NBA 2008-09 Regular Season Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)

[Andy Sheets]

Maybe I'm totally misjudging them but I don't think Orlando has a chance against Cleveland. Maybe if Cleveland is too rusty from all the rest...

Too bad the Rockets couldn't pull off the upset but they did an incredible job just getting so far. I thought their defense actually wasn't bad yesterday (although they failed the main test against the Lakers, which is to shut down Gasol first, which usually causes their offense to crumble as a whole) but they just don't have enough scorers on the team without Yao and McGrady. It'll be interesting to see if Denver can capitalize on what the Rockets were doing to the Lakers.

Oh, and an interesting stat: Since the team was founded, no team that has eliminated the Rockets in the playoffs (not in the NBA finals) has EVER won the NBA championship. Even when the Rockets lose, they still win. Sorry Lakers

 

[Ockeghem]

I find that fascinating. I thought for certain that the Lakers must have eliminated Houston over the past twenty or twenty-five years and then went on to win in the Final. Wow.

 

[Andy Sheets]

The Lakers have beaten them a few times since 1990, twice by the Showtime team and twice by the Shaq Lakers, but those have always been years that other teams ended up winning the whole thing. I wouldn't be surprised if that kind of stat was also true of other teams, just because of how many teams there are and the difficulty of actually winning a championship, but I just thought it was amusing

 

[Ockeghem]

Denver came out of the gates very fast and very accurate tonight. That first quarter was a lot of fun to watch. The fourth quarter is really a battle now, with the Nuggets holding on to a slight lead. This one may go down to the wire, which IMO favors Los Angeles. But I have a good feeling about Denver in this series -- much better than I did several days ago.

 

[John Gido]

What a great game! If Denver made their foul shots in the first half, I believe that the outcome would have been different.

Although I really would like to see Denver win this series, it really doesn't matter because I don't think that either team can beat this year's Cavs.

 

[Ockeghem]

John,

I go back-and-forth regarding the Cavaliers. Sure, they looked good in the first two rounds. But who did they play? They haven't been challenged. In the regular season they were 0-2 against the Lakers, 2-0 against Denver, and 1-2 against Orlando, for a combined 3-4 -- not exactly dominant in my book.

I don't see any way the Lakers will not win the NBA championship this year. They are just too good in so many areas, and they can win in Cleveland. If I think what will happen actually occurs, the Finals are going to be one big disappointment for me, and for LeBron. But since Boston won it all last year, I suppose I can live with that for a short time.

Addendum: If the Cavaliers make it to the Finals, they MUST win the first two games at home, and take the series in six games. If they make the Finals and split the first two games, the series is all but over.

 

[Ockeghem]

Okay, I watched every second of the Cleveland - Orlando game tonight. Several months ago in this thread, I predicted that if these two teams met in the playoffs, the Magic would win the series. After watching tonight's game, I don't see Cleveland winning this series. My second scenario above for this series may be a bit generous toward Cleveland. After seeing what occurred tonight, I think it entirely possible that this series could be over sooner than most of us think.

The Magic took the Cavaliers out of their game. The league's best defense allowed approximately sixteen points more than they usually do per game. The final score (107-106) was not indicative of a 'Cleveland' game. While watching both defenses tonight, I became even more convinced that the Cavaliers, as good as LeBron is, are really just an average team from number two (Moe Williams) downward. The rest of the team seemed to be a bit tentative out there tonight, and they relied very heavily on the MVP down the stretch (IMO too much of the time).

The Magic, including the playoffs, are 6-2 (75%) against Cleveland, Los Angeles, and Denver this year. Orlando is one of two teams that have the best chance of defeating Los Angeles should the Lakers reach the Final. The other was just ousted by the Magic a few nights ago.

Orlando vs. Cleveland: 3-1 (includes playoffs)
Orlando vs. Denver: 1-1 (each team won on the other team's court)
Orlando vs. Los Angeles: 2-0 (this is the most impressive stat for me)

Good luck to Cleveland. I think this series will be their worst nightmare, and may even make last year's seven-game series loss to the Celtics look pretty good by comparison. I hope I'm wrong, because I'd really love to see LeBron win a ring. But I don't think it will happen this year.

