendor)
Oscar-unworthy nominee: Jude Law (Cold Mountain)

Changed my mind from Kingsley to Depp. Penn is heavy favorite to win but I'm joining the Depp bandwagon due to recent news of voters actively and openly supporting him.
(I am not going to be surprised with Kingsley's victory)

Best Actress -
Will win: Charlize Theron (Monster)
Should win: Keisha Castle Hughes (Whale Rider)
Oscar-worthies not nominated who are much better than Diane Keaton: Scarlett Johansson (LiT & GWaPE), Cate Blanchett (Veronica Guerin) (& even Gwyneth Paltrow for Sylvia)
Oscar-unworthy nominee: Diane Keaton (Somethings Gotta Give)

Only Keisha Castle Hughes can pull off an upset and prevent Theron from winning.

Best Supporting Actress -
Will win: Zellweger (Cold Mountain)
Should win: Shohreh Aghdashloo (House Of Sand And Fog)
Oscar-worthies not nominated who are better than all the nominees: Bolger sisters (In America) + Maria Bello (The Cooler)
Oscar unworthy nominee?: Patricia Clarkson (PoA)

Best Supporting Actor -
Will win: Tim Robbins (Mystic River)
Should win: Benicio del Toro (21 Grams)
Oscar-worthy not nominated and who should win: Peter Sarsgaard (Shattered Glass) (+ Sean Astin - ROTK)

Best Original Screenplay -
Will win: Lost in Translation
Should win: Lost in Translation

Best Adapted Screenplay -
Will win: ROTK
Should win: ROTK or City of God

Best Cinematography -
Will win: Seabiscuit
Should win: City of God
Oscar-worthy should had been nominated: ROTK

Best Editing -
Will win and should win: City of God

Best Costume Design -
Will win and should win: ROTK

Best Make-up -
Will win: POTC
Should win: POTC or ROTK

Best Foreign Film -
Will win: Barbarian Invasions
Should win: ?

Best Music Song & Score-

ROTK, ROTK, ROTK, ROTK

Best Full-length Animation
Will win: Finding Nemo
Should win: The Triplets of Belleville

Short Animated Film -
Will win: Destino
Should win: ?

Short Action Film -
Will win: The Red Jacket
Should win: ?

Best Sound Mixing -
Will win: ROTK
Should win: ROTK

Best Sound Editing -
Will win: M&C:TFSotW
Should win: M&C:TFSotW

Visual Effect -
Will win: ROTK
Should win: ROTK

Best Feature Documentary -
Will win: My Architect
Should win: ?

Best Short Documentart -
Will win: Asylum
Should win:?

 

[Arman]

Okay, I would really love to see the following upset wins:

Best Actor: Kingsley (HoSaF)
Best Actress: Hughes (Whale Rider)
Best Supporting Actor: Watanabe (TLS) or Del Toro (21 Grams)
Best Supporting Actress: Shohreh Aghdashloo (HOSaF)
Best Animation: Triplets of Belleville

2 or 3 Oscars for City of God

and I don't want upsets in Best Picture & Best Director categories (Meirelles should share the Best Director with Peter Jackson though).

 

[Dana Fillhart]

I believe I got 16 correct, 8 incorrect, for a 67% tally.

I got the following correct: Supporting Actor, Art Direction, Animated Feature, Visual Effects, Makeup, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Music (Original Score), Music (Best Song), Cinematography, Screenplay (Original), Director, Actress, Actor, and Picture.

I missed: Costume Design, Supporting Actress, Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short, Documentary Feature, Film Editing, and Screenplay (Adapted).

One of my better years, despite not having seen most of the films in the lesser categories (the docs and shorts, specifically).

 

[Tino]

I got 19 out of 24 right.:b I think that's my best year yet. One of the most satisfying Oscar shows ever!

Kudos to Peter Jackson and Co.!

 

[Craig S]

Hmm, Tino, I had you with 20/24, in 2nd place. Vickie was first, with 21.

Better double-check my data entry.

Edit: Yup, a double-punch in the Best Actor category. 19 is still good enough for 2nd place.

 

[Jason Harbaugh]

This was my best year ever, 20/24. Would have been 22/24 had I gone with my gut and just picked LOTR for Editing and Costumes. Figured I would give City of God and Last Samurai a chance with those.

Great Oscars this year.