 

[Mark Leiter]

As a Magic fan I am in heaven right now. Nothing will be able to take the shine off my day today. But, as a NBA fan I know this series is far from over. If Orlando is gonna win this series I think they need to do it in six. I just don't like thier chances for a game seven in Clevland.

I have always said, one of the most under-rated aspects of the NBA game is how teams match-up to one another. You saw this this year by Otrlando getting swept by an inferier Detroit team, and you're seeing now now as Orlando plays Cleveland. Cleveland just dosen't match up well against Orlando. That is why they are 3 and 9 in the LBJ era against them.

IMO the reason why is that while the Cavs have quality bigs, none of them can score. Which means that Howard never has to play 1 on 1 defense against Cleveland. He's free to roam the paint playing back-up D for everybody else on the Magic squad. With the paint clogged up like that it turns the cavs into a jump shooting team and that plays right into the hands of the Magic.

Of course Cleveland have LBJ and Mo Williams, but after that the talent on their team drops off big time. The cavs bench got dominated last night. If Orlando can hold onto Home court they'll close it out in six. If it goes back to Cleveland for game seven, I think LBJ will be enough to get the Cavs into the finals.

 

[John Gido]

Wow!!!!!!!!!!!

Cavs go down at home in Game 1. Only by a point, but a win is a win. I didn't get a chance to see the game, only the highlights. Nice comback.

Congrats to the Magic but it is still going to be a long, hard fight to beat them 3 more times.

Let's hope Denver can take tonight's Game 2 and go back home with the series tied.

 

[Walter C]

Yeah, I caught the last minute of the game, and it just seemed like the Magic just scored at ease, while the Cavaliers had to try really hard to score.

 

[Ockeghem]

BTW, my comments regarding the Lakers in post #246 above was before I was convinced that Cleveland would not make the NBA Finals. There are only two teams in the NBA that Los Angeles did not defeat this year, and Orlando is one of them. Much like Mark's comments regarding matchups being underrated, I feel that regular-season results are underrated. The Lakers lost to the Celtics four straight times last year before finally defeating them (by six) in Game 3 of the Finals. Having swept a team during the regular season that one may eventually meet in the playoffs is IMO psychologically invaluable to a team, and will give the Magic all the confidence it would need should they meet the Lakers in the Finals. Last year, almost all of the experts were picking the Lakers to defeat the Celtics in the Finals. (Thank you, Tim Legler. ) Knowing that Boston was 2-0 against Los Angeles during the regular season, I was very confident that Boston would defeat them and win their 17th championship.

 

[Ockeghem]

In the who'da thunk it department:

A couple of days ago, Cleveland was invincible, and Denver was mowing down opponents fairly regularly. Now both teams are in what amount to must-win situations in game two. Not too many teams have rallied back from being down 0-2.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

Regular season results can sometimes be an indicator of matchup issues, but other times (especially between conferences) a loss can also just be attributed to a "scheduling loss" -- such as one team being on the 2nd half of a back-to-back, or 3 in 4 nights stretch. So, you always have to look at the context of the defeat, too.

There are definitely some teams that do not match up well, though. Just looking at the local Pistons, for example, they have always had Orlando's number, while they always struggle against Utah.

In Cleveland's case against the Magic, Game 2 will be very telling. Is this going to be a match up problem, or just a case of the Cavs being rusty after a long layoff? Also, consideration needs to be given to the fact that Cleveland had two very easy opponents so far -- they have dominated a declining Detroit team for a couple of years now (and the Pistons were not a good team this season), and Atlanta was a very inexperienced playoff team. The Magic are their first real test in this year's playoffs.

 

[Ockeghem]

Scott,

I don't doubt this for a moment. However, I do not believe for a moment that teams that are (e.g.) 2-0 against other teams are thinking of their schedule when they defeated them, or the context of the defeat (although sports writers think of and write about such things). I do think they are thinking that they have defeated them, and that can IMO go a long way to building a given team's confidence in the playoffs.

As for game two, I really don't know. The Cavs finished seven games ahead of the Magic, and four ahead of Boston (I only mention the second part because I wanted to do so). I do hope for Cleveland's sake that they win game two; otherwise, the series is all but over.

 

[Mark Leiter]

I think a more important trend to consider than the Cavs troubles with the magic are how they handled the other dominant teams this year. I consider Orlando, LA, Boston and Cleveland to be the only teams that were consistently dominant the entire year. (Denver became that only after the Billiups trade) So how did they fair against one another?

La was 4-2
Boston was 4-6
Orlando was 6-3
Cleveland was 3-6

Once you get rid of the wins over the league’s bottom feeders, Cleveland's record doesn’t look nearly so impressive. Now I'm not ready to call them overrated, their 39-1 home record is damn impressive I don't care who they played, and LBJ is bar none to most dominating player in the league right now. Sorry Kobe fans but it is simply true. Kobe's turned into a jump-shooter while James drive into the paint almost every time either making buckets or getting fouled or both. LBJ is what Kobe was 3 or 4 years ago. I can't help but wonder of they just aren't quite as good as people think they are.


Yeah I saw him. Every time I saw him fling up one of those 18 footers I thought to myself “That is exactly the shot Orlando want’s Cleveland to take.” He may even make one or two, but if that’s the shot that beats the Magic then they simply weren’t meant to win.

I wonder if he just feels over matched. If I remember correctly, he wasn’t the cavs starting center. They were supposed to start Ben Wallace with Ilg. Backing him up. Didn’t Wallace get hurt or something? Isn’t that why Ilg. is the starter?

 

[Mark Leiter]

I am really looking foward to tonight game. I thought Denver had a very good shot at taking this series. but they really found a way to give that first game away. I hope they can settle down and make a good series out of this.

 

[Aaron Silverman]

IIRC the Celtics were 4-2 with KG (both losses to LA) and 0-4 without him, which makes the Cavs look even worse.

I still think that both conference finals will be interesting series, though.

 

[Ockeghem]

Mark,

Agreed. I kind of hinted at this type of an analysis above (posts #246 and #247), where I wrote that Cleveland is not exactly dominant in my book. Thanks for the additional insights.

Yeah, Ben Wallace was injured for quite a while. Somewhat interestingly to me too is that Boston gained only one game over Cleveland when the Celtics had their nineteen-game winning streak before Christmas.

BTW, Cleveland was 39-2 at home this year. (Yeah, I don't like counting the final loss either, but we have to to be complete -- besides, the Sixers are Walter C's team. ).

Remember too what happened the last time Cleveland and Orlando played during the regular season? Orlando defeated the Cavs 116-87. I believe the Magic's lead was nearly forty points before the final score became (relatively speaking) a lot closer.

 

[Mark Leiter]

Some more thoughts about Ilgauskas, It would be an interesting adjusment for Cleveland to give Ilg the bal in the post. Doing that would force howard to defend his own man. That in turn might open up things for everyone else to get in the paint.

Of course this stratagy present some obvious problems. Does Ilgauskas even have a post-up game? And by doing this they would be taking the ball out of Lebron's hands. I'm not sure how many times he would stand for that.

It definately will be interesting to see what6 adjustments the Cavs make for game 2.

 

[Ockeghem]

Denver is giving Los Angeles another good game. It didn't start out that way, with the Nuggets trailing by fourteen in the second quarter. But now Denver is up by three points (99-96) with about two minutes to play. This game is again going down to the wire, which probably isn't good for the Nuggets.

It's currently 103-101, Denver. There are 0:29 seconds left. Can anyone say ... Kobe?

Whew! Denver wins 106-103, and the series is tied 1-1. Now it looks to be a good series